Aeluma, Inc. (ALMU)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.91-3.63%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aeluma, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	700,000
EPS	—	-0.145
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	3.49M
EPS	—	-0.595
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	18.97M
EPS	—	-0.58

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net losses improve from -$1.8M in Q3 2026	Management is focused on reducing losses.	Broken	Net losses worsen beyond -$1.8M in next 4 quarters	Net income: $-4.013M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Net loss narrows vs -$1.8M in 2026-Q3. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 16, 2026-4,013,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating losses improve from -$3.35M in Q3 2026	A primary condition in Aeluma, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows vs -$3.35M in 2026-Q3.	Broken	Operating losses worsen beyond -$3.35M in next 4 quarters	Operating income: $-4.372M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows vs -$3.35M in 2026-Q3. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 16, 2026-4,372,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $4.2M in FY 2026	A primary condition in Aeluma, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4.2 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Revenue falls below $4.2M in FY 2026	Revenue: $582,000 FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=4.2 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 16, 2026582,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	0	0
2026-06-01	3	0	0
2026-07-01	2	0	0
2026-08-01	2	0	0
2026-09-01	2	0	0
2026-10-01	2	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net losses improve from -$1.8M in Q3 2026Published status: Broken
Operating losses improve from -$3.35M in Q3 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue reaches at least $4.2M in FY 2026Revenue: $582,000

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-78.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aeluma, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth business, not a proven compounder, and it remains loss-making. The thesis is on watch: recent performance weakened, while management has continued work on contracts and manufacturing partnerships.

What's priced into Aeluma, Inc.

The evidence snapshot does not provide a valuation measure or a clear account of market expectations, so whether ALMU is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The lowered guidance and September earnings miss point to a weaker near-term setup, but the evidence does not show how much of that is already reflected in expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results face execution risk after recent misses and a sharp decline in company momentum. For FY 2026, revenue was $4.5 million, slightly below the prior year but within the narrowed guidance range; six new contracts met management’s stated goal, while progress on manufacturing readiness remains mixed.

What Aeluma, Inc. hinges on

The main company-specific swing factor is whether ALMU can reverse course and raise guidance after the earlier reduction, while continuing to secure contracts and expand manufacturing readiness. Rate cuts and continued strength among major technology companies are possible sector tailwinds, but do not resolve ALMU’s own execution risks.