Aktis Oncology, Inc. (AKTS)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-16

$15.06-5.93%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aktis Oncology, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage operating losses near $22.7M and net losses near $18.3M in early 2026	A primary condition in Aktis Oncology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss about -$22.7M and net loss about -$18.3M in 2026-Q1.	Broken	Losses grow materially beyond 2026-Q1 levels without revenue growth	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash and equivalents were $538.5M in 2026-Q1 and $517.3M in 2026-Q2, with management expecting funding to last into 2029. Despite net losses, the company is maintaining financial discipline consistent with its stated funding horizon. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026
Initiate Phase 1b basket trial by Q3 2026 and report data in Q1 2027	It expects early trial data in 2027.	Intact	Trial initiation delayed beyond 2026-Q3 or no data by 2027-Q1	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management initiated Phase 1b trial of AKY-2519 in mCRPC in 2026-Q1 and plans to start a Phase 1b basket trial in other B7-H3 tumors in H2 2026, with preliminary data expected in 2027. The clinical development trajectory is delivering as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026
Enhance board expertise with new directors and science committees	New science leaders joined to improve research.	Intact	Loss of key science leaders or committee disbandment	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The appointment of Dr. Glenn Gormley to the Board and as co-chair of the Science and Technology Committee was announced in April 2026 to strengthen scientific leadership. This is a one-time governance enhancement with no direct financial metrics but supports the company's clinical and corporate progress. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-2.25

$-2.09 → $-2.25 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.01B

$0.02B → $0.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-2.09	$15,614,286	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$-2.09	$15,614,286	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$-2.09	$15,614,286	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-07	$-2.09	$15,614,286	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-11	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-13	$-1.97	$11,550,000	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$-2.09	$15,614,286	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$-2.09	$15,614,286	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$-2.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$-2.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$-2.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$-2.09	$15,614,286	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$-2.15	$12,922,256	6 / 5
2026-08-21	$-2.15	$12,922,256	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-08-23	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-08-24	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-08-25	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-08-26	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-08-27	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-08-28	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-08-29	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-09-04	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$-2.15	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$-2.21	$12,922,256	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-12	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-13	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-14	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-15	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-16	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-26	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-27	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-28	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-29	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-09-30	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-01	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-08	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-09	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-11	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-12	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$-2.26	$13,001,367	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$-2.25	$13,668,033	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$-2.25	$13,668,033	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$-2.25	$13,668,033	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	0	0
2026-06-01	7	0	0
2026-07-01	7	0	0
2026-08-01	9	0	0
2026-09-01	10	0	0
2026-10-01	10	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage operating losses near $22.7M and net losses near $18.3M in early 2026Published status: Broken
Initiate Phase 1b basket trial by Q3 2026 and report data in Q1 2027Qualitative condition
Enhance board expertise with new directors and science committeesQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-53.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aktis Oncology, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is focused on advancing clinical trials while maintaining financial discipline, but recent performance has been inconsistent, leading to uncertainty in the current thesis state.

What's priced into Aktis Oncology, Inc.

The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation with a low expectations gap. There is a sense of fragility, but no immediate concerns have triggered significant market reactions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may remain stable as management continues to prioritize clinical development and financial discipline. However, the near-term risk of missing earnings estimates is elevated, which could impact sentiment.

What Aktis Oncology, Inc. hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the outcomes of clinical trials and the overall performance of the healthcare sector. Key triggers include guidance updates and the performance of sector bellwethers like VRTX, MRNA, and REGN.