Autodesk (ADSK)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$239.90-2.15%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Autodesk’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.18 → 14.17 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow near $2.76 billion	Free cash flow is strong near $2.76 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $2.26B next year	Free cash flow: $561M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.76B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 28, 2026561,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful integration of MaintainX acquisition	The MaintainX acquisition supports future growth.	Intact	MaintainX causes sustained profit margin decline or guidance cut	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 28%	A primary condition in Autodesk's published investment case. The stated target is >=28%.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 22% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 12.8% YoY	A primary condition in Autodesk's published investment case. The stated target is >=12.8% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 12.8% next year	Revenue growth: 16.05% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12.8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 28, 202616.052184 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 04e10050-2cc6-4fa3-a713-20408972792c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$14.17

$14.21 → $14.17 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$9.24B

$9.03B → $9.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.21	$9,034,108,858	19 / 24
2026-07-25	$14.21	$9,034,108,858	19 / 24
2026-07-26	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	19 / 24
2026-07-27	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	19 / 24
2026-07-28	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	19 / 24
2026-07-29	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-07-30	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-07-31	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-01	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-02	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-03	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-04	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-05	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-06	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-07	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-08	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-09	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-10	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-11	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-12	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-13	$14.23	$9,060,545,290	35 / 34
2026-08-14	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-15	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-16	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-17	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-18	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-19	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-20	$14.20	$9,033,308,552	20 / 25
2026-08-21	$14.17	$9,047,954,207	20 / 26
2026-08-22	$14.17	$9,051,517,541	20 / 26
2026-08-23	$14.17	$9,051,517,541	20 / 26
2026-08-24	$14.17	$9,051,517,541	20 / 26
2026-08-25	$14.17	$9,051,517,541	20 / 26
2026-08-26	$14.17	$9,051,517,541	20 / 26
2026-08-27	$14.17	$9,051,517,541	20 / 26
2026-08-28	$14.17	$9,051,517,541	20 / 26
2026-08-29	$14.14	$9,198,299,569	20 / 26
2026-08-30	$14.14	$9,199,394,903	20 / 26
2026-08-31	$14.14	$9,210,548,895	20 / 26
2026-09-01	$14.14	$9,210,548,895	20 / 26
2026-09-02	$14.13	$9,219,588,689	20 / 26
2026-09-03	$14.13	$9,219,588,689	20 / 26
2026-09-04	$14.13	$9,219,588,689	20 / 26
2026-09-05	$14.18	$9,241,343,893	20 / 26
2026-09-06	$14.18	$9,241,359,877	20 / 26
2026-09-07	$14.18	$9,241,359,877	20 / 26
2026-09-08	$14.18	$9,241,359,877	20 / 26
2026-09-09	$14.18	$9,241,359,877	20 / 26
2026-09-10	$14.18	$9,241,359,877	20 / 26
2026-09-11	$14.18	$9,241,359,877	20 / 26
2026-09-12	$14.18	$9,241,359,877	20 / 26
2026-09-13	$14.18	$9,241,359,877	20 / 26
2026-09-14	$14.18	$9,241,359,877	20 / 26
2026-09-15	$14.18	$9,241,359,877	20 / 26
2026-09-16	$14.18	$9,238,817,381	20 / 26
2026-09-17	$14.18	$9,238,817,381	20 / 26
2026-09-18	$14.18	$9,238,817,381	20 / 26
2026-09-19	$14.18	$9,238,817,381	20 / 26
2026-09-20	$14.17	$9,238,469,640	20 / 26
2026-09-21	$14.17	$9,238,469,640	20 / 26
2026-09-22	$14.17	$9,238,479,015	20 / 26
2026-09-23	$14.17	$9,238,479,015	20 / 26
2026-09-24	$14.17	$9,238,479,015	20 / 26
2026-09-25	$14.17	$9,238,479,015	20 / 26
2026-09-26	$14.17	$9,238,479,015	20 / 26
2026-09-27	$14.17	$9,238,479,015	20 / 26
2026-09-28	$14.17	$9,238,479,015	20 / 26
2026-09-29	$14.17	$9,238,479,015	20 / 26
2026-09-30	$14.17	$9,238,479,015	20 / 26
2026-10-01	$14.17	$9,238,479,015	20 / 25
2026-10-02	$14.17	$9,238,479,015	20 / 26
2026-10-03	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	20 / 26
2026-10-04	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	20 / 26
2026-10-05	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	20 / 26
2026-10-06	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	20 / 26
2026-10-07	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	20 / 26
2026-10-08	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	20 / 26
2026-10-09	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	21 / 26
2026-10-10	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	21 / 26
2026-10-11	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	21 / 26
2026-10-12	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	21 / 26
2026-10-13	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	21 / 26
2026-10-14	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	21 / 26
2026-10-15	$14.17	$9,238,471,758	21 / 26

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	30	4
2026-06-01	31	3
2026-07-01	32	4
2026-08-01	31	6
2026-09-01	31	6
2026-10-01	30	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 30 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerSep 28 · prior Aug 28

$338.00 → $300.00-11.2%

Goldman SachsSep 17 · prior Aug 11

$260.00 → $265.00+1.9%

$0$185.90$371.80

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow near $2.76 billionFree cash flow: $561M
Successful integration of MaintainX acquisitionQualitative condition
Operating margin near 28%Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth at or above 12.8% YoYRevenue growth: 16.05%

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Autodesk outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder investment focused on long-term growth. The current thesis state is intact, with management executing on key priorities and recent financial performance showing strength.

What's priced into Autodesk

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with Autodesk being seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully anticipate the potential upside from the company's recent initiatives.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue showing strong revenue and billings growth, as management is on track with their priorities. However, there is an elevated risk due to the company's recent history of missing earnings expectations.

What Autodesk hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to successfully integrate the MaintainX acquisition and sustain revenue growth. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance from sector peers will play a significant role in shaping future outcomes.