Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$224.03-1.43%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.08 → 9.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.57B
EPS	—	2.048
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.47B
EPS	—	6.491
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	6.91B
EPS	—	9.636

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Control R&D and SG&A expenses to $2.7B-$2.8B in 2026	A primary condition in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $2.7B and $2.8B.	Intact	expenses exceed $2.8B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reiterated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management maintains non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expense guidance at $2.7B-$2.8B for 2026. Q2 2026 GAAP R&D expenses rose 28% and SG&A expenses rose 8% year-over-year, reflecting increased clinical and marketing investments. The trajectory shows disciplined spending consistent with guidance despite expense growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Expand strategic partnerships to support revenue growth	Partnerships and new RNAi therapies support expanding sales.	Improving	no new partnerships or partnership contractions over next year	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve $4.9B-$5.3B revenue in 2026	A primary condition in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $4.9B and $5.3B.	Broken	revenue falls below $4.9B in FY26	Revenue: $1.291B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $4.9B and $5.3B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261,290,948,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a581d872-ed0c-44b2-a5a7-506258514f00. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.64

$13.44 → $9.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.91B

$7.24B → $6.91B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.44	$7,242,981,810	14 / 23
2026-07-25	$13.44	$7,242,981,810	14 / 23
2026-07-26	$13.44	$7,242,981,810	14 / 23
2026-07-27	$13.44	$7,242,981,810	14 / 23
2026-07-28	$13.44	$7,242,981,810	14 / 23
2026-07-29	$13.40	$7,237,833,980	14 / 23
2026-07-30	$13.40	$7,237,833,980	14 / 23
2026-07-31	$13.07	$7,205,404,300	14 / 22
2026-08-01	$13.07	$7,205,404,300	14 / 22
2026-08-02	$12.73	$7,077,101,760	15 / 25
2026-08-03	$12.73	$7,077,101,760	15 / 25
2026-08-04	$12.73	$7,077,101,760	15 / 25
2026-08-05	$12.60	$6,998,269,760	15 / 25
2026-08-06	$12.51	$7,013,545,760	15 / 25
2026-08-07	$9.99	$7,052,058,293	14 / 19
2026-08-08	$12.60	$6,998,269,760	15 / 25
2026-08-09	$12.60	$6,998,269,760	15 / 25
2026-08-10	$12.60	$6,998,269,760	15 / 25
2026-08-11	$12.60	$6,998,269,760	15 / 25
2026-08-12	$12.60	$6,998,269,760	15 / 25
2026-08-13	$12.60	$6,998,269,760	15 / 25
2026-08-14	$9.99	$7,052,058,293	14 / 19
2026-08-15	$9.99	$7,052,058,293	14 / 19
2026-08-16	$9.99	$7,052,058,293	13 / 19
2026-08-17	$9.99	$7,052,058,293	13 / 19
2026-08-18	$9.99	$7,052,058,293	13 / 19
2026-08-19	$9.99	$7,052,058,293	13 / 19
2026-08-20	$9.99	$7,052,058,293	13 / 19
2026-08-21	$9.56	$6,942,852,231	15 / 20
2026-08-22	$9.56	$6,942,852,231	15 / 20
2026-08-23	$9.56	$6,942,852,231	15 / 20
2026-08-24	$9.56	$6,942,852,231	15 / 20
2026-08-25	$9.56	$6,942,852,231	15 / 20
2026-08-26	$9.56	$6,942,852,231	15 / 20
2026-08-27	$9.56	$6,942,852,231	15 / 20
2026-08-28	$9.56	$6,942,852,231	15 / 20
2026-08-29	$9.56	$6,942,852,231	15 / 20
2026-08-30	$9.56	$6,942,852,231	15 / 20
2026-08-31	$9.56	$6,942,852,231	15 / 20
2026-09-01	$10.15	$6,942,852,391	15 / 20
2026-09-02	$10.15	$6,942,852,391	15 / 20
2026-09-03	$10.15	$6,942,852,391	15 / 20
2026-09-04	$10.15	$6,942,852,391	15 / 20
2026-09-05	$10.15	$6,942,852,391	15 / 20
2026-09-06	$10.15	$6,942,852,391	15 / 20
2026-09-07	$10.15	$6,942,852,391	15 / 20
2026-09-08	$10.15	$6,942,852,391	15 / 20
2026-09-09	$10.08	$6,929,840,391	15 / 20
2026-09-10	$10.08	$6,929,840,391	15 / 20
2026-09-11	$10.08	$6,929,840,391	15 / 20
2026-09-12	$10.08	$6,929,840,391	15 / 20
2026-09-13	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-14	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-15	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-16	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-17	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-18	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-19	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-20	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-21	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-22	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-23	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-24	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-25	$10.08	$6,929,828,231	15 / 20
2026-09-26	$10.08	$6,929,827,219	15 / 20
2026-09-27	$10.08	$6,929,827,219	15 / 20
2026-09-28	$10.08	$6,929,827,219	15 / 20
2026-09-29	$10.08	$6,929,827,219	15 / 20
2026-09-30	$10.08	$6,929,827,219	15 / 20
2026-10-01	$10.05	$6,935,103,095	15 / 20
2026-10-02	$10.05	$6,935,103,095	15 / 20
2026-10-03	$10.05	$6,935,103,095	15 / 20
2026-10-04	$10.05	$6,935,103,095	15 / 20
2026-10-05	$10.05	$6,935,103,095	15 / 20
2026-10-06	$10.05	$6,935,141,557	15 / 20
2026-10-07	$10.05	$6,935,141,557	15 / 20
2026-10-08	$10.05	$6,935,141,557	15 / 20
2026-10-09	$10.05	$6,935,410,788	15 / 20
2026-10-10	$10.05	$6,935,410,788	15 / 20
2026-10-11	$10.05	$6,935,685,776	15 / 20
2026-10-12	$10.05	$6,935,685,776	15 / 20
2026-10-13	$10.05	$6,938,262,699	15 / 20
2026-10-14	$10.05	$6,938,262,699	15 / 20
2026-10-15	$10.02	$6,930,012,507	15 / 20
2026-10-16	$9.92	$6,899,974,737	14 / 21
2026-10-17	$9.92	$6,899,974,737	14 / 21
2026-10-18	$9.85	$6,893,051,882	15 / 21
2026-10-19	$9.85	$6,893,051,882	14 / 21
2026-10-20	$9.85	$6,893,051,882	14 / 21
2026-10-21	$9.85	$6,893,051,882	15 / 21
2026-10-22	$9.63	$6,912,166,697	15 / 21
2026-10-23	$9.64	$6,912,166,697	15 / 21
2026-10-24	$9.64	$6,912,165,438	15 / 21

