agilon health, Inc. (AGL)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$89.71-0.64%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge agilon health, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-5.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.82 → 1.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.46B
EPS	—	-3.467
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.83B
EPS	—	-2.326
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	6.24B
EPS	—	1.728

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Positive cash from operating activities	Cash from operations turned positive at $24M.	Improving	Cash from operations falls below $0 in any quarter next year	Cash from operations: $-57.297M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $23.7M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026-57,297,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities improved from negative $67M in first half 2025 to negative $33.6M in first half 2026, showing progress but still negative cash flow. The trajectory is improving but not yet positive. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income turns positive	Operating income rose to $4M in Q1.	Intact	Operating income falls below $0 in any quarter next year	Operating income: $11.77M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 202611,770,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6fd823eb-3c6f-48de-b601-16c518bfd4de. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income improved from negative $116M in 2025-Q2 to positive $11.8M in 2026-Q2; net income improved from negative $104M to positive $18M in the same period. The trajectory shows delivering progress on profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue stabilizes near $5.7B	A primary condition in agilon health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.68B annual revenue.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $5.68B in 2026	Revenue: $1.495B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.68B annual revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20261,494,743,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6fd823eb-3c6f-48de-b601-16c518bfd4de. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.73

$-0.62 → $1.73 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.24B

$6.08B → $6.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.62	$6,079,059,400	8 / 16
2026-07-25	$-0.62	$6,079,059,400	8 / 16
2026-07-26	$-0.62	$6,079,059,400	8 / 16
2026-07-27	$-0.94	$6,079,031,938	8 / 11
2026-07-28	$-0.62	$6,079,059,400	8 / 16
2026-07-29	$-0.62	$6,079,059,400	8 / 16
2026-07-30	$-0.62	$6,079,059,400	8 / 16
2026-07-31	$-0.62	$6,079,059,400	8 / 16
2026-08-01	$-0.62	$6,079,059,400	8 / 16
2026-08-02	$-1.03	$6,079,059,400	7 / 16
2026-08-03	$-1.03	$6,079,059,400	7 / 16
2026-08-04	$-1.03	$6,079,059,400	7 / 16
2026-08-05	$-1.03	$6,079,059,400	7 / 16
2026-08-06	$-0.36	$6,109,461,500	8 / 14
2026-08-07	$0.56	$6,179,218,286	7 / 10
2026-08-08	$-1.27	$6,179,240,030	5 / 15
2026-08-09	$-1.27	$6,179,240,030	5 / 15
2026-08-10	$-1.27	$6,179,240,030	5 / 15
2026-08-11	$1.27	$6,194,653,360	8 / 15
2026-08-12	$1.16	$6,225,309,680	7 / 15
2026-08-13	$1.16	$6,225,309,680	7 / 15
2026-08-14	$0.56	$6,179,218,286	7 / 10
2026-08-15	$0.56	$6,179,218,286	7 / 11
2026-08-16	$0.56	$6,179,218,286	7 / 11
2026-08-17	$0.56	$6,179,218,286	7 / 11
2026-08-18	$0.56	$6,179,218,286	7 / 11
2026-08-19	$0.56	$6,179,218,286	7 / 11
2026-08-20	$0.56	$6,179,218,286	7 / 11
2026-08-21	$1.50	$6,229,740,790	7 / 11
2026-08-22	$1.50	$6,253,865,132	7 / 11
2026-08-23	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-08-24	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-08-25	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-08-26	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-08-27	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-08-28	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-08-29	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-08-30	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-08-31	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-01	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-02	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-03	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-04	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-05	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-06	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-07	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-08	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-09	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-10	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-11	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-12	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-13	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-14	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-15	$1.69	$6,242,068,204	7 / 11
2026-09-16	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 11
2026-09-17	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 11
2026-09-18	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 11
2026-09-19	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 11
2026-09-20	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 11
2026-09-21	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 11
2026-09-22	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 11
2026-09-23	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 11
2026-09-24	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 11
2026-09-25	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 11
2026-09-26	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 10
2026-09-27	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 10
2026-09-28	$1.82	$6,254,190,323	7 / 10
2026-09-29	$1.75	$6,244,929,591	7 / 10
2026-09-30	$1.75	$6,244,929,591	7 / 10
2026-10-01	$1.75	$6,244,929,591	7 / 10
2026-10-02	$1.75	$6,244,929,591	7 / 10
2026-10-03	$1.75	$6,244,929,591	7 / 10
2026-10-04	$1.75	$6,244,929,591	7 / 10
2026-10-05	$1.75	$6,244,929,591	7 / 10
2026-10-06	$1.73	$6,240,986,734	7 / 10
2026-10-07	$1.73	$6,240,986,734	7 / 10
2026-10-08	$1.73	$6,240,986,734	7 / 10
2026-10-09	$1.73	$6,240,986,734	7 / 10
2026-10-10	$1.73	$6,240,986,734	7 / 10
2026-10-11	$1.73	$6,240,986,734	7 / 10
2026-10-12	$1.73	$6,240,986,734	7 / 10
2026-10-13	$1.73	$6,238,384,141	7 / 10
2026-10-14	$1.73	$6,238,384,141	7 / 10
2026-10-15	$1.73	$6,238,384,141	7 / 10
2026-10-16	$1.73	$6,238,384,141	7 / 10
2026-10-17	$1.73	$6,238,384,141	7 / 10
2026-10-18	$1.73	$6,238,384,141	7 / 10
2026-10-19	$1.73	$6,238,384,141	7 / 10
2026-10-20	$1.73	$6,238,389,663	7 / 10
2026-10-21	$1.73	$6,238,384,141	7 / 10
2026-10-22	$1.73	$6,238,384,141	7 / 10
2026-10-23	$1.73	$6,238,384,141	7 / 10
2026-10-24	$1.73	$6,238,384,141	7 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	13	3
2026-06-01	4	11	2
2026-07-01	4	11	3
2026-08-01	4	11	3
2026-09-01	5	11	1
2026-10-01	5	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Positive cash from operating activitiesCash from operations: $-57.297M
Operating income turns positiveOperating income: $11.77M
Revenue stabilizes near $5.7BRevenue: $1.495B

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-69.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

agilon health, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AGL is a healthcare business in a recovery phase, with a cyclical backdrop that can affect results. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed, and earnings quality remains loss-making overall.

What's priced into agilon health, Inc.

The evidence labels the valuation as justified, while also indicating that AGL is cheap versus peers; valuation model confidence is low. The negative expectations gap suggests the market may be cautious, but the snapshot does not show a clear valuation cushion or high fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong progress: revenue and medical margin improved, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised. Operating income and net income turned positive in the latest quarter, but operating cash flow remains negative, and erratic earnings surprises are a risk.

What agilon health, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue and margin growth becoming durable profitability and positive operating cash flow. A guidance reversal could damage management credibility, while weaker job growth could weigh on cyclical healthcare names; continued strong results from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.