Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$58.02-0.58%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	45.76M
EPS	—	-1.366
Annual ending 2027-09-30
Revenue	—	330.13M
EPS	—	-4.856
Annual ending 2028-09-30
Revenue	—	666.07M
EPS	—	-2.81

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
REDEMPLO revenue stabilizes or grows	The company aims to strengthen commercial presence for REDEMPLO despite revenue falling to $73.7M in Q2 2026.	Improving	quarterly REDEMPLO revenue falls below $70M next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. REDEMPLO prescriptions grew from over 100 in 2025-Q4 to more than 400 by 2026-Q1, with prescription volume roughly doubling in 2026-Q2. The company secured marketing authorizations in Europe and Australia and established favorable U.S. payer policies. The trajectory shows delivering commercial growth and expanding market access. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS loss narrows from current levels	A primary condition in Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss improves to better than -$0.80 next 4 quarters.	Broken	EPS loss worsens beyond -$1.0 next 4 quarters	Diluted EPS: $-1.36 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss improves to better than -$0.80 next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-1.36 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9cc8d1dc-d547-406b-9942-558633f6b93e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management maintains stable execution and hires support growth	Recent positive hires and stable management support recovery.	Intact	Major management departures or negative leadership news	0 major departures vs 0 allowed No major departures; positive director hire; strong pipeline news. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$-2.81

$-2.95 → $-2.81 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$0.67B

$0.74B → $0.67B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-02	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-03	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-04	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-05	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-06	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-07	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-08	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-09	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-10	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-11	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-12	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-13	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-14	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-15	$-2.95	$737,296,843	7 / 10
2026-10-16	$-2.81	$666,067,159	7 / 10
2026-10-17	$-2.81	$666,067,159	7 / 10
2026-10-18	$-2.81	$666,067,159	8 / 11
2026-10-19	$-2.81	$666,067,159	8 / 11
2026-10-20	$-2.81	$666,067,159	8 / 11
2026-10-21	$-2.81	$666,067,159	8 / 11
2026-10-22	$-2.81	$666,067,159	8 / 11
2026-10-23	$-2.81	$666,067,159	8 / 11
2026-10-24	$-2.81	$666,067,159	8 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	2
2026-06-01	11	2
2026-07-01	12	2
2026-08-01	12	0
2026-09-01	13	1
2026-10-01	14	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15

$109.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$59.95$119.90

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

REDEMPLO revenue stabilizes or growsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS loss narrows from current levelsPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a clinical-stage biotechnology business with an emerging commercial product, so the thesis combines pipeline execution with the challenge of building sales. The multi-year view is mixed: management priorities show progress, but the company remains loss-making and recent performance has lagged its industry cohort.

What's priced into Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals

ARWR carries a durable premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning the evidence points to expectations running ahead of what the model supports. The premium is not flagged as especially fragile, but the valuation leaves less room for disappointing execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, REDEMPLO prescriptions and broader market access offer evidence of commercial progress, while pipeline enrollment, new trials, and licensing activity support development. The balance sheet has strengthened, but ARWR remains loss-making, and an earnings miss in August plus a 42% estimated miss probability make the next report a notable risk.

What Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining REDEMPLO’s prescription growth and advancing RNAi candidates through clinical development. Near-term sector support could strengthen if healthcare bellwethers continue to report strong results, while weaker jobs data or weaker bellwether results could weigh on the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

ARWR has real commercial and pipeline progress, backed by improved financial resources, but its premium valuation and uneven earnings leave execution as the central question for the multi-year thesis. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.