Autoliv (ALV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$119.19-0.88%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve adjusted operating margin of 10.5-11% in FY26: FY26 guidance 10.75% vs target 10.75%.
Autoliv keeps paying steady dividends, with $0.87 per share declared for Q2 2026. The company aims for a profit margin near 11% in 2026. It has strong partnerships, like the global deal with Great Wall Motor. Sales grew 6.8% in Q1 2026 despite margin pressures.
Margin pressures from raw materials and weaker product mix may prevent reaching the 10.5-11% profit margin target. Closing plants in Turkey adds costs and risks. The recent guidance cut and CEO transition add uncertainty.
The market prices in about 3% revenue growth and a fair value near $119, close to the Street median. Our view is aligned with consensus but sees margin risks and cost pressures that could limit upside.
Breaks if: adjusted operating margin falls below 10.0% in FY26
Maintain and improve adjusted operating margin around 10.5-11% for full year 2026 despite cost pressures and restructuring.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady dividends and operational improvements. The current thesis state is stable but faces pressures from sector headwinds and execution challenges.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, indicating that ALV is seen as cheap compared to its peers. However, there is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic about future performance.
Management has set ambitious targets for operating margins but has fallen short in recent quarters. The company is maintaining its dividend, which reflects a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, while restructuring efforts are underway to optimize operations.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet margin targets and the overall performance of the Consumer Discretionary sector. Key factors include potential guidance cuts and inflation trends that could impact future earnings.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 14.9 points (from 55.7 to 70.6).
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted operating margin was 9.6% in 2026-Q2, slightly below the 10.5-11% guidance range. Management reiterated the 10.5-11% target each quarter despite cost pressures and restructuring charges, indicating persistent focus but delivery is slightly below target so far.
“Full year 2026 guidance of around 10.5-11% adjusted operating margin reiterated.”
“Full year 2026 guidance of around 10.5-11% adjusted operating margin reiterated.”
“2026 guidance of around 10.5-11.0% adjusted operating margin.”
“Full year 2025 guidance around 10-10.5% adjusted operating margin.”
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.85 per quarter
Continue paying quarterly dividends around $0.87 per share to provide shareholder returns.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Quarterly dividends were consistently paid at $0.87 per share in 2026-Q1 and Q2, up from $0.85 in 2025-Q3. This shows management is maintaining dividend payout as a capital allocation priority.
“Board declared quarterly dividend of $0.87 per share for Q2 2026.”
“Dividend of $0.87 per share was paid in Q1 2026.”
“Dividend of $0.87 per share paid in Q4 2025.”
“Dividend of $0.85 per share paid in Q3 2025.”
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY26
Breaks if: revenue growth falls below 1% year-over-year
In the next 1-3 years, ALV's performance will depend on effective execution of its strategies and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.