Annexon, Inc. (ANNX)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.75-1.57%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Annexon, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	7.5M
EPS	—	-0.268
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.36M
EPS	—	-1.052
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	39.47M
EPS	—	-0.989

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve late-stage program milestones	It has advanced pipeline catalysts supporting late-stage program milestones.	Intact	Misses or delays key late-stage program milestones in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Fund operations into the second half of 2027	Annexon aims to fund operations into the second half of 2027.	Improving	Fails to secure funding to operate beyond mid-2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduce EPS loss	A supporting condition in Annexon, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss improves to better than -0.98 in FY26 and -0.92 in FY27.	Broken	EPS loss worsens beyond -1.16 in FY26 or fails to improve in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.99

$-0.83 → $-0.99 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.04B

$0.04B → $0.04B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.83	$40,998,421	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$-0.83	$40,998,421	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$-0.86	$37,827,746	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$-0.86	$37,827,746	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.86	$37,827,746	7 / 8
2026-07-29	$-0.86	$37,827,746	7 / 8
2026-07-30	$-0.96	$37,827,750	7 / 11
2026-07-31	$-0.96	$37,827,750	7 / 11
2026-08-01	$-0.96	$37,827,750	7 / 11
2026-08-02	$-0.99	$40,380,520	6 / 10
2026-08-03	$-0.99	$40,380,520	6 / 10
2026-08-04	$-0.99	$40,380,520	6 / 10
2026-08-05	$-0.99	$40,380,520	6 / 10
2026-08-06	$-0.99	$40,380,520	6 / 10
2026-08-07	$-0.87	$40,380,521	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$-0.99	$40,380,520	6 / 10
2026-08-09	$-0.99	$40,380,520	6 / 10
2026-08-10	$-0.99	$40,380,520	6 / 10
2026-08-11	$-0.87	$40,380,521	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$-0.99	$40,378,420	6 / 10
2026-08-13	$-0.99	$40,378,420	6 / 10
2026-08-14	$-0.87	$40,380,521	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$-0.87	$40,380,521	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$-0.87	$40,380,521	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$-0.87	$40,380,521	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$-0.87	$40,380,521	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$-0.87	$40,380,521	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$-0.87	$40,380,521	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$-1.00	$46,717,000	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$-1.00	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$-0.99	$42,742,727	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$-0.99	$39,473,182	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$-0.99	$39,473,182	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$-0.99	$39,473,182	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$-0.99	$39,473,182	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	1	0
2026-06-01	9	1	0
2026-07-01	9	1	1
2026-08-01	8	2	1
2026-09-01	8	2	0
2026-10-01	8	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve late-stage program milestonesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Fund operations into the second half of 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Reduce EPS lossPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Annexon, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative clinical-stage growth, not an established earnings compounder: the company is loss-making, and the evidence confidence is low. The long-term thesis is on watch, with recent performance below its industry cohort and risk recently moving from elevated to high.

What's priced into Annexon, Inc.

The snapshot provides no valuation or market-expectations evidence, so whether ANNX is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. It does show an August earnings miss, but does not establish how much of that result or future trial progress is reflected in expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, ANNX is likely to remain loss-making as it invests in pivotal Phase 3 trials; research and development spending and net loss both rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026. Management remains on track with clinical advancement, but runway is a mixed area: cash declined modestly and a credit facility was secured, while the company still faces a high risk of missing expectations.

What Annexon, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on progress toward 2026 milestones for vonaprument and tanruprubart, including tanruprubart data and regulatory steps, alongside funding that supports runway into late 2027 and 2028. A guidance cut or weaker employment data would add near-term risk; continued strength among healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, though it does not resolve ANNX's clinical and funding uncertainty.