Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (ALHC)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.06-4.39%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alignment Healthcare, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-22.9% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.41 → 0.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.33B
EPS	—	-0.049
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.22B
EPS	—	0.141
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	6.5B
EPS	—	0.317

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective leadership drives strategy and growth	Leadership changes strengthen its strategy.	Intact	Significant leadership departures or strategy reversals	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustained profitability with positive EPS	A primary condition in Alignment Healthcare, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.47.	Improving	EPS falls below $0.40 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.47. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.17 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8a1d9dbc-779c-40de-bdac-c5079080717b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage policy risks without material impact	A supporting condition in Alignment Healthcare, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No adverse regulatory changes materially affecting business.	Under Pressure	Material negative regulatory rulings or reimbursement cuts	Star Rating 3.5 vs 4.0 target CMS released 2027 Star Ratings on Oct 8, 2026, downgrading ALHC's California HMO plan from 4.0 to 3.5 stars. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $5.2 billion in FY26	Alignment Healthcare grows revenue about 33% next year to $5.2 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $4.9B in FY26	Revenue: $1.336B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261,335,633,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8a1d9dbc-779c-40de-bdac-c5079080717b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.32

Unavailable → $0.32 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.50B

$6.51B → $6.50B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$6,510,250,680	4 / 11
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$6,510,250,680	4 / 11
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$6,510,250,680	4 / 11
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$6,510,250,680	4 / 11
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$6,510,250,680	4 / 11
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$6,510,250,680	4 / 11
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$6,510,250,680	4 / 11
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$6,512,712,140	4 / 11
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$6,512,712,140	4 / 11
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$6,499,969,310	4 / 11
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$6,499,969,310	4 / 11
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$6,499,969,310	4 / 11
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$6,499,447,670	4 / 11
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$6,499,447,670	4 / 11
2026-08-07	$0.44	$6,501,072,038	6 / 9
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$6,499,447,670	4 / 11
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$6,499,447,670	4 / 11
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$6,499,447,670	4 / 11
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$6,499,447,670	4 / 11
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$6,499,447,670	4 / 11
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$6,499,447,670	4 / 11
2026-08-14	$0.44	$6,501,072,038	6 / 9
2026-08-15	$0.44	$6,501,072,038	6 / 9
2026-08-16	$0.44	$6,501,072,038	6 / 9
2026-08-17	$0.44	$6,501,072,038	6 / 9
2026-08-18	$0.44	$6,501,072,038	6 / 9
2026-08-19	$0.44	$6,501,072,038	6 / 9
2026-08-20	$0.44	$6,501,072,038	6 / 9
2026-08-21	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-08-22	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-08-23	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-08-24	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-08-25	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-08-26	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-08-27	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-08-28	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-08-29	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-08-30	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-08-31	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-01	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-02	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-03	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-04	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-05	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-06	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-07	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-08	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-09	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-10	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-13	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-14	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-15	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-16	$0.43	$6,500,628,113	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$0.43	$6,500,625,954	6 / 9
2026-09-18	$0.43	$6,500,625,954	6 / 9
2026-09-19	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 9
2026-09-20	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 9
2026-09-21	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-09-22	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-09-23	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-09-24	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-09-25	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-09-26	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-09-27	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-09-28	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-09-29	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-09-30	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-10-01	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-10-02	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-10-03	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-10-04	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-10-05	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-10-06	$0.41	$6,490,184,288	6 / 10
2026-10-07	$0.39	$6,494,319,788	6 / 10
2026-10-08	$0.39	$6,494,319,788	5 / 10
2026-10-09	$0.39	$6,494,319,788	5 / 10
2026-10-10	$0.37	$6,502,003,121	5 / 10
2026-10-11	$0.37	$6,502,003,121	5 / 10
2026-10-12	$0.37	$6,502,003,121	5 / 10
2026-10-13	$0.34	$6,501,978,121	5 / 10
2026-10-14	$0.34	$6,501,978,121	5 / 10
2026-10-15	$0.34	$6,501,978,121	5 / 10
2026-10-16	$0.34	$6,501,978,121	5 / 10
2026-10-17	$0.34	$6,501,978,121	5 / 10
2026-10-18	$0.34	$6,501,978,121	5 / 10
2026-10-19	$0.34	$6,501,978,121	5 / 10
2026-10-20	$0.34	$6,501,978,121	5 / 10
2026-10-21	$0.34	$6,500,937,768	5 / 10
2026-10-22	$0.34	$6,500,937,768	5 / 10
2026-10-23	$0.32	$6,504,087,950	5 / 10
2026-10-24	$0.32	$6,504,087,950	5 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	2
2026-06-01	12	2
2026-07-01	12	2
2026-08-01	13	2
2026-09-01	12	2
2026-10-01	12	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 22

$12.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 12 · prior May 1

$22.00 → $9.00-59.1%

ScotiabankOct 9

$9.00New observation · no comparable prior

KeyBancOct 9

$12.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 6 · prior May 26

$16.00 → $10.00-37.5%

$0$12.10$24.20

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective leadership drives strategy and growthQualitative condition
Sustained profitability with positive EPSDiluted EPS: $0.17 per share
Manage policy risks without material impactPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows to about $5.2 billion in FY26Revenue: $1.336B

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-69.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alignment Healthcare, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-growth healthcare business with improving operating results, but it is not yet profitable. The long-term thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.

What's priced into Alignment Healthcare, Inc.

Valuation is neutral: ALHC trades at a modest premium to peers, and the valuation model describes expectations as justified. The evidence suggests expectations are broadly aligned with the business outlook, with no major signs of fragility in what is priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show strong growth: second-quarter revenue rose 31.6% year over year, while adjusted gross profit and adjusted EBITDA also increased. Management raised full-year revenue and membership guidance, but the business remains loss-making, and the recent litigation filing adds uncertainty.

What Alignment Healthcare, Inc. hinges on

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on sustained membership and revenue growth translating into stronger profitability. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility; continued earnings strength among large healthcare companies could support the sector backdrop.