ANGEL STUDIOS INC (ANGX)

NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.49+0.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ANGEL STUDIOS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	146.17M
EPS	—	-0.105
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	513.21M
EPS	—	-0.372
EBITDA	Under -$25Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	652.76M
EPS	—	-0.227

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective capital raising to fund growth initiatives	A supporting condition in ANGEL STUDIOS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Capital raised supports growth without excessive dilution.	Intact	Capital raising leads to dilution without growth or worsens financial health	Qualitative: Capital raised supports growth without excessive dilution Director stock purchase, 99% Guild membership surge, and M&A activity confirm capital allocation is driving growth. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improvement in profitability and reduction of losses	A primary condition in ANGEL STUDIOS INC's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -$0.52 in FY26 to less negative or break-even by FY27.	Improving	EPS loss worsens or remains flat beyond FY27	Diluted EPS: $-0.13 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -$0.52 in FY26 to less negative or break-even by FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-0.129 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: aba0c1c1-744b-4b74-8991-d52e3c884444. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to sustain above 40% annually	A primary condition in ANGEL STUDIOS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=43% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 30% in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Revenue growth from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful integration of acquisitions and partnerships	Recent acquisitions and partnerships support growth.	Improving	Acquisitions fail to contribute or cause operational disruption	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.59B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$594,936,000	2 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$594,936,000	2 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$594,936,000	2 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$594,936,000	2 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$594,936,000	2 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$594,936,000	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$594,936,000	2 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$597,296,000	2 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$597,296,000	2 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$597,296,000	2 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$597,296,000	2 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$597,296,000	2 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$597,296,000	2 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$597,296,000	2 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$632,721,600	2 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$632,721,600	2 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$632,721,600	2 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$647,101,600	2 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$647,101,600	2 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$647,101,600	2 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	0	0
2026-06-01	5	0	0
2026-07-01	5	0	0
2026-08-01	5	0	0
2026-09-01	5	0	0
2026-10-01	5	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improvement in profitability and reduction of lossesDiluted EPS: $-0.13 per share
Revenue growth to sustain above 40% annuallyPublished status: Broken
Successful integration of acquisitions and partnershipsQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 10, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-68.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ANGEL STUDIOS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a loss-making growth business with a potentially recurring revenue stream, rather than an established earnings compounder. The multi-year view remains in watch mode: Guild growth and reduced losses are encouraging, but recent performance is below its industry cohort and overall risk has risen.

What's priced into ANGEL STUDIOS INC

ANGX trades at a premium to peers, while the valuation evidence says pricing and fundamentals are broadly aligned. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what current fundamentals support; the evidence does not show a high fragility signal.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, Guild membership nearly doubled year over year and Guild revenue grew strongly, while the first-half Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed substantially. Management still targets a full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA loss of no more than $25 million, but progress is mixed and recent earnings have been erratic despite an August earnings beat. The planned seven theatrical releases in the second half of 2026 may support Guild growth, though their impact is not yet established.

What ANGEL STUDIOS INC hinges on

The thesis depends on Guild membership and recurring revenue continuing to grow while losses narrow toward management’s stated target. A guidance cut from the reaffirmed outlook would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or continued strength among sector bellwethers could improve the backdrop, but these are external factors. The recent rise in market risk and the company’s below-industry performance remain important near-term concerns.