Arcosa, Inc. (ACA)

NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$149.15+0.08%

Close 2026-10-22 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arcosa, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	643.93M
EPS	—	1.015
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.6B
EPS	—	4.28
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.84B
EPS	—	4.868

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Debt reduction and improved leverage ratio	A supporting condition in Arcosa, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA <= 2.0x.	Intact	Net Debt to EBITDA rises above 2.3x next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion	A supporting condition in Arcosa, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EBITDA margin >= 18%.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 17% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance	Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $2.6-$2.7 billion and EBITDA to $545-$585 million.	Intact	Full year revenue or EBITDA falls below $2.6B or $545M respectively	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth in Construction Products and Engineered Structures	Arcosa focuses on growing its Construction Products and Engineered Structures segments.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 4% in these segments next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Utility structures revenue growth and margin expansion	Utility structures revenue grew 15% with backlog up 28%.	Broken	Utility structures revenue growth falls below 10% or margin below 18% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	0
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	2	1
2026-08-01	2	2
2026-09-01	2	2
2026-10-01	1	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Debt reduction and improved leverage ratioDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted EBITDA margin expansionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Full year 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth in Construction Products and Engineered StructuresPublished status: Broken
Utility structures revenue growth and margin expansionPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arcosa, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ACA is a business-improvement and growth thesis, led by utility structures and a more focused portfolio. The multi-year view remains on watch: earnings quality and management are rated robust and stable, but recent financial performance is neutral and confidence has eased to medium.

What's priced into Arcosa, Inc.

ACA is described as cheap versus peers, with a meaningful expectations gap, but the pricing signal is tagged unjustified and model confidence is high. Fragility is low, yet that does not remove the risk that weak results or sector headwinds challenge current expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, utility and related structures are showing growth: revenue rose 12% in 2026-Q2, and backlog was up 49% from the start of the year. Leverage also improved from 2.3x to 1.9x, while recent performance remains below its industry cohort and earnings have been erratic with consecutive misses. Portfolio simplification is underway after the barge sale, though execution remains a watch item.

What Arcosa, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on ACA converting utility-structure demand and its larger backlog into sustained results while continuing to simplify the business and strengthen its finances. Near term, a reversal of the guidance raise made by 2026-04-30 would damage credibility; results and guidance from sector peers JCI, MAS, and CSL could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.