Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$226.94+1.43%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Cost of coal sales per ton within $95 to $101 range: metric not reported.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources is improving its cash flow and cutting losses. Operating income improved from -$21.3 million to -$10.4 million in one quarter. The company is stabilizing revenue near $525 million per quarter. It is also buying back shares under a $1.5 billion program.
The company is still loss-making with EPS at -$0.86 per share. Costs per ton are above guidance, rising to $107.98 versus a target max of $101. Revenue growth is weak and the sector faces headwinds. The recent sharp share price drop reflects these risks.
The price is about 8% above our fair value near $141. Analysts expect 20% revenue growth, but our model sees stretched growth and elevated risk. The market prices in a recovery that is not yet proven.
Breaks if: Operating cash flow falls below $29 million in any quarter
Increase operating cash flow to support liquidity and capital needs amid challenging market conditions.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation with a focus on improving operational cash flow and stabilizing revenue. The current thesis state suggests cautious optimism, as recent earnings have shown some positive momentum despite ongoing challenges.
The market appears to be pricing AMR as a cheap option compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for recovery. The valuation reflects a justified stance, given the company's recent earnings performance and management's guidance.
Management is on track to enhance cash from operations, showing a positive trend despite net losses. However, revenue stabilization efforts are mixed, with sales volume and pricing adjustments reflecting ongoing market challenges.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The director's recent purchase of $2.9 million in shares signals confidence in the company. This supports the execution of the share repurchase program. There are no new threats identified that would weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating cash flow increased steadily from $19.0 million in 2025-Q4 to $29.0 million in 2026-Q1 and further to $39.9 million in 2026-Q2. This demonstrates management is delivering on enhancing cash from operations despite ongoing net losses, showing positive trajectory in liquidity generation.
“Operating cash flow increased to $39.9 million compared to $29.0 million in the first quarter.”
“Cash provided by operating activities in the first quarter increased to $29.0 million as compared to $19.0 million in the fourth quarter 2025.”
“Operating cash flow was $19.0 million in the fourth quarter 2025.”
Breaks if: Cost per ton exceeds $101 for multiple quarters
Manage and control cost of coal sales per ton within guided range despite market and operational challenges.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management maintained or raised cost of coal sales guidance from $95-$101 per ton in early 2026 to $103-$107 per ton by mid-2026. Actual met segment cost of coal sales was $107.98 per ton in 2026-Q1 and improved to $103.07 per ton in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows management adjusting guidance upward due to market and operational challenges but achieving some cost improvement in Q2, indicating limited progress toward cost control.
“We are raising our cost of coal sales guidance to reflect these challenges.”
“We are maintaining our cost of coal sales guidance range for the year with the expectation of better cost performance in subsequent quarters.”
“Persistent challenges of the met pricing environment that prevailed through much of the 2025 calendar year.”
Breaks if: Operating loss worsens beyond -$10.4 million
Focus on reducing operating losses and improving operating income through cost management and operational efficiency.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $520 million in any quarter
Manage coal sales volumes and pricing to stabilize revenue amid market softness and operational disruptions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management lowered metallurgical coal sales volume guidance from 14.9 million tons midpoint in 2026-Q1 to 13.6 million tons midpoint in 2026-Q2. Actual met segment tons sold declined slightly from 3.6 million in 2026-Q1 to 3.5 million in 2026-Q2, while coal sales realization per ton decreased from $124.39 to $118.71. The trajectory shows management responding to market softness and operational disruptions with volume and pricing adjustments, indicating mixed progress toward revenue stabilization.
“We are reducing our expected sales volumes for the year due to market weakness and equipment damage at Dominion Terminal Associates.”
“Lower volumes and higher costs negatively impacted our first quarter 2026 results.”
“Persistent challenges of the met pricing environment that prevailed through much of the 2025 calendar year.”
Breaks if: Share repurchases stall or stop
Continue repurchasing shares under the authorized $1.5 billion program to manage capital allocation.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently executed the share repurchase program, acquiring about 7.0 million shares at a cost of approximately $1.2 billion by 2026-Q2. The number of shares repurchased has increased slightly from 6.9 million in 2025-Q4, indicating steady delivery on this capital allocation priority.
“As of June 30, 2026, the company had acquired approximately 7.0 million shares at a cost of approximately $1.2 billion.”
“As of March 31, 2026, the company had acquired approximately 7.0 million shares at a cost of approximately $1.2 billion.”
“As of February 20, 2026, the company had acquired approximately 6.9 million shares at a cost of approximately $1.1 billion.”
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain cost guidance and improve revenue stabilization. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector peers will play a critical role in shaping AMR's trajectory.
Over the next 1-3 years, AMR's performance will depend on its operational execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.