Antero Midstream (AM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-09
$22.84-0.26%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Antero Midstream aims for high-single digit EBITDA growth through organic growth and acquisitions. Revenue is expected to grow about 9.5% next year. The company maintains a stable capital spending plan near $205 million for 2026. Profit margins and cash flow remain solid, supporting ongoing operations.
Earnings missed recent expectations and revenue growth could slow below 7%. Capital spending might rise, pressuring free cash flow. The midstream sector faces headwinds that could limit growth and margin expansion.
The price is about 33% below our fair value near $34, reflecting cautious sentiment. Analysts expect roughly 9.5% revenue growth, which aligns with our view. Our edge is confidence in stable EBITDA growth and disciplined capital spending.
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $220 million in FY26
Breaks if: EBITDA growth falls below 7% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a moderate growth opportunity in the energy sector. The current thesis is intact, but recent earnings misses and execution quality raise some caution.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, suggesting that expectations are not overly optimistic. AM is seen as cheap compared to peers, but there is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance.
Management is focused on achieving high-single digit EBITDA growth, but recent results show only modest progress. There is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, especially given the recent history of misses.
The thesis hinges on inflation trends and the performance of sector leaders. If inflation rises or if peers continue to perform well, AM could benefit. However, any cuts to guidance would negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue organic growth and integration of acquisitions to achieve high-single digit EBITDA growth in 2027 and beyond.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew modestly from $285 million in 2025-Q4 to $289 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting 2-5% year-over-year increases. Management consistently links organic growth and acquisitions to high-single digit EBITDA growth targets, with the trajectory showing steady but moderate delivery.
“CEO: 'Water integration projects remain on track to drive high-single digit EBITDA growth in 2027.'”
“CFO: 'Just-in-time organic strategy, bolstered by HG Energy acquisition, to continue delivering high-single digit EBITDA growth.'”
“CEO: 'Positions us well for continued capital efficient growth in 2026 and beyond.'”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 7% in FY27
Continue organic growth and integration of acquisitions to achieve high-single digit EBITDA growth in 2027 and beyond.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew modestly from $285 million in 2025-Q4 to $289 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting 2-5% year-over-year increases. Management consistently links organic growth and acquisitions to high-single digit EBITDA growth targets, with the trajectory showing steady but moderate delivery.
“CEO: 'Water integration projects remain on track to drive high-single digit EBITDA growth in 2027.'”
“CFO: 'Just-in-time organic strategy, bolstered by HG Energy acquisition, to continue delivering high-single digit EBITDA growth.'”
“CEO: 'Positions us well for continued capital efficient growth in 2026 and beyond.'”
In the next 1 to 3 years, AM's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector dynamics and improve execution. Not investment advice.