Amplify Energy Corp (AMPY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$4.92-0.40%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue meets or exceeds $171 million in 2026: Q2 rev $52.7M vs FY26 target $171M.
Amplify Energy aims to meet its full-year 2026 guidance despite recent revenue declines. The company plans capital investments between $45M and $65M to support operations. Management targets controlled cash interest expense of $3-$4M in 2026. These efforts could stabilize the business and improve financial health.
Revenue is expected to decline about 11% next year. The company is currently loss-making with negative free cash flow. Recent legal and regulatory issues add uncertainty. The stock has fallen 38% from its high, reflecting these risks.
The price is about 59% below our fair value near $9.36. The market expects revenue to decline roughly 11% next year, which aligns with our cautious outlook.
Breaks if: Capital investment exceeds $65 million or falls below $45 million in FY26
Breaks if: Cash interest expense falls outside $3-$4 million range in FY26
Revenue falls below $171 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
AMPY represents a speculative growth investment with a medium confidence level. The company is currently loss-making and has shown volatile management performance, which adds to the uncertainty of its long-term thesis.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of expectations, as AMPY is viewed as cheap compared to its peers. However, the overall valuation reflects a justified status given the recent financial struggles and the turbulent sector environment.
Fundamentals are likely to remain weak in the near term, especially with a high probability of missing earnings expectations. Management is pursuing several initiatives, but the mixed progress indicates that improvements may take time.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for AMPY to raise guidance in the next quarter, the impact of inflation on the Energy sector, and the performance of sector leaders like COP, EOG, and OXY. Positive developments in these areas could shift sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read on AMPY. However, guidance cuts indicate potential revenue challenges ahead.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMPY's performance will depend on its ability to navigate current challenges and leverage sector tailwinds. Not investment advice.