Acuity Brands (AYI)

NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$318.72+0.47%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Acuity Brands’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	1.17B
EPS	—	5.069
Quarter ending 2027-02-28
Revenue	—	1.11B
EPS	—	4.428
Annual ending 2027-08-31
Revenue	—	4.82B
EPS	—	21.348
Annual ending 2028-08-31
Revenue	—	5.06B
EPS	—	23.304

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Strong operating cash flow and capital allocation	Cash flow is strong, with $520M generated in nine months and active share buybacks.	Broken	Operating cash flow falls below $520M over next nine months	Cash from operations: $305.4M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Operating cash flow >= $520M over next nine months. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 1, 2026305,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating profit growth and margin improvement	Profit improves with better cost control, shown by operating profit rising from $110M to $193M in a year.	Improving	Operating profit growth falls below 8% YoY next year	Operating income: $250.7M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Operating profit increases at least 8% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Oct 1, 2026250,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 5% per year	A primary condition in Acuity Brands's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year	Revenue growth: 2.92% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 1, 20262.919527 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$5.06B

$5.13B → $5.06B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$5,132,931,526	2 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$5,096,264,859	2 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$5,092,398,192	2 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$5,089,911,704	2 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$5,084,226,204	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$5,084,226,204	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$5,055,151,445	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$5,055,508,773	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$5,055,508,773	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$5,055,508,773	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$5,055,508,773	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$5,055,508,773	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	3
2026-06-01	6	4
2026-07-01	5	4
2026-08-01	5	4
2026-09-01	5	4
2026-10-01	4	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 20

$380.00New observation · no comparable prior

OppenheimerOct 8 · prior Jun 26

$465.00 → $415.00-10.8%

Robert W. BairdOct 2 · prior Jun 26

$390.00 → $348.00-10.8%

$0$255.75$511.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Strong operating cash flow and capital allocationPublished status: Broken
Operating profit growth and margin improvementOperating income: $250.7M
Revenue growth of at least 5% per yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Acuity Brands outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on innovation and market expansion. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent earnings performance and management's commitment to growth and profitability.

What's priced into Acuity Brands

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with AYI being seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully anticipate the potential for further growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, as management is on track with its priorities of driving growth and enhancing profitability. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings, given the recent performance of industry peers.

What Acuity Brands hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like ETN, VRT, and BE. If these companies continue to perform well, AYI could benefit from positive sector momentum. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact AYI's outlook.