Allstate (ALL)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$247.88+3.46%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Allstate’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

27.51 → 28.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Premium reductions for at least 7.8 million customers in 2026-Q1	A supporting condition in Allstate's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.8 million customers with reduced premiums.	Improving	premium reductions fall below 6 million customers in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Non-GAAP EPS around $30.23 for FY 2026	A primary condition in Allstate's published investment case. The stated target is >= $30.23 non-GAAP EPS.	Intact	EPS falls below $28 in FY 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Policies in force reach at least 212 million by 2026-Q1	Allstate grows policies in force to 212 million by 2026-Q1.	Broken	policies in force fall below 210 million by 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Total policies in force increased from about 208 million in 2024-Q4 to 216 million in 2026-Q2, with auto insurance policies growing 2.8% and homeowners insurance policies growing 2.9% year-over-year in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently emphasized market share growth in auto and homeowners insurance, and the trajectory is delivering with steady policy growth and improved underwriting results. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Protection Plans revenue grows at least 5% in 2026-Q1	Protection Plans revenue rose 13.5% in 2026-Q1, showing strong growth.	Improving	Protection Plans revenue growth falls below 5% in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Protection Plans revenue grew from $512 million in 2024-Q3 to $615 million in 2026-Q2, a 20.1% increase, driven by expanded distribution and international growth. Adjusted net income showed modest fluctuations but remains positive. Management has consistently emphasized expanding Protection Plans and international growth, and the revenue trajectory is delivering steady growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$28.05

$26.51 → $28.05 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$62.11B

$73.49B → $62.11B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$26.51	$73,490,445,060	22 / 7
2026-07-25	$26.51	$73,490,445,060	22 / 7
2026-07-26	$26.51	$73,490,445,060	22 / 7
2026-07-27	$26.36	$63,876,249,886	13 / 5
2026-07-28	$26.51	$73,490,445,060	22 / 7
2026-07-29	$26.51	$73,490,445,060	22 / 7
2026-07-30	$26.51	$73,490,445,060	22 / 7
2026-07-31	$26.51	$73,490,445,060	22 / 7
2026-08-01	$26.51	$73,490,445,060	22 / 7
2026-08-02	$26.51	$73,236,751,950	22 / 7
2026-08-03	$26.51	$73,236,751,950	22 / 7
2026-08-04	$26.51	$73,236,751,950	22 / 7
2026-08-05	$26.51	$73,236,751,950	22 / 7
2026-08-06	$26.51	$73,236,751,950	22 / 7
2026-08-07	$26.48	$63,876,249,884	13 / 5
2026-08-08	$26.48	$63,876,249,884	13 / 5
2026-08-09	$26.98	$71,053,709,660	22 / 7
2026-08-10	$26.98	$71,053,709,660	22 / 7
2026-08-11	$27.09	$72,680,895,960	22 / 8
2026-08-12	$27.44	$72,640,641,340	22 / 8
2026-08-13	$27.44	$72,640,641,340	22 / 8
2026-08-14	$26.48	$63,876,249,884	13 / 5
2026-08-15	$26.48	$63,876,249,884	13 / 6
2026-08-16	$26.48	$63,876,249,884	13 / 6
2026-08-17	$26.48	$63,876,249,884	13 / 6
2026-08-18	$26.48	$63,876,249,884	13 / 6
2026-08-19	$26.48	$63,876,249,884	13 / 6
2026-08-20	$27.36	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-08-21	$27.36	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-08-22	$27.36	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-08-23	$27.36	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-08-24	$27.36	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-08-25	$27.36	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-08-26	$27.36	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-08-27	$27.36	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-08-28	$27.36	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-08-29	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-08-30	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-08-31	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-01	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-02	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-03	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-04	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-05	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-06	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-07	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-08	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-09	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-10	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-11	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-12	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-13	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-14	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-15	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-16	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-17	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-18	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-19	$27.51	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-20	$27.52	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-21	$27.52	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-22	$27.54	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-23	$27.64	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-24	$27.64	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-25	$27.64	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-26	$27.64	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-27	$27.64	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-28	$27.64	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-29	$27.64	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-09-30	$27.64	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-10-01	$27.64	$62,202,778,123	13 / 7
2026-10-02	$27.78	$62,159,691,665	13 / 7
2026-10-03	$27.78	$62,159,691,665	13 / 7
2026-10-04	$27.78	$62,159,691,665	13 / 7
2026-10-05	$27.78	$62,159,691,665	13 / 7
2026-10-06	$27.93	$62,157,942,407	13 / 7
2026-10-07	$27.96	$62,157,942,409	13 / 6
2026-10-08	$28.00	$62,106,386,854	13 / 6
2026-10-09	$28.01	$62,106,386,854	13 / 6
2026-10-10	$28.01	$62,106,386,854	13 / 6
2026-10-11	$28.01	$62,106,386,854	13 / 6
2026-10-12	$28.01	$62,106,386,854	13 / 6
2026-10-13	$28.02	$62,106,386,854	13 / 6
2026-10-14	$28.05	$62,106,386,854	13 / 6
2026-10-15	$28.05	$62,106,386,854	13 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	10	2
2026-06-01	13	11	2
2026-07-01	12	13	3
2026-08-01	11	13	5
2026-09-01	10	10	5
2026-10-01	11	10	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 9 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Aug 7

$250.00 → $236.00-5.6%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 7 · prior Sep 18

$300.00 → $295.00-1.7%

HSBCOct 7 · prior Jul 6

$264.00 → $266.00+0.8%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Aug 6

$226.00 → $221.00-2.2%

Goldman SachsOct 1 · prior Aug 7

$280.00 → $250.00-10.7%

$0$165.00$330.00

1 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Premium reductions for at least 7.8 million customers in 2026-Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Non-GAAP EPS around $30.23 for FY 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Policies in force reach at least 212 million by 2026-Q1Published status: Broken
Protection Plans revenue grows at least 5% in 2026-Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Allstate outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable, long-term thesis in the financial sector. The company is working on increasing market share and expanding its product offerings, but faces headwinds from the broader economic environment.

What's priced into Allstate

The current valuation suggests that the market views ALL as a cheap option compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some negative developments may already be factored into the price.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown stability and is focused on growth priorities, particularly in auto and homeowners insurance. Recent earnings beats and strong capital management indicate a positive trajectory, although the company has a low probability of missing future estimates.

What Allstate hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector peers and the potential for guidance cuts. If major players in the financial sector continue to perform well, it could positively impact ALL, while any shifts in interest rates could pose risks.