AMEXIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
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Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow yield remains near 17% | A supporting condition in AVALON HOLDINGS CORP's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.17 FCF yield. | Broken | Free cash flow yield falls below 0.17 | Free cash flow yield: 12.91% As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202612.91 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: AWX:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain profit margin near current levels | A primary condition in AVALON HOLDINGS CORP's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain profit margin near current TTM levels. | Improving | Profit margin falls significantly below current TTM levels | Operating margin: 6.5% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margin near current TTM levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Aug 7, 20266.498229 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3f4b89b7-2644-4b45-9467-dca4d17037fa. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 2.7% annually | A primary condition in AVALON HOLDINGS CORP's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.7% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 2.7% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsMonthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk, loss-making business working through a profitability improvement story, rather than an established durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue and operating results have improved, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed. AWX screens cheap versus peers, while a separate measure shows a 29% premium versus peers; the expectations gap is negative, and confidence in these estimates is medium. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, but that does not remove the business and sector risks.
Over the multi-year view, management’s repeated focus on revenue growth and profitability has some evidence of progress: revenue and operating income rose between 2025-Q1 and 2026-Q2, and net income moved from a loss to a profit. Profitability progress is still mixed, while near-term risk has risen to elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
The thesis depends on whether revenue growth continues and operating results improve enough to make profitability more consistent. Near term, results from sector bellwethers such as WM, RSG, and CLH may signal whether the Industrials backdrop remains supportive; materially slower GDP growth would be an added risk. The extended credit-line maturity offers more time under the agreement, but the evidence does not establish how much it changes the business outlook.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AWX shows measurable operating progress, but the loss-making history, elevated risk, and sector headwind keep the long-term thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.