Autoliv (ALV)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$114.67-3.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Autoliv’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.02 → 11.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.83B
EPS	—	3.377
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	11.1B
EPS	—	10.093
Operating cash flow	About $1.2B	—
Operating margin	About 10.5%non-GAAP	—
Organic revenue growth	About 0%	—
Revenue growth	Over 35%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	11.41B
EPS	—	11.869

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted operating margin of 10.5-11% in FY26	A primary condition in Autoliv's published investment case. The stated target is 10.75% adjusted operating margin.	Under Pressure	adjusted operating margin falls below 10.0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of 4 supplied transcript quarters. Adjusted operating margin was 8.9% in 2026-Q1, 9.6% in 2026-Q2 and 9.7% in 2026-Q3, against 2026 guidance of around 10.5%. The margin improved across the first three quarters, but remains below guidance, so progress is limited relative to the stated full-year level. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain quarterly dividend payout at or above $0.87 per share	Autoliv keeps paying steady dividends, with $0.87 per share declared for Q2 2026.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.85 per quarter	Dividend per share: $0.87 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.87 dividend per share per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 23, 20260.87 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bcc24d14-5bde-47df-a0e3-a24e32457f52. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate free cash flow of at least $1.2 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Autoliv's published investment case. The stated target is $1.2 billion free cash flow.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $340M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.2 billion free cash flow. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 17, 2026340,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 3% annually	A supporting condition in Autoliv's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% annual revenue growth.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 1% year-over-year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.87

