Artivion (AORT)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$23.30-2.80%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Artivion’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.29 → 0.29 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	128.72M
EPS	—	0.054
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$480M–$496Mnon-GAAP	490.64M
EPS	—	-0.27
EBITDA	$92M–$99Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	543.62M
EPS	—	0.289

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful integration of Endospan acquisition	The company completed the Endospan acquisition to expand its aortic arch products.	Intact	Integration progress score falls below 50%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 disclosures including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. The acquisition closed in May 2026 with a $135 million upfront payment funded by a $150 million loan. Management has delivered this milestone ahead of initial expectations, fulfilling the stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves beyond $5.8 million quarterly run rate	Operating income improved to $5.8 million from $2.1 million a year ago.	Intact	Operating income falls below $5 million per quarter	Operating income: $-8.364M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > $5.8 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-8,364,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a109cebe-996d-49a3-902a-24687eedba1b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management emphasized improving operating income in 4 quarters including 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA grew from $24.8 million in Q2 2025 to $26.4 million in Q2 2026 (7% growth). Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $92 to $99 million reflects continued growth but slightly below earlier guidance, indicating delivering with some moderation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to at least $488 million in FY26	A primary condition in Artivion's published investment case. The stated target is >= $488 million.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $480 million in FY26	Revenue: $125.757M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $488 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026125,757,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a109cebe-996d-49a3-902a-24687eedba1b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated revenue growth as a priority in 4 quarters including 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Revenue increased from $112.97 million in Q2 2025 to $125.76 million in Q2 2026 (11% GAAP growth). Full year 2026 revenue guidance of $480 to $496 million implies 7% to 11% growth on an adjusted constant currency basis. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.29

$0.72 → $0.29 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.54B

$0.54B → $0.54B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-07-25	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-07-26	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.41	$539,784,662	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-07-29	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-07-30	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-07-31	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-08-01	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-08-02	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-08-03	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-08-04	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-08-06	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-08-07	$0.41	$539,784,662	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$0.72	$539,783,750	6 / 8
2026-08-09	$0.72	$540,483,750	6 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.72	$540,483,750	6 / 8
2026-08-11	$0.78	$542,852,500	6 / 8
2026-08-12	$0.78	$542,852,500	6 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.78	$542,852,500	6 / 8
2026-08-14	$0.41	$539,784,662	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$0.41	$539,784,662	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$0.41	$539,784,662	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$0.41	$539,784,662	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$0.41	$539,784,662	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$0.41	$539,784,662	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$0.41	$539,784,662	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$0.29	$543,215,000	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$0.29	$543,624,056	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$0.29	$543,624,056	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$0.29	$543,624,056	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$0.29	$543,624,056	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	0	0
2026-06-01	8	0	0
2026-07-01	8	0	0
2026-08-01	8	0	0
2026-09-01	8	0	0
2026-10-01	9	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 20

$31.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$17.05$34.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Successful integration of Endospan acquisitionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income improves beyond $5.8 million quarterly run rateOperating income: $-8.364M
Revenue grows to at least $488 million in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-57.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Artivion outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AORT is a growth-oriented medical-device business with a sector tailwind, but it is still loss-making and carries elevated risk. The multi-year view is intact, supported by recent financial performance, though management execution is neutral overall and the evidence is only medium confidence.

What's priced into Artivion

AORT trades at a durable premium to peers, meaning the market assigns it a higher valuation based on an expectation of lasting business strength. The priced-in assessment is justified, with a slightly negative expectations gap, but valuation-model confidence is low and the business remains loss-making.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has been consistent with management’s stated priority: Q2 2026 revenue rose 11% from a year earlier, and full-year guidance implies 7% to 11% adjusted constant-currency growth. Adjusted EBITDA also grew, while its full-year guidance was moderated; the Endospan acquisition closed in May with a $135 million upfront payment funded by a $150 million loan. The next guidance update and integration of the acquisition are key near-term tests, especially given the prior earnings miss and elevated risk.

What Artivion hinges on

The unfavorable case strengthens if management cuts guidance or weakening job growth raises recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names. The favorable case depends in part on continued strength from sector bellwethers such as ABT, MDT, and SYK, which could support healthcare-sector momentum. Over the multi-year view, revenue growth and improved operating performance need to continue while the Endospan acquisition is integrated.