Ameris Bancorp (ABCB)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$82.63+0.32%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ameris Bancorp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.03 → 7.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	326.73M
EPS	—	1.706
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.29B
EPS	—	6.633
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.35B
EPS	—	7.02

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.20 per share	The bank keeps paying a $0.20 quarterly dividend.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.20 in 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.20 USD per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7faeaffe-2aa4-4dcc-bb8a-dead4dc79b0e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS reaches at least $6.00 in fiscal 2025	A primary condition in Ameris Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.00 USD per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $6.00 in fiscal 2025	Diluted EPS: $0.77 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.00 USD per share. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 20260.77 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7faeaffe-2aa4-4dcc-bb8a-dead4dc79b0e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income increases to at least $140.7 million in Q1 2026	Operating income rose to $140.7 million in Q1 2026.	Intact	Operating income falls below $140 million in Q1 2026	Operating income: $66.049M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=140.7 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202666,049,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth stays above -2% next year	A primary condition in Ameris Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >-2% YoY.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below -2% in 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.02

$7.11 → $7.02 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.35B

$1.36B → $1.35B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.11	$1,364,336,800	7 / 5
2026-07-25	$7.11	$1,364,436,800	7 / 5
2026-07-26	$7.11	$1,364,436,800	7 / 5
2026-07-27	$7.06	$1,358,496,800	7 / 5
2026-07-28	$7.06	$1,358,496,800	7 / 5
2026-07-29	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-07-31	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-02	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-08	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-11	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$7.03	$1,353,918,000	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-15	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-16	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-17	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-18	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-19	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-20	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-21	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-22	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-23	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-24	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-25	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-26	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-27	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-28	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-29	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-30	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-08-31	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-01	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-02	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-03	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-04	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-05	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-06	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-07	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-08	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-09	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-10	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-11	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-12	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-13	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-14	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-15	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-16	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-17	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-18	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-19	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-20	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-21	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-22	$7.03	$1,353,850,400	6 / 5
2026-09-23	$7.03	$1,354,467,400	6 / 5
2026-09-24	$7.03	$1,354,467,400	6 / 5
2026-09-25	$7.03	$1,354,467,400	6 / 5
2026-09-26	$7.03	$1,354,467,400	6 / 5
2026-09-27	$7.03	$1,354,467,400	6 / 5
2026-09-28	$7.03	$1,354,467,400	6 / 5
2026-09-29	$7.03	$1,354,467,400	6 / 5
2026-09-30	$7.03	$1,354,467,400	6 / 5
2026-10-01	$7.03	$1,354,467,400	6 / 5
2026-10-02	$7.02	$1,353,667,400	6 / 5
2026-10-03	$7.02	$1,353,667,400	6 / 5
2026-10-04	$7.02	$1,353,667,400	6 / 5
2026-10-05	$7.02	$1,353,667,400	6 / 5
2026-10-06	$7.02	$1,353,667,400	6 / 5
2026-10-07	$7.02	$1,353,667,400	6 / 5
2026-10-08	$7.02	$1,353,667,400	6 / 5
2026-10-09	$7.03	$1,353,667,400	6 / 5
2026-10-10	$7.03	$1,353,667,400	6 / 5
2026-10-11	$7.03	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-12	$7.03	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-13	$7.03	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-14	$7.03	$1,353,573,050	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$7.03	$1,353,573,050	6 / 5
2026-10-16	$7.03	$1,353,573,050	6 / 5
2026-10-17	$7.03	$1,353,573,050	6 / 5
2026-10-18	$7.03	$1,353,573,050	6 / 5
2026-10-19	$7.03	$1,353,573,050	6 / 5
2026-10-20	$7.03	$1,353,573,050	6 / 5
2026-10-21	$7.03	$1,353,573,050	6 / 5
2026-10-22	$7.03	$1,353,573,050	6 / 5
2026-10-23	$7.03	$1,353,573,050	6 / 5
2026-10-24	$7.02	$1,350,632,667	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	2
2026-06-01	5	2
2026-07-01	5	4
2026-08-01	3	4
2026-09-01	3	4
2026-10-01	3	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 9 · prior Jul 28

$90.00 → $84.00-6.7%

$0$49.50$99.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.20 per shareDividend per share: $0.20 per share
EPS reaches at least $6.00 in fiscal 2025Published status: Broken
Operating income increases to at least $140.7 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $66.049M
Revenue growth stays above -2% next yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ameris Bancorp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ABCB is a regional banking growth and efficiency story, with a multi-year view that currently remains intact. Management has delivered growth and capital returns, but the recent earnings misses make the near-term picture less steady.

What's priced into Ameris Bancorp

Valuation is neutral versus peers, with a modest premium and expectations broadly aligned with the evidence. The priced-in assessment is justified, and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, revenue growth, loan and deposit growth, and improving efficiency support continued operating progress. Near term, momentum weakened after the latest earnings miss, following another miss in July; the stated miss risk is low, but this run of misses remains a concern. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and expense discipline is on watch despite recent improvement.

What Ameris Bancorp hinges on

The key near-term risk is a guidance cut, which could deepen estimate reductions. Rate cuts could also weigh on financial firms, while strong earnings and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum. Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on disciplined growth across the Southeast and sustained expense control.