Accendra Health, Inc. (ACH)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.22+3.08%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Accendra Health, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	631.49M
EPS	—	0.254
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.49B
EPS	—	0.003
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.57B
EPS	—	0.11

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA between $335M and $355M in FY26	The company affirms revenue guidance near $2.6B and adjusted EBITDA around $345M.	Broken	adjusted EBITDA falls below $335M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management updated 2026 revenue guidance downward from $2.55-$2.65B to $2.45-$2.55B and adjusted EBITDA guidance from $335-$355M to $300-$320M, with free cash flow guidance revised to breakeven to slightly positive. The trajectory shows a modest downward revision but management is maintaining focus on these financial targets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Manage debt refinancing and litigation impact	A supporting condition in Accendra Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is no material cash flow impairment from debt or litigation.	Under Pressure	material cash flow impairment or credit downgrade from debt/litigation	OCF -50.1M vs no impairment target Negative OCF and declining margins indicate stalled recovery and material cash flow impairment from debt/litigation. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow between $90M and $110M in FY26	Accendra Health aims to generate free cash flow of $90M to $110M in 2026.	Under Pressure	free cash flow falls below $90M in FY26	Free cash flow: $-73.592M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $90M and $110M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026-73,592,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $2.55B to $2.65B in FY26	A primary condition in Accendra Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $2.55B and $2.65B.	Broken	revenue falls below $2.55B in FY26	Revenue: $613.234M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $2.55B and $2.65B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026613,234,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 27bc9055-3ecf-4d92-9235-f3f8ad6a80ed. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management updated 2026 revenue guidance downward from $2.55-$2.65B to $2.45-$2.55B and adjusted EBITDA guidance from $335-$355M to $300-$320M, with free cash flow guidance revised to breakeven to slightly positive. The trajectory shows a modest downward revision but management is maintaining focus on these financial targets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-29	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-07	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	$0.58	$2,602,353,210	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$0.58	$2,602,353,210	5 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	2	2
2026-06-01	2	2	2
2026-07-01	2	2	2
2026-08-01	2	4	2
2026-09-01	0	4	2
2026-10-01	0	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA between $335M and $355M in FY26Published status: Broken
Manage debt refinancing and litigation impactPublished status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow between $90M and $110M in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue near $2.55B to $2.65B in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-96.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Accendra Health, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ACH is a high-risk turnaround with recent financial performance described as strong, but it remains loss-making. The thesis is intact, though management execution is volatile and the latest quarter was missed.

What's priced into Accendra Health, Inc.

ACH is assessed as cheap versus peers, while the model’s expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are already demanding relative to the evidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, but valuation rose notably in the latest update.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results depend on management reaffirming 2026 guidance after reducing revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges; free cash flow guidance is now around breakeven. Debt reduction and expense cuts show progress, but operating losses remain and the next report carries elevated miss risk. A recent delisting-rule notice and CEO transition add uncertainty.

What Accendra Health, Inc. hinges on

The thesis would weaken if management cuts guidance again or employment data keeps deteriorating, since weaker economic conditions can pressure cyclical healthcare businesses. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the industry backdrop, while debt restructuring and cost control remain important company-specific tests.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, ACH’s thesis rests on turning recent performance into steadier execution, improving losses, and managing debt despite meaningful near-term risks. The multi-year view remains intact, but evidence is mixed. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	631.49M
EPS	—	0.254
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.49B
EPS	—	0.003
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.57B
EPS	—	0.11

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-29	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-07	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$0.69	$2,676,767,010	6 / 6
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	$0.58	$2,602,353,210	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$0.58	$2,602,353,210	5 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings