Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$31.51-1.16%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Acadia Healthcare’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.85 → 1.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	855.62M
EPS	—	0.337
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.43B
EPS	—	1.526
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.63B
EPS	—	1.847

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA at least $144 million in Q1 2026	Profit rises with EBITDA near $144 million in Q1.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $134 million in Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management updated full year 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA from $575-$610 million in 2025-Q4 to $590-$615 million in 2026-Q2, and Adjusted EPS from $1.30-$1.55 to $1.45-$1.60. The trajectory shows management is delivering on improving profitability and earnings guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Add at least 82 new licensed beds in Q1 2026	The company adds new beds to expand capacity.	Under Pressure	New beds added fall below 82 in Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management added 181 beds in 2025-Q4, 82 beds in 2026-Q1, and 240 beds in 2026-Q2, demonstrating consistent progress in expanding facility capacity through new and existing facilities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows about 5% annually	Acadia grows revenue about 5% a year.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 4.8% in FY26	Revenue growth: -0.39% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026-0.390345 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5d2aba21-e80e-4d32-9ede-0df806c8f9f2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete strategic acquisitions to support growth	A supporting condition in Acadia Healthcare's published investment case. The stated target is Complete planned acquisitions in 2026.	Intact	No strategic acquisitions completed in FY26	2 acquisitions completed vs 0 required Form 8-K filings dated April 29 and July 28, 2026, report completed acquisitions. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management completed multiple joint venture facility openings including two in 2026-Q2 and a 144-bed JV facility in 2025-Q4. This shows ongoing execution of strategic acquisitions and partnerships. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.85

$1.76 → $1.85 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.63B

$3.62B → $3.63B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.76	$3,615,510,890	13 / 11
2026-07-25	$1.76	$3,615,510,890	13 / 11
2026-07-26	$1.76	$3,615,510,890	13 / 11
2026-07-27	$1.76	$3,616,296,715	7 / 9
2026-07-28	$1.76	$3,616,296,715	7 / 9
2026-07-29	$1.76	$3,615,510,890	13 / 11
2026-07-30	$1.76	$3,615,510,890	13 / 11
2026-07-31	$1.76	$3,615,510,890	13 / 11
2026-08-01	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	12 / 12
2026-08-02	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	13 / 12
2026-08-05	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	13 / 12
2026-08-06	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	13 / 12
2026-08-07	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	13 / 12
2026-08-08	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	13 / 12
2026-08-09	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	13 / 12
2026-08-10	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	13 / 12
2026-08-11	$1.82	$3,628,243,255	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	13 / 12
2026-08-13	$1.82	$3,628,284,920	13 / 12
2026-08-14	$1.82	$3,628,243,255	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$1.82	$3,628,243,255	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$1.82	$3,628,243,255	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$1.82	$3,628,243,255	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$1.82	$3,628,243,255	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$1.82	$3,628,243,255	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$1.82	$3,628,243,255	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-08-30	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-08-31	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-01	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-02	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$1.82	$3,628,252,422	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$1.82	$3,628,249,589	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$1.82	$3,628,249,589	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$1.82	$3,628,249,589	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$1.82	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-09-21	$1.82	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-09-22	$1.82	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-09-23	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-09-25	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-09-26	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-09-27	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-09-28	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-09-29	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-09-30	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-10-01	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-10-02	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-10-03	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$1.85	$3,628,098,755	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$1.85	$3,628,053,589	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$1.85	$3,628,053,589	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$1.85	$3,628,053,589	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$1.85	$3,628,053,589	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$1.85	$3,628,053,589	8 / 10
2026-10-12	$1.85	$3,628,053,589	8 / 10
2026-10-13	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10
2026-10-14	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10
2026-10-16	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10
2026-10-17	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10
2026-10-18	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10
2026-10-19	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10
2026-10-20	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10
2026-10-21	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10
2026-10-22	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10
2026-10-23	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10
2026-10-24	$1.85	$3,628,088,355	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	6	1
2026-06-01	8	6	1
2026-07-01	8	5	1
2026-08-01	8	5	1
2026-09-01	9	5	1
2026-10-01	8	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesSep 28

$39.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$21.45$42.90

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA at least $144 million in Q1 2026Published status: Broken
Add at least 82 new licensed beds in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows about 5% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Acadia Healthcare outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an operational improvement and capacity-growth thesis in a healthcare business, with a sector tailwind. The thesis state is watch: management has raised 2026 earnings guidance, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort and earnings quality is fragile.

What's priced into Acadia Healthcare

ACHC is described as cheap versus peers, while the overall valuation assessment is neutral and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence suggests weak execution quality is partly reflected in valuation, but does not establish that all business risks are priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results include a July earnings beat, and management has raised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS guidance while adding beds. These are signs of progress, but erratic earnings surprises, weaker performance than peers, and September litigation remain risks; the evidence on the litigation's effect is thin.

What Acadia Healthcare hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on management sustaining higher guidance and continuing to add facility capacity. A guidance reversal would damage credibility, while weaker jobs data could pressure cyclical healthcare names; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.