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	22	8
2026-06-01	22	8
2026-07-01	22	8
2026-08-01	24	6
2026-09-01	23	7
2026-10-01	23	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15

$354.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Aug 14

$256.00 → $253.00-1.2%

RBC CapitalOct 8 · prior Jul 31

$350.00 → $345.00-1.4%

$0$194.70$389.40

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Control R&D and SG&A expenses to $2.7B-$2.8B in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Expand strategic partnerships to support revenue growthQualitative condition
Achieve $4.9B-$5.3B revenue in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-57.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-growth biotechnology business with elevated risk, rather than a proven, consistently profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, though a recent earnings miss and lowered guidance make execution a key watchpoint.

What's priced into Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

The evidence describes ALNY as expensive versus peers, with a 1.46 premium, and the expectations gap is negative. The current valuation is tagged as justified, with no fragility flags, but that leaves the thesis reliant on continued growth and delivery against management’s plans.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, TTR revenue growth remains strong: Q2 2026 revenue rose 89% year over year, while full-year guidance was lowered after demand normalized. Management says its revenue and expense priorities are on track, though research and development and sales expenses rose; the business remains loss-making. A high-miss-rate industry and recent peer misses add risk around the next results.

What Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on delivering the 2026 TTR revenue plan while controlling expenses. A guidance increase next quarter would signal a sharper recovery after the recent reduction, while further weakness could reinforce execution concerns. Healthcare sector momentum, including results and guidance from VRTX, REGN, and MRNA, and a weakening jobs report are additional near-term swing factors.