AMREP Corp (AXR)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-09
$22.96-0.22%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS remains near or above $1.78 in FY27: FY27 EPS $1.55 vs $1.78 target.
AMREP is cheap with a PE of 10.6 versus peers at 13.8. It recently beat earnings twice, showing some operational strength. The company has stable management and a history of positive cash flow. A modest recovery in revenue could unlock value.
Revenue is expected to decline about 23% next year. The sector faces headwinds and the company has fragile quality metrics. Earnings estimates have been revised down recently. These factors could pressure the stock further.
The stock price reflects about a 23% revenue decline and is roughly 24% below our model's valuation level. Our view aligns with the expected weak revenue but sees potential for stabilization if earnings hold.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.78 in FY27
Breaks if: revenue decline worse than -7% YoY in FY27
Breaks if: PE rises above 13.77 without fundamental improvement
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
AXR represents a long-term thesis with a focus on revenue growth and operational improvement. The current state is mixed, with some positive changes in company momentum but ongoing challenges in financial performance.
The market currently prices AXR as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance.
Management aims to drive revenue growth and improve operating income, but recent results show a decline in net income despite revenue increases. The company has experienced volatility in cash flow, which may hinder consistent operational performance.
The thesis hinges on key factors such as the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates, which could benefit AXR, and the performance of sector leaders that may influence market sentiment. Additionally, any guidance cuts in the upcoming earnings call could negatively impact expectations.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AXR's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and improve financial stability. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 22.7 points (from -47.0 to -24.3) after fresh earnings.
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. The company momentum rose after fresh earnings. Confidence changed from medium to high. Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort, which is worth watching.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.