ARGENX SE (ARGX)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-16

$819.14-3.21%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ARGENX SE’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

38.54 → 39.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain a strong competitive position in autoimmune therapies	Analysts project revenue to reach about $6.19 billion in FY26, driven by strong demand in autoimmune diseases.	Intact	market share falls below 25%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful regulatory approval for Vyvgart	Sales for its leading therapy, Vyvgart, are expected to grow significantly.	Intact	regulatory approval is delayed beyond 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
FY26 revenue growth from Vyvgart and other therapies	A primary condition in ARGENX SE's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.19 billion USD.	Intact	revenue falls below $5.5 billion in FY26	Revenue: $2.816B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.19 billion USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20262,815,766,309 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$39.01

$37.19 → $39.01 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.70B

$7.31B → $7.70B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$37.19	$7,305,153,100	18 / 31
2026-07-25	$37.19	$7,305,153,100	18 / 31
2026-07-26	$37.73	$7,553,769,820	17 / 31
2026-07-27	$38.52	$7,581,803,370	18 / 31
2026-07-28	$38.52	$7,581,803,370	18 / 31
2026-07-29	$38.47	$7,575,416,810	17 / 30
2026-07-30	$38.47	$7,575,416,810	17 / 30
2026-07-31	$38.47	$7,575,416,810	17 / 30
2026-08-01	$39.12	$7,593,990,150	16 / 30
2026-08-02	$39.12	$7,593,990,150	16 / 30
2026-08-03	$39.12	$7,593,990,150	16 / 30
2026-08-04	$39.12	$7,579,357,390	16 / 29
2026-08-05	$38.81	$7,591,936,700	17 / 29
2026-08-06	$38.81	$7,591,936,700	17 / 29
2026-08-07	$37.55	$7,536,590,754	13 / 20
2026-08-08	$39.56	$7,610,741,130	16 / 29
2026-08-09	$39.56	$7,610,741,130	16 / 29
2026-08-10	$39.56	$7,610,741,130	16 / 29
2026-08-11	$37.55	$7,536,590,754	13 / 20
2026-08-12	$39.56	$7,610,741,130	16 / 29
2026-08-13	$39.56	$7,610,741,130	16 / 29
2026-08-14	$37.55	$7,536,590,754	13 / 20
2026-08-15	$37.55	$7,536,590,754	13 / 20
2026-08-16	$37.55	$7,536,590,754	13 / 20
2026-08-17	$37.55	$7,536,590,754	13 / 20
2026-08-18	$37.55	$7,536,590,754	13 / 20
2026-08-19	$37.55	$7,536,590,754	13 / 20
2026-08-20	$37.55	$7,536,590,754	13 / 20
2026-08-21	$38.44	$7,615,913,853	12 / 20
2026-08-22	$38.44	$7,615,913,853	13 / 20
2026-08-23	$38.44	$7,615,913,853	13 / 20
2026-08-24	$38.44	$7,615,913,853	13 / 20
2026-08-25	$38.46	$7,620,042,885	13 / 20
2026-08-26	$38.46	$7,620,042,885	13 / 20
2026-08-27	$38.46	$7,620,042,885	13 / 20
2026-08-28	$38.46	$7,620,042,885	13 / 20
2026-08-29	$38.58	$7,646,400,280	13 / 20
2026-08-30	$38.58	$7,646,400,287	13 / 20
2026-08-31	$38.58	$7,646,400,287	13 / 20
2026-09-01	$38.58	$7,646,400,287	13 / 20
2026-09-02	$38.76	$7,646,400,287	13 / 20
2026-09-03	$38.56	$7,646,790,848	13 / 20
2026-09-04	$38.60	$7,658,174,719	13 / 20
2026-09-05	$38.60	$7,658,174,719	13 / 20
2026-09-06	$38.60	$7,658,174,719	13 / 20
2026-09-07	$38.60	$7,658,174,719	13 / 20
2026-09-08	$38.60	$7,658,174,719	13 / 20
2026-09-09	$38.63	$7,658,174,719	13 / 20
2026-09-10	$38.63	$7,658,174,719	13 / 20
2026-09-11	$38.63	$7,658,174,719	13 / 20
2026-09-12	$38.63	$7,658,174,719	13 / 20
2026-09-13	$38.63	$7,658,174,719	13 / 20
2026-09-14	$38.63	$7,658,174,719	8 / 12
2026-09-15	$38.54	$7,662,181,171	8 / 12
2026-09-16	$38.54	$7,662,181,171	8 / 12
2026-09-17	$38.49	$7,659,310,203	8 / 12
2026-09-18	$38.49	$7,659,310,203	8 / 12
2026-09-19	$38.49	$7,659,310,203	8 / 12
2026-09-20	$38.48	$7,657,966,155	8 / 12
2026-09-21	$38.48	$7,657,966,155	8 / 12
2026-09-22	$38.44	$7,657,966,155	8 / 12
2026-09-23	$38.44	$7,657,966,264	8 / 12
2026-09-24	$38.44	$7,657,966,188	8 / 12
2026-09-25	$38.44	$7,657,966,188	8 / 12
2026-09-26	$38.44	$7,657,966,188	8 / 12
2026-09-27	$38.46	$7,662,867,059	8 / 12
2026-09-28	$38.46	$7,662,867,059	8 / 12
2026-09-29	$38.46	$7,662,867,059	8 / 12
2026-09-30	$38.46	$7,662,867,059	8 / 12
2026-10-01	$38.46	$7,662,867,069	8 / 12
2026-10-02	$38.46	$7,662,867,069	8 / 12
2026-10-03	$38.46	$7,662,867,069	8 / 12
2026-10-04	$38.46	$7,662,867,069	8 / 12
2026-10-05	$38.46	$7,662,867,069	8 / 12
2026-10-06	$38.46	$7,662,168,157	8 / 12
2026-10-07	$38.46	$7,662,169,709	8 / 12
2026-10-08	$38.46	$7,662,169,709	8 / 12
2026-10-09	$39.04	$7,687,625,077	8 / 12
2026-10-10	$39.04	$7,687,625,077	8 / 12
2026-10-11	$38.99	$7,692,093,745	8 / 12
2026-10-12	$38.99	$7,692,093,745	8 / 12
2026-10-13	$39.14	$7,704,594,975	8 / 12
2026-10-14	$39.11	$7,702,357,940	8 / 12
2026-10-15	$39.01	$7,702,809,518	8 / 12
2026-10-16	$39.01	$7,702,380,211	8 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	21	3	0
2026-06-01	22	3	0
2026-07-01	22	3	1
2026-08-01	22	3	1
2026-09-01	22	3	0
2026-10-01	22	3	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Oct 9

