Adagio Medical Holdings Inc (ADGM)

Q: What's priced into Adagio Medical Holdings Inc (ADGM) stock?

ADGM trades at a roughly threefold premium to peers, though confidence in that valuation comparison is low. The evidence points to a durable premium, but does not establish that the market has priced in ULTA’s full regulatory or commercial potential.

Q: What does the Adagio Medical Holdings Inc (ADGM) outlook hinge on?

The key company-specific swing factor is whether FDA approval arrives as expected and whether ULTA’s clinical results translate into further progress. A guidance cut would be a negative signal, while continued weak employment data could raise recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names; stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support the broader sector backdrop.

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.10-7.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Adagio Medical Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.26
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-1.09
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.53M
EPS	—	-1.16

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations improves toward break-even	Cash from operations improved by $3.1M.	Broken	Cash from operations worsens beyond negative $6 million	Cash from operations: $-5.26M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= negative $4.1 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 11, 2026-5,260,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Regain Nasdaq minimum bid price compliance	A supporting condition in Adagio Medical Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Regain compliance with Nasdaq minimum bid price rule.	Under Pressure	Failure to regain Nasdaq compliance within 2 quarters	Stock $0.10 vs $1.00 target Nasdaq non-compliance notice issued June 2026. Stock price collapsed to $0.10 by October 2026, failing to regain compliance within the 2-quarter window. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company received Nasdaq deficiency notices in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 for non-compliance with minimum bid price and stockholders’ equity requirements. Management is addressing these regulatory challenges, but the situation reflects ongoing compliance risks. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net loss and EPS improve steadily	A primary condition in Adagio Medical Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Net loss <= $7 million and EPS >= -$0.31.	Improving	Net loss rises above $8 million or EPS falls below -$0.5	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating loss improves toward financial stability	Operating loss fell from $7.4M to $5.2M.	Broken	Operating loss worsens beyond negative $7 million	Operating income: $-4.934M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss <= negative $5.2 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 11, 2026-4,934,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: eacde1c4-109e-40a0-b194-7c2b91cebdb6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
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2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
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2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
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2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	0	0
2026-06-01	3	0	0
2026-07-01	3	0	0
2026-08-01	3	0	0
2026-09-01	3	0	0
2026-10-01	3	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations improves toward break-evenPublished status: Broken
Regain Nasdaq minimum bid price compliancePublished status: Under Pressure
Net loss and EPS improve steadilyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating loss improves toward financial stabilityPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-94.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Adagio Medical Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, development-stage medical technology business with speculative growth characteristics, not a proven compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: clinical milestones are progressing, but financial performance remains loss-making and management execution is rated volatile.

What's priced into Adagio Medical Holdings Inc

ADGM trades at a roughly threefold premium to peers, though confidence in that valuation comparison is low. The evidence points to a durable premium, but does not establish that the market has priced in ULTA’s full regulatory or commercial potential.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, results may remain pressured by quarterly operating cash use of $3.0 million to $5.26 million and net losses of $3.3 million to $6.7 million; cash was $12.9 million at the end of 2026 Q1. The ULTA PMA application has been submitted, and FDA approval is expected in Q4 2026, while the pivotal trial reported 84% freedom from ICD shock and 2.4% major adverse events at six months. Near-term reporting risk is notable, and recent filings include a workforce reduction, an equity-securities notice, and a notice concerning continued listing requirements.

What Adagio Medical Holdings Inc hinges on

The key company-specific swing factor is whether FDA approval arrives as expected and whether ULTA’s clinical results translate into further progress. A guidance cut would be a negative signal, while continued weak employment data could raise recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names; stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support the broader sector backdrop.

Bottom line

Over the next one to three years, ADGM’s long-term thesis depends on regulatory progress and evidence that the technology can advance while cash use remains manageable. The clinical and sector signals are constructive, but losses, financing pressure, and execution risks remain important. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.26
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-1.09
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.53M
EPS	—	-1.16

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings