Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$38.67-1.07%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Earnings per share at least $2.65 in 2026: Q2 FY26 EPS 71% vs 86% consensus (-17.4%).
Arrow Financial grew EPS to $0.85 in 2025. It aims for $2.65 EPS in 2026. The Adirondack Bank deal should add profits. Dividends stay steady at $0.30 per share.
Profit growth could slow if the Adirondack deal fails. Dividends might be cut if earnings weaken.
The price is about 4% above our fair value near $40. We see modest growth priced in but expect stable earnings and dividends.
Breaks if: Acquisition fails or does not add EPS accretion by FY26 end
Breaks if: Dividend falls below $0.30 per share quarterly
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a moderate-risk bet in the financial sector, focusing on the integration of a recent acquisition and maintaining dividend stability. The current thesis state is mixed, with recent performance lacking sufficient history for a clear direction.
The market appears to be pricing in a neutral valuation, reflecting a low level of fragility due to weak execution quality. There is a durable premium compared to peers, indicating that investors may expect some level of stability despite recent challenges.
Fundamentals may show mixed results in the near term, as management focuses on integrating the Adirondack acquisition and maintaining dividend payments. The recent earnings miss adds some uncertainty, but the low probability of a miss suggests a cautious outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has negatively impacted the outlook. This miss was significant, with earnings per share at 71% of consensus expectations.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue paying a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share to shareholders.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board declared and paid a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2, consistent with prior quarters. Dividend payments have been stable and management has maintained this capital allocation priority.
“Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share payable August 25, 2026.”
“Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share payable May 26, 2026.”
“Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share payable February 2026.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.65 in FY26
Continue paying a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share to shareholders.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board declared and paid a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2, consistent with prior quarters. Dividend payments have been stable and management has maintained this capital allocation priority.
“Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share payable August 25, 2026.”
“Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share payable May 26, 2026.”
“Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.29 per share payable February 2026.”
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC, which could influence AROW's trajectory. Additionally, the successful integration of the Adirondack acquisition and management's ability to deliver on growth priorities will be critical.
Over the next one to three years, AROW's performance will depend on management execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.