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ARXIS INC (ARXS)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-07
$42.49-8.94%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
The bottom line
ARXS aims to grow through strategic acquisitions, which is key to its value. The company recently announced an $890 million acquisition, supporting its growth strategy. It trades at a valuation that appears cheap compared to peers. If ARXS cuts guidance on its next call, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-07
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Market cap
- $17.42B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2026-03-24
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
The thesis
(what has to stay true — and what would break it)The thesis
The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.
CompounderWatch
The bull case
Arxis grows by buying companies like MagCanica. It aims for $1.87 billion revenue in 2026. Profit should be near $720 million EBITDA. The company is profitable and expanding.
The bear case
Arxis may fail to grow revenue or profit as planned. Acquisitions might not add value. Market headwinds could hurt sales and margins.
What's priced in
The price is about 6% below our fair value of $45. The market expects steady performance in line with guidance.
What has to stay true
- Expand product portfolio via strategic acquisitionsOn track
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $42.49. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$45.00
Range $45.00 – $45.00
vs price: -6% below
Method agreement : high · 1 method
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for ARXS right now, so treat our $45 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts target $39–$55. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-6%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$45.00
range $45.00 – $45.00
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
(median $45.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Management & capital allocation
neutral5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=3267).
57th pctl · Industrials
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-07.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -3.4% / 30d, n=6for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.19 (-3.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · Weeklyheadwind-4.1%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-07
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- #1
Growth through strategic acquisitions
GrowthExpand product portfolio and market presence by acquiring complementary companies, such as MagCanica Inc.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$157.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,584.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-07-07
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company is advancing through strategic acquisitions. It also reported record first-quarter results and initiated full-year revenue guidance of $1.86 billion to $1.88 billion. There are no current threats to this improved outlook.
as of 2026-07-07
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for adjusted EBITDA reaching $720M to $730M in 2026
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA helps measure how well a company is doing. Meeting this target shows good cost control.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA was at least $180 million for Q2. This shows progress towards the full-year target.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA was under $160 million. This points to issues with cost control.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-041mo agoPulse 2.0
Advances: Growth through strategic acquisitions
Acquisition aligns with growth through strategic acquisitions objective.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting ARXS and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ARXS raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently INITIATED as of 2026-05-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ARXS cuts guidance on the next call (currently INITIATED as of 2026-05-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping ARXS and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits ARXS and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-021mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On May 29, 2026, Arxis, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Orion Merger Sub, Inc., a Minnesota corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Arxis (the “Merger Sub”), Omnetics Connector Corporation, a Minnesota corporation (“Omnetics”), and Gary Jacobs, President of Omnetics, in his capacity as shareholder representative (the “Shareholder Representa…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.