Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ASCENDIS PHARMA A/S (ASND)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23
$243.37+0.16%
Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.07 → 9.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter ending 2026-12-30 | ||
| Revenue | — | 412.5M |
| EPS | — | 1.083 |
| Annual ending 2026-12-31 | ||
| Revenue | — | 1.37B |
| EPS | — | 14.623 |
| Annual ending 2027-12-31 | ||
| Revenue | — | 1.99B |
| EPS | — | |
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful reimbursement for TransCon therapies | A supporting condition in ASCENDIS PHARMA A/S's published investment case. The stated target is maintain reimbursement status. | Intact | loss of reimbursement for key therapies | Reimbursement maintained Company won Canadian reimbursement for Yorvipath and settled a patent fight, reinforcing the regulatory driver. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
The evidence does not establish whether ASND is a durable compounder, cyclical business, or another investment type. Its thesis state is insufficient because recent financial-performance history is not available, and overall confidence is low.
The snapshot does not provide valuation or market-expectation evidence, so it is not possible to assess whether the shares look cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. No pricing fragility signals were identified, but that alone does not show what expectations are already reflected.
Near term, earnings risk merits attention: recent surprises are described as erratic, and the industry has a high miss rate. The Healthcare sector backdrop has improved, but the evidence does not provide enough company-level results or management execution details to describe ASND’s multi-year fundamental path.
A weakening jobs report could increase recession concerns and weigh on cyclical Healthcare names. Continued strong results and guidance from VRTX, REGN, and MRNA could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis is unresolved: sector conditions have improved, but company-specific evidence and valuation context are too limited for a firm read. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management figures unavailable.
| A primary condition in ASCENDIS PHARMA A/S's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.35 billion. |
| Under Pressure |
| falls below $1.2 billion in FY26 |
Revenue: EUR 344.903M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.35 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026344,902,564 EUR · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Completion of the $400 million share buyback | A $400 million share buyback shows confidence in its value. | Intact | buyback program is suspended or significantly reduced | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.94 → $9.00 · observed estimates
$1.97B → $1.99B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.94 | $1,967,676,670 | 5 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | Unavailable | $1,966,924,740 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | Unavailable | $1,966,925,200 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.45 | $1,960,318,665 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | Unavailable | $1,966,925,200 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | Unavailable | $1,966,925,200 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | Unavailable | $1,966,925,200 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-11 | $10.45 | $1,960,318,665 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | Unavailable | $1,966,925,200 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | Unavailable | $1,966,925,200 | 4 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.45 | $1,960,318,665 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.45 | $1,960,318,665 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.45 | $1,960,318,665 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.45 | $1,960,318,665 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.45 | $1,960,318,665 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.45 | $1,960,318,665 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.45 | $1,960,318,665 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.78 | $2,030,829,563 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.78 | $2,030,829,563 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.78 | $2,030,829,563 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.78 | $2,030,829,563 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.78 | $2,030,846,953 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.71 | $2,020,901,252 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.71 | $2,020,901,252 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.71 | $2,020,901,252 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.74 | $2,022,964,155 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.74 | $2,022,964,155 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.74 | $2,022,964,155 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.68 | $2,010,932,933 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.14 | $2,008,162,229 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.14 | $2,007,451,952 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.17 | $2,013,879,096 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.17 | $2,013,879,096 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.17 | $2,013,879,096 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.17 | $2,013,879,096 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.16 | $2,011,852,207 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.17 | $2,013,394,029 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.17 | $2,013,809,801 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.18 | $2,015,795,427 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.16 | $2,011,065,994 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.16 | $2,011,065,994 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.16 | $2,011,065,994 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.15 | $2,008,883,178 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.09 | $2,000,485,117 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.08 | $1,998,960,621 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.08 | $1,998,960,621 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.08 | $1,998,960,621 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.03 | $1,988,202,530 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.01 | $1,982,323,661 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.06 | $1,985,681,590 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.07 | $1,987,174,963 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.07 | $1,987,174,963 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.04 | $1,979,895,895 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.04 | $1,979,941,101 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.04 | $1,979,941,101 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.06 | $1,985,230,226 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.09 | $1,992,372,162 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.08 | $1,988,710,605 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.07 | $1,987,227,170 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.08 | $1,989,485,879 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.01 | $1,974,161,846 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.01 | $1,975,717,441 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.03 | $1,979,061,492 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.04 | $1,980,452,459 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.01 | $1,974,749,111 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.04 | $1,981,825,487 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.99 | $1,972,199,943 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.99 | $1,972,199,943 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.01 | $1,976,374,453 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.02 | $1,979,400,787 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.03 | $1,980,821,173 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.02 | $1,977,850,472 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.06 | $1,986,901,161 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.06 | $1,990,448,064 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.06 | $1,990,448,064 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.16 | $2,002,090,693 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.16 | $2,002,090,693 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.17 | $2,004,963,389 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.17 | $2,005,054,724 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.17 | $2,004,228,653 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.13 | $2,001,480,764 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.00 | $1,991,746,824 | 11 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.