Antero Midstream (AM)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-10-23

$20.85+1.16%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Antero Midstream’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	350.76M
EPS	—	0.313
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.34B
EPS	—	1.106
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.45B
EPS	—	1.313

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures near $205 million in 2026	The company maintains a stable capital spending plan near $205 million for 2026.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $220 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EBITDA growth at high-single digits	Antero Midstream aims for high-single digit EBITDA growth through organic growth and acquisitions.	Intact	EBITDA growth falls below 7% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew modestly from $285 million in 2025-Q4 to $289 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting 2-5% year-over-year increases. Management consistently links organic growth and acquisitions to high-single digit EBITDA growth targets, with the trajectory showing steady but moderate delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth near 9.5% next year	Revenue is expected to grow about 9.5% next year.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 7% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew modestly from $285 million in 2025-Q4 to $289 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting 2-5% year-over-year increases. Management consistently links organic growth and acquisitions to high-single digit EBITDA growth targets, with the trajectory showing steady but moderate delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$1.45B

$1.39B → $1.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,387,164,400	2 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,395,234,730	1 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,395,234,730	1 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,395,234,730	1 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,395,234,730	1 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,395,234,730	1 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,395,234,730	1 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,395,234,730	1 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,395,234,730	1 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,400,895,070	1 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,400,895,070	1 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,400,895,070	1 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,434,249,730	1 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,434,249,730	1 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,432,033,730	1 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,432,033,730	1 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,432,033,730	1 / 6
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$1,432,033,730	1 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,432,033,730	1 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,432,033,730	1 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,458,154,145	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,459,463,101	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,448,533,371	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,448,533,371	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,448,533,371	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,453,328,542	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,453,328,542	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,453,328,542	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,453,328,542	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	7	1
2026-06-01	0	7	1
2026-07-01	0	7	1
2026-08-01	0	7	1
2026-09-01	1	7	1
2026-10-01	1	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures near $205 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
EBITDA growth at high-single digitsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth near 9.5% next yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Antero Midstream outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AM is a sector-sensitive business with a modest growth thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, and its signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but recent financial performance remains neutral.

What's priced into Antero Midstream

The evidence points to AM being cheap versus peers, while the valuation signal suggests market expectations sit below the model’s view. The priced-in assessment is described as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not indicate that expectations are unusually stretched.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 41% estimated miss probability make the next report a key risk. Over the multi-year view, management has delivered modest EBITDA growth and quarterly cash flow consistent with annual guidance, while capital spending remains within the stated range. Progress toward the high-single-digit EBITDA growth goal is steady but not yet strong.

What Antero Midstream hinges on

A guidance cut at the next call would weaken the thesis, especially given the pattern of recent misses. The sector backdrop is a tailwind if bellwethers ENB, WMB, and KMI continue to report strong results and guide higher; misses or lower guidance could remove that support. The main longer-term test is whether modest growth and cash generation can develop into the company’s stated growth ambition.