$1355.00 → $1356.00+0.1%

OppenheimerOct 12 · prior Aug 18

$1100.00 → $1038.00-5.6%

Robert W. BairdOct 9 · prior Jul 27

$932.00 → $823.00-11.7%

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Aug 31

$1250.00 → $1140.00-8.8%

Evercore ISIOct 9

$1078.00New observation · no comparable prior

Stifel NicolausOct 8 · prior May 28

$1255.00 → $1282.00+2.2%

$0$745.80$1491.60

2 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain a strong competitive position in autoimmune therapiesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Successful regulatory approval for VyvgartQualitative condition
FY26 revenue growth from Vyvgart and other therapiesRevenue: $2.816B

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ARGENX SE outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a moderate-risk position in the healthcare sector, which is currently experiencing mixed signals. The thesis is still developing, with insufficient recent financial performance history to draw strong conclusions.

What's priced into ARGENX SE

The market appears to have low fragility priced in, indicating that there are no immediate concerns affecting ARGX's stability. However, the overall sector backdrop is neutral, suggesting that expectations are not overly optimistic or pessimistic.

What the fundamentals likely do

The fundamentals may remain stable in the near term, but there is a 25% probability of missing expectations, which is notable given the high miss rate in the industry. Recent sector context has improved, but ARGX's performance is still uncertain due to its recent history of deep misses.

What ARGENX SE hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like VRTX, MRNA, and REGN. If these companies continue to report strong earnings, it could provide a favorable environment for ARGX, while any downturn in their performance could negatively impact ARGX.