ArcBest Corp. (ARCB)

NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$127.01-2.52%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ArcBest Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.54 → 9.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.12B
EPS	—	1.819
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.51B
EPS	—	7.019
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	4.86B
EPS	—	9.55

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend remains at $0.12 per share	The company maintains a steady dividend of $0.12 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.12 in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company consistently paid a quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2, including the recent approval for the August 2026 payment. This reflects steady delivery on the dividend commitment as part of balanced capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to at least $4M in Q2 2026	ArcBest grew revenue 3% in Q1 2026 and improved operating income from -$8.3M to $3.4M.	Broken	Operating income falls below $3M in Q2 2026	Operating margin: -1.74% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.0 to 5.0 USD million. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 30, 2026-1.741024 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: dddf5e21-3f9d-4ee3-a79b-c234214ffbf4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $998.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $1.18 billion in 2026-Q2, but operating income declined from $37.3 million to a loss of $20.6 million, reflecting challenges including a $76.5 million impairment in 2026-Q2. Management emphasizes progress on pricing, cost management, efficiency, and productivity initiatives, but the operating income trajectory shows limited progress in the latest quarter. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 11% next year	Analysts expect 11% revenue growth next year.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 11% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.55

$9.33 → $9.55 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.86B

$4.78B → $4.86B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.33	$4,775,540,390	13 / 12
2026-07-25	$9.33	$4,775,540,390	13 / 12
2026-07-26	$9.33	$4,775,540,390	13 / 12
2026-07-27	$9.33	$4,775,540,390	13 / 12
2026-07-28	$9.33	$4,775,540,390	13 / 12
2026-07-29	$9.33	$4,775,540,390	13 / 12
2026-07-30	$9.33	$4,775,540,390	13 / 12
2026-07-31	$9.45	$4,834,772,640	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$9.48	$4,835,670,657	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$9.42	$4,836,359,360	13 / 13
2026-08-03	$9.42	$4,836,359,360	13 / 13
2026-08-04	$9.42	$4,836,359,360	13 / 13
2026-08-05	$9.49	$4,834,689,330	13 / 13
2026-08-06	$9.49	$4,834,689,330	13 / 13
2026-08-07	$9.49	$4,834,669,853	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$9.49	$4,834,689,330	13 / 13
2026-08-09	$9.49	$4,834,689,330	13 / 13
2026-08-10	$9.49	$4,834,689,330	13 / 13
2026-08-11	$9.49	$4,834,689,330	13 / 13
2026-08-12	$9.49	$4,834,689,330	13 / 13
2026-08-13	$9.49	$4,834,689,330	13 / 13
2026-08-14	$9.49	$4,834,669,853	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$9.49	$4,834,669,853	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$9.49	$4,834,669,853	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$9.49	$4,834,669,853	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$9.49	$4,834,669,853	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$9.49	$4,834,669,853	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$9.49	$4,834,669,853	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$9.49	$4,834,670,815	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$9.52	$4,842,922,245	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$9.54	$4,838,398,015	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$9.55	$4,839,405,707	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$9.55	$4,839,405,707	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$9.55	$4,836,259,639	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$9.58	$4,841,605,793	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$9.49	$4,846,175,024	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$9.56	$4,854,407,983	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$9.56	$4,854,407,983	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$9.56	$4,854,407,983	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$9.56	$4,854,407,983	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$9.56	$4,854,407,983	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$9.56	$4,854,407,983	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$9.56	$4,854,407,983	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$9.56	$4,854,407,983	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$9.56	$4,854,407,983	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$9.55	$4,860,559,906	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$9.55	$4,860,559,906	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$9.55	$4,860,559,906	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$9.55	$4,860,559,906	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$9.55	$4,860,559,906	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$9.55	$4,860,559,906	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$9.55	$4,860,559,906	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	6
2026-06-01	6	6
2026-07-01	8	6
2026-08-01	8	6
2026-09-01	8	6
2026-10-01	8	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 8 · prior Jul 21

$176.00 → $168.00-4.5%

Truist FinancialOct 7 · prior Apr 29

$145.00 → $160.00+10.3%

$0$96.80$193.60

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend remains at $0.12 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income improves to at least $4M in Q2 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue grows at least 11% next yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ArcBest Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical transport business with a cost-improvement element, not a clear turnaround yet. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent signals improved modestly, but financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into ArcBest Corp.

ARCB is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence points to an expectations gap that is negative. The valuation is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but the premium leaves less room for weak execution to be overlooked.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven: second-quarter revenue rose from the first quarter, but operating income moved to a loss, including a large impairment. Management’s new brand and operating changes aim to generate about $40 million in annualized savings, though execution is still mixed; the sector backdrop is also a headwind.

What ArcBest Corp. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on whether cost reductions, pricing, and efficiency efforts improve operating income. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the industry backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers would weaken it.