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Track AIRO free→AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. (AIRO)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$7.61+0.13%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that AIRO's growth strategy will support its future performance. The company recently acquired a large industrial plot in Denmark, which reinforces this strategy. Revenue growth is currently weak, and the last sales report was below expectations. AIRO trades at a low multiple compared to its peers, which suggests it looks cheap. However, there is a risk of a guidance cut, with a 43% chance of missing estimates. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Market cap
- $238.99M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-02-21
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-12
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.61. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$9.83
Range $9.83 – $9.83
vs price: -23% below
Method agreement : high · 1 method
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$19.71consensus
Range $19.71 – $19.71
vs price: -61% below
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$19.71consensus
Range $19.71 – $19.71
vs price: -61% below
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
Trading -23% versus the 12-month peer-multiple consensus (looks cheap on this basis).
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Compared to peers
2.7xP/S · peer median 3.5x
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E
—
EV/EBITDA
—
FCF yield
-18.8%
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2463).
94th pctl · Industrials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
1 analysts, 67% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): mixed.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.neutral
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$341.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$873.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,969.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mixed'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. AIRO's acquisition of a large industrial plot in Denmark supports its growth strategy, which strengthens the read. However, net sales growth fell below expectations, posing a challenge to its growth outlook.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 10d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on August 12
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is growing and making money. This can affect stock performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth and positive EBITDA.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows a drop in revenue and negative EBITDA.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-281mo agoMoneyControl
Sales growth is below expectations.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in Industrials.
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC meetings
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting AIRO and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AIRO raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-14), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AIRO cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-14), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping AIRO and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits AIRO and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act except as expressly set forth…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.