Amazon (AMZN)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$250.00-1.87%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Amazon’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.63 → 10.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 41 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 42 to 41; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
AWS and AI revenue growth	A primary condition in Amazon's published investment case. The stated target is >=24% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	AWS revenue growth falls below 15% YoY next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. AWS net sales grew from $30.9B in 2025-Q2 to $42.2B in 2026-Q2, a 37% increase year-over-year. The AI and chips businesses each surpassed $25B run rates with triple-digit growth. Management consistently emphasized AWS and AI expansion, and the financials show strong delivery and accelerating growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Capital expenditures	A supporting condition in Amazon's published investment case. The stated target is about $200 billion.	Intact	Capital expenditures fall below $150 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $54.208B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: about $200 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202654,208,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating profit margin	A supporting condition in Amazon's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income between $16.5B and $21.5B.	Intact	Operating income falls below $13B next quarter	Operating income: $27.461B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income between $16.5B and $21.5B. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 202627,461,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 401a0359-eac1-47cd-bf6e-2c669a99c56a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Regulatory environment in India	A supporting condition in Amazon's published investment case. The stated target is No major regulatory restrictions on quick commerce expansion.	Intact	Significant regulatory restrictions imposed on Amazon's India operations	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total company revenue growth	A primary condition in Amazon's published investment case. The stated target is >=16% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	Total revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.64

