ATI Inc. (ATI)

Q: What's priced into ATI Inc. (ATI) stock?

ATI is expensive versus peers, with a 1.38 premium, and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence labels current pricing as justified with low fragility, but model confidence is also low, so the valuation case is uncertain.

Q: What does the ATI Inc. (ATI) outlook hinge on?

Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued growth and margin improvement in aerospace and defense. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance is a key downside risk, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from industrial bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.

NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$156.88-3.06%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ATI Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.25 → 6.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EBITDA	$305M–$315Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.41B
EPS	—	1.525
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.14B
EPS	—	5.125
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.67B
EPS	—	6.343

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow remains at least $350M in 2025	Free cash flow is solid, with $350M expected in 2025.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $330M in 2025	Free cash flow: $63.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $350M free cash flow. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202663,200,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income increases to at least $164M in Q1 2026	Profit margins improve, with operating income rising $16.9M to $163.8M in Q1 2026.	Intact	Operating income falls below $146.9M in Q1 2026	Operating income: $220M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $163.8M operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026220,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fca542db-eddf-41d7-952e-4409a4d12506. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management emphasized enhancing operating income in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income rose from $161 million in 2025-Q2 to $220 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting volume growth and pricing. The trajectory is delivering consistent improvement as stated. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 12% annually	A primary condition in ATI Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 10.58% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202610.584006 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fca542db-eddf-41d7-952e-4409a4d12506. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.15 billion in 2026-Q1 to $1.26 billion in 2026-Q2, an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by aerospace and defense markets. Backlog increased 18% year-over-year to $4.4 billion. Management consistently emphasizes growth in aerospace and defense, and the financials show delivering momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
PE ratio remains below 52 and valuation stays justified	A supporting condition in ATI Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <= 52 PE TTM.	Broken	PE ratio rises above 60 or valuation becomes stretched	P/E (TTM): 39.12x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202639.1222 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: ATI:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.34

$5.42 → $6.34 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.67B

$5.46B → $5.67B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-07	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-11	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-13	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$6.24	$5,637,706,762	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$6.24	$5,637,706,762	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$6.24	$5,637,706,762	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$6.24	$5,637,706,762	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$6.24	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$6.25	$5,639,436,090	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$6.25	$5,639,436,090	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$6.25	$5,639,436,090	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$6.25	$5,639,436,090	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$6.25	$5,639,436,090	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$6.25	$5,639,456,086	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$6.25	$5,639,456,086	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-17	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-18	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$6.34	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$6.34	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$6.34	$5,665,000,140	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$6.34	$5,665,000,140	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$6.34	$5,665,000,140	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$6.34	$5,665,000,140	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	0	0
2026-06-01	9	0	0
2026-07-01	9	0	0
2026-08-01	9	0	0
2026-09-01	9	0	0
2026-10-01	9	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

KeyBancOct 8 · prior Aug 12

$258.00 → $228.00-11.6%

$0$141.90$283.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow remains at least $350M in 2025Free cash flow: $63.2M
Operating income increases to at least $164M in Q1 2026Operating income: $220M
Revenue grows at least 12% annuallyPublished status: Under Pressure
PE ratio remains below 52 and valuation stays justifiedPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ATI Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ATI is an industrial growth and execution story, supported by stronger recent results and growing aerospace and defense demand. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and the risk label has recently risen from moderate to elevated.

What's priced into ATI Inc.

ATI is expensive versus peers, with a 1.38 premium, and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence labels current pricing as justified with low fragility, but model confidence is also low, so the valuation case is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show momentum: second-quarter revenue rose 11% year over year, backlog grew 18%, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded. Management’s stated priorities are on track, but a recent history of a deep miss and peer misses remain risks; a guidance cut after the recent increase would also damage credibility.

What ATI Inc. hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued growth and margin improvement in aerospace and defense. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance is a key downside risk, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from industrial bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

ATI’s operating momentum supports an intact 1-to-3-year thesis, but its expensive relative valuation, elevated risk, and sector headwind make execution important. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EBITDA	$305M–$315Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.41B
EPS	—	1.525
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.14B
EPS	—	5.125
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.67B
EPS	—	6.343

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.34

$5.42 → $6.34 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.67B

$5.46B → $5.67B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-07	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-11	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-13	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$5.42	$5,461,913,970	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$6.13	$5,634,236,086	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$6.24	$5,637,706,762	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$6.24	$5,637,706,762	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$6.24	$5,637,706,762	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$6.24	$5,637,706,762	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$6.24	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$6.25	$5,639,436,090	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$6.25	$5,639,436,090	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$6.25	$5,639,436,090	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$6.25	$5,639,436,090	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$6.25	$5,639,436,090	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$6.25	$5,639,436,086	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$6.25	$5,639,456,086	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$6.25	$5,639,456,086	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-17	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-18	$6.33	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$6.34	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$6.34	$5,663,363,926	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$6.34	$5,665,000,140	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$6.34	$5,665,000,140	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$6.34	$5,665,000,140	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$6.34	$5,665,000,140	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings