Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$28.19+2.51%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EBITDA at least $144 million in Q1 2026: EBITDA not reported.
Acadia grows revenue about 5% a year. Profit rises with EBITDA near $144 million in Q1. The company adds new beds to expand capacity. Acquisitions help growth and improve earnings.
Litigation and CFO turnover could hurt operations. Growth may slow below 5%. Profit margins could shrink from rising costs.
The price is about 4% above our fair value near $31. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth. We agree with these views.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $134 million in Q1 2026
Breaks if: New beds added fall below 82 in Q1 2026
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 4.8% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
ACHC represents a cyclical investment in the healthcare sector, which is currently experiencing a tailwind. The thesis is in a watch state, reflecting concerns over recent weak financial performance and management volatility.
The market appears to be pricing in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below peers. There is a low level of fragility noted, suggesting that while the execution quality is weak, it is not fully reflected in the current valuation.
Management is on track with priorities to increase adjusted EBITDA and expand facility capacity, though the completion of strategic acquisitions is mixed. Recent financial performance has been weak, and there is a low probability of missing expectations in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on strategic priorities. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and broader economic indicators, like the jobs report, will significantly influence ACHC's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. The company raised its Adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance. This signals better financial management and growth potential. There are no new threats affecting the outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: No strategic acquisitions completed in FY26
Pursue and complete acquisitions to expand market presence and service offerings.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Multiple acquisitions were completed as reported in 8-K filings in 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, and 2026-Q2. While specific financial impacts are not detailed, the recurring completion of acquisitions indicates ongoing execution of this strategic priority.
“ACHC — acquisition completed”
“ACHC — acquisition completed”
“ACHC — acquisition completed”
In the next 1 to 3 years, ACHC's performance will depend on management execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.