$9.90 → $10.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$950.76B

$931.26B → $950.76B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.90	$931,258,041,100	55 / 61
2026-07-25	$9.89	$931,157,891,780	54 / 60
2026-07-26	$9.89	$931,157,891,780	54 / 60
2026-07-27	$10.07	$934,885,592,912	42 / 46
2026-07-28	$9.98	$931,258,532,900	56 / 61
2026-07-29	$10.03	$933,452,178,590	55 / 60
2026-07-30	$10.03	$933,452,178,590	55 / 60
2026-07-31	$10.15	$937,666,875,449	42 / 46
2026-08-01	$10.04	$933,629,745,260	55 / 60
2026-08-02	$10.38	$942,793,482,280	54 / 61
2026-08-03	$10.38	$942,793,482,280	54 / 61
2026-08-04	$10.38	$942,793,482,280	54 / 61
2026-08-05	$10.41	$944,458,498,680	54 / 61
2026-08-06	$10.41	$944,458,498,680	54 / 61
2026-08-07	$10.42	$942,118,693,969	41 / 46
2026-08-08	$10.46	$945,531,744,400	52 / 59
2026-08-09	$10.46	$945,531,744,400	52 / 59
2026-08-10	$10.46	$945,531,744,400	52 / 59
2026-08-11	$10.42	$942,118,693,969	41 / 46
2026-08-12	$10.44	$945,788,998,630	51 / 59
2026-08-13	$10.44	$945,788,998,630	51 / 59
2026-08-14	$10.42	$942,118,693,969	41 / 46
2026-08-15	$10.42	$942,118,693,969	40 / 46
2026-08-16	$10.42	$942,118,693,969	41 / 46
2026-08-17	$10.42	$942,118,693,969	41 / 46
2026-08-18	$10.42	$942,118,693,969	41 / 46
2026-08-19	$10.42	$942,118,693,969	41 / 46
2026-08-20	$10.42	$942,118,693,969	41 / 46
2026-08-21	$10.61	$949,514,391,332	41 / 46
2026-08-22	$10.61	$949,514,391,332	41 / 46
2026-08-23	$10.61	$949,514,391,332	41 / 46
2026-08-24	$10.61	$949,514,391,332	41 / 46
2026-08-25	$10.61	$949,514,391,332	41 / 46
2026-08-26	$10.61	$949,434,357,999	41 / 46
2026-08-27	$10.61	$949,434,357,999	41 / 46
2026-08-28	$10.61	$949,434,357,999	41 / 46
2026-08-29	$10.61	$949,435,324,665	41 / 46
2026-08-30	$10.61	$949,435,324,665	41 / 46
2026-08-31	$10.61	$949,435,324,665	41 / 46
2026-09-01	$10.61	$949,414,702,969	41 / 46
2026-09-02	$10.62	$949,531,369,635	41 / 46
2026-09-03	$10.62	$949,223,986,302	41 / 46
2026-09-04	$10.62	$949,223,986,302	41 / 46
2026-09-05	$10.62	$949,223,986,302	41 / 46
2026-09-06	$10.62	$949,223,986,302	41 / 46
2026-09-07	$10.62	$949,223,986,302	41 / 46
2026-09-08	$10.62	$949,223,979,635	41 / 46
2026-09-09	$10.62	$949,223,979,635	41 / 46
2026-09-10	$10.62	$949,223,979,635	41 / 46
2026-09-11	$10.63	$949,683,162,969	41 / 46
2026-09-12	$10.63	$949,683,162,969	42 / 46
2026-09-13	$10.63	$949,683,162,969	42 / 46
2026-09-14	$10.63	$949,683,162,969	42 / 46
2026-09-15	$10.63	$949,683,162,969	42 / 46
2026-09-16	$10.63	$949,683,169,421	41 / 46
2026-09-17	$10.61	$949,851,731,615	41 / 46
2026-09-18	$10.61	$949,851,731,615	41 / 46
2026-09-19	$10.61	$949,851,731,615	41 / 46
2026-09-20	$10.62	$949,851,731,615	40 / 45
2026-09-21	$10.62	$949,851,731,615	40 / 45
2026-09-22	$10.62	$949,851,731,615	40 / 44
2026-09-23	$10.62	$949,851,724,259	40 / 44
2026-09-24	$10.62	$949,851,724,259	40 / 44
2026-09-25	$10.62	$949,851,724,259	40 / 44
2026-09-26	$10.62	$949,851,724,259	39 / 43
2026-09-27	$10.62	$949,851,724,259	40 / 43
2026-09-28	$10.62	$949,851,724,259	40 / 43
2026-09-29	$10.62	$949,851,724,259	40 / 43
2026-09-30	$10.62	$949,851,724,259	40 / 43
2026-10-01	$10.63	$949,774,063,242	40 / 43
2026-10-02	$10.63	$949,774,063,242	40 / 43
2026-10-03	$10.63	$949,774,063,242	40 / 43
2026-10-04	$10.63	$949,774,063,242	40 / 43
2026-10-05	$10.63	$949,774,063,242	40 / 43
2026-10-06	$10.63	$949,774,063,242	40 / 43
2026-10-07	$10.63	$949,807,266,632	40 / 43
2026-10-08	$10.64	$950,345,145,521	40 / 44
2026-10-09	$10.64	$950,344,183,188	41 / 44
2026-10-10	$10.64	$950,344,183,188	41 / 44
2026-10-11	$10.64	$950,343,716,521	41 / 44
2026-10-12	$10.64	$950,343,716,521	41 / 44
2026-10-13	$10.64	$950,763,297,622	41 / 44
2026-10-14	$10.64	$950,763,297,622	41 / 44
2026-10-15	$10.64	$950,763,297,622	41 / 44

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	63	5	0
2026-06-01	63	11	0
2026-07-01	64	11	0
2026-08-01	61	10	0
2026-09-01	61	10	1
2026-10-01	58	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 58 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Sep 3

$338.00 → $329.00-2.7%

Tigress FinancialOct 6

$385.00New observation · no comparable prior

Rosenblatt SecuritiesSep 30 · prior Jul 31

$345.00 → $360.00+4.3%

UBSSep 17 · prior Jul 31

$318.00 → $200.00-37.1%

$0$211.75$423.50

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

AWS and AI revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Capital expendituresCapital expenditures: $54.208B
Operating profit marginOperating income: $27.461B
Regulatory environment in IndiaQualitative condition
Total company revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Amazon outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder with a focus on expanding its core businesses like AWS and AI. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong financial performance and management's commitment to growth initiatives.

What's priced into Amazon

The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation, reflecting a low level of fragility despite some concerns about execution quality. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors are anticipating continued strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track with its priorities and recent financial results show significant growth. However, there is a moderate risk due to potential economic headwinds that could impact performance.

What Amazon hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth momentum and navigate potential challenges, such as inflation and sector performance. Key forward scenarios include the impact of guidance changes and the performance of other major players in the Consumer Discretionary sector.