Affiliated Managers Group (AMG)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-23

$383.42-3.06%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Affiliated Managers Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	657.49M
EPS	—	11.915
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.49B
EPS	—	37.214
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.7B
EPS	—	43.416

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective capital allocation via share buybacks and dividend stability	AMG also supports shareholders with share buybacks and a stable dividend.	Intact	Dividend cut or suspension of share buybacks	Dividend maintained at $0.01/share; buybacks active AMG declared a $0.01 quarterly dividend for Q2 2026 and announced share buybacks, maintaining capital allocation stability. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Economic earnings per share at or above $8.23 in 2026	The company guides economic earnings per share at $8.23 for 2026, showing a clear target.	Intact	Economic EPS falls below $8.23 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $6.95 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8.23 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20266.95 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3bb434a5-16f0-4caa-bfb5-1303a2da811f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Economic earnings per share grew from $5.39 in 2025-Q2 to $8.29 in 2026-Q2 (+54%), with full-year 2025 Economic EPS up 22% year-over-year to $26.05. Management's focus on organic growth in alternative strategies and disciplined capital allocation is delivering consistent earnings growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stabilize management team and execution	A supporting condition in Affiliated Managers Group's published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures; stable leadership.	Intact	Additional key executive departures or leadership instability	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 15% year over year	A primary condition in Affiliated Managers Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 15% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 29.91% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202629.906732 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3bb434a5-16f0-4caa-bfb5-1303a2da811f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$2.67B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,666,594,130	3 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$2,666,594,130	3 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,666,594,130	3 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,666,594,130	3 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$2,666,594,130	3 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$2,666,594,130	3 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$2,666,594,130	3 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$2,666,594,130	3 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$2,666,594,130	3 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,716,766,730	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,716,766,730	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,716,766,730	3 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,678,341,930	2 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,678,341,930	2 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,702,813,710	2 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,702,813,710	2 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$2,702,813,710	2 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$2,702,813,710	2 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$2,702,813,710	2 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	1	0
2026-06-01	6	1	1
2026-07-01	6	1	0
2026-08-01	6	1	0
2026-09-01	6	1	0
2026-10-01	6	1	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Economic earnings per share at or above $8.23 in 2026Diluted EPS: $6.95 per share
Stabilize management team and executionQualitative condition
Revenue growth near 15% year over yearRevenue growth: 29.91%

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Affiliated Managers Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AMG is a financial asset manager with a growth-led long-term thesis, supported by robust earnings quality and recent strong performance. The thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and management execution is rated volatile.

What's priced into Affiliated Managers Group

The valuation evidence is mixed: AMG is described as cheap versus peers, yet its premium versus peers is 0.9 and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, while the negative expectations gap suggests the market’s assumptions are not especially demanding.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: economic earnings per share grew 54% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, and assets under management rose 16% from the end of 2025, supported by net client cash flows. Management’s priorities are on track, but the sector backdrop is a headwind and guidance cuts remain a notable risk, despite a low stated miss probability.

What Affiliated Managers Group hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued earnings growth, alternative-strategy inflows, and management maintaining guidance. Rate cuts could weigh on financial firms, while sustained earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers such as BLK, BX, and KKR would support sector momentum.