$11.83 → $11.87 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.41B

$11.40B → $11.41B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.83	$11,399,014,920	16 / 20
2026-07-25	$11.80	$11,399,028,290	17 / 20
2026-07-26	$11.80	$11,399,028,290	17 / 20
2026-07-27	$11.80	$11,399,028,290	17 / 20
2026-07-28	$11.80	$11,399,028,290	17 / 20
2026-07-29	$11.80	$11,399,028,290	17 / 20
2026-07-30	$11.80	$11,399,028,290	17 / 20
2026-07-31	$11.96	$11,427,825,865	11 / 14
2026-08-01	$11.80	$11,399,028,290	17 / 20
2026-08-02	$11.80	$11,399,028,290	17 / 20
2026-08-03	$11.80	$11,399,028,290	17 / 20
2026-08-04	$11.80	$11,399,028,290	17 / 20
2026-08-05	$11.80	$11,399,037,000	17 / 20
2026-08-06	$11.80	$11,399,037,000	17 / 20
2026-08-07	$11.96	$11,427,825,865	11 / 14
2026-08-08	$11.80	$11,399,037,000	16 / 20
2026-08-09	$11.80	$11,399,037,000	16 / 20
2026-08-10	$11.80	$11,399,037,000	16 / 20
2026-08-11	$11.80	$11,399,037,000	16 / 20
2026-08-12	$11.80	$11,399,037,000	16 / 20
2026-08-13	$11.80	$11,399,037,000	16 / 20
2026-08-14	$11.96	$11,427,825,865	11 / 14
2026-08-15	$11.96	$11,427,825,865	11 / 14
2026-08-16	$11.96	$11,427,825,865	11 / 14
2026-08-17	$11.96	$11,427,825,865	11 / 14
2026-08-18	$11.96	$11,427,825,865	11 / 14
2026-08-19	$11.96	$11,427,825,865	11 / 14
2026-08-20	$11.96	$11,427,825,865	11 / 14
2026-08-21	$11.95	$11,427,825,865	11 / 14
2026-08-22	$11.95	$11,427,807,604	11 / 14
2026-08-23	$11.95	$11,427,807,604	11 / 14
2026-08-24	$11.95	$11,427,807,604	11 / 14
2026-08-25	$11.95	$11,427,807,604	11 / 14
2026-08-26	$11.95	$11,427,807,604	11 / 14
2026-08-27	$11.95	$11,427,807,604	11 / 14
2026-08-28	$11.95	$11,427,807,604	11 / 14
2026-08-29	$11.97	$11,433,260,648	11 / 14
2026-08-30	$11.97	$11,433,260,648	11 / 14
2026-08-31	$11.97	$11,433,260,648	11 / 14
2026-09-01	$11.97	$11,433,260,648	11 / 14
2026-09-02	$11.97	$11,433,260,648	11 / 14
2026-09-03	$11.97	$11,433,260,648	11 / 14
2026-09-04	$11.97	$11,433,260,648	11 / 14
2026-09-05	$11.97	$11,433,260,648	11 / 14
2026-09-06	$11.97	$11,433,260,648	11 / 14
2026-09-07	$11.97	$11,433,260,648	11 / 14
2026-09-08	$11.97	$11,433,260,648	11 / 14
2026-09-09	$11.96	$11,431,738,909	11 / 14
2026-09-10	$11.96	$11,431,738,909	11 / 14
2026-09-11	$11.96	$11,431,738,909	11 / 14
2026-09-12	$11.96	$11,431,738,909	11 / 14
2026-09-13	$11.96	$11,431,738,909	11 / 14
2026-09-14	$11.96	$11,431,738,909	11 / 14
2026-09-15	$11.96	$11,431,738,909	11 / 14
2026-09-16	$11.96	$11,431,738,909	11 / 14
2026-09-17	$11.98	$11,432,599,768	11 / 14
2026-09-18	$11.98	$11,432,599,768	11 / 14
2026-09-19	$11.98	$11,432,599,768	11 / 14
2026-09-20	$11.98	$11,432,599,768	10 / 14
2026-09-21	$12.02	$11,433,001,109	10 / 14
2026-09-22	$12.02	$11,433,001,109	10 / 14
2026-09-23	$12.02	$11,433,001,109	10 / 14
2026-09-24	$12.02	$11,433,001,109	10 / 14
2026-09-25	$11.98	$11,429,347,991	10 / 14
2026-09-26	$11.98	$11,436,854,600	11 / 15
2026-09-27	$11.98	$11,436,854,600	11 / 15
2026-09-28	$11.98	$11,436,854,600	11 / 15
2026-09-29	$11.98	$11,436,868,556	11 / 14
2026-09-30	$11.98	$11,440,303,339	11 / 14
2026-10-01	$11.98	$11,440,303,339	11 / 14
2026-10-02	$11.98	$11,440,303,339	11 / 14
2026-10-03	$11.98	$11,440,303,339	11 / 14
2026-10-04	$11.98	$11,440,303,339	11 / 14
2026-10-05	$11.98	$11,440,303,339	11 / 14
2026-10-06	$11.98	$11,440,303,339	11 / 14
2026-10-07	$11.98	$11,440,303,339	11 / 14
2026-10-08	$11.98	$11,434,477,252	11 / 14
2026-10-09	$11.97	$11,434,477,252	11 / 14
2026-10-10	$11.97	$11,434,477,252	11 / 14
2026-10-11	$11.92	$11,423,949,146	11 / 14
2026-10-12	$11.92	$11,423,949,146	11 / 14
2026-10-13	$11.93	$11,434,237,862	11 / 14
2026-10-14	$11.93	$11,432,154,529	11 / 14
2026-10-15	$11.93	$11,432,154,529	11 / 14
2026-10-16	$11.93	$11,432,154,529	11 / 14
2026-10-17	$11.93	$11,432,154,529	11 / 14
2026-10-18	$11.92	$11,429,737,862	10 / 14
2026-10-19	$11.92	$11,429,737,862	10 / 14
2026-10-20	$11.92	$11,429,737,862	10 / 14
2026-10-21	$11.93	$11,429,737,862	10 / 14
2026-10-22	$11.93	$11,429,737,862	10 / 14
2026-10-23	$11.93	$11,429,737,862	10 / 14
2026-10-24	$11.87	$11,413,092,029	10 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	6
2026-06-01	12	6
2026-07-01	12	6
2026-08-01	12	6
2026-09-01	12	7
2026-10-01	11	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 12 · prior Jul 20

$147.00 → $146.00-0.7%

$0$80.85$161.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted operating margin of 10.5-11% in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain quarterly dividend payout at or above $0.87 per shareDividend per share: $0.87 per share
Generate free cash flow of at least $1.2 billion in FY26Free cash flow: $340M
Sustain revenue growth near 3% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Autoliv outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ALV is an established auto-parts business with a multi-year thesis that depends on improving margins and aligning production capacity. The thesis is still intact, though recent momentum weakened and earnings quality is assessed as fragile.

What's priced into Autoliv

The valuation evidence describes ALV as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in signal is tagged as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is slightly negative, but the snapshot does not explain that measure in enough detail to draw a stronger conclusion about what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the October earnings miss and the decline in company momentum make execution a concern, although the stated miss risk is low. Adjusted operating margin improved from 8.9% in Q1 to 9.7% in Q3, but remains below the roughly 10.5% full-year guidance; restructuring and capacity alignment are still in progress.

What Autoliv hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued margin progress and completed capacity changes would support the multi-year thesis. Sector results also matter: continued strong reports from GPC, BWA, and APTV could sustain a helpful backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.