Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-15

$369.01-2.25%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Zebra Technologies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

22.20 → 22.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete exit of robotics automation solutions business	A supporting condition in Zebra Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is Robotics business fully disposed by end of FY26.	Intact	Robotics business not exited or causes material losses	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve at least $900 million free cash flow	It aims for $900 million free cash flow in 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $800 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $198M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=900 million USD free cash flow. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026198,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 9.5% annually	A primary condition in Zebra Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.5% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 20.42% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202620.417633 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 25832ada-aae9-4552-a919-e165f925f9e2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase share repurchase authorization by $1 billion	A supporting condition in Zebra Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase $1 billion buyback authorization.	Intact	No further buyback authorization or buybacks halted	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$22.32

$20.59 → $22.32 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.61B

$6.38B → $6.61B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$20.59	$6,382,563,381	11 / 12
2026-07-25	$20.72	$6,391,004,160	18 / 17
2026-07-26	$20.59	$6,382,563,381	11 / 12
2026-07-27	$20.72	$6,391,004,160	18 / 17
2026-07-28	$20.59	$6,382,563,381	11 / 12
2026-07-29	$20.58	$6,380,780,840	11 / 12
2026-07-30	$20.71	$6,389,971,980	17 / 16
2026-07-31	$20.58	$6,380,780,840	11 / 12
2026-08-01	$20.58	$6,380,780,840	11 / 12
2026-08-02	$20.58	$6,380,780,840	11 / 12
2026-08-03	$20.71	$6,389,971,980	17 / 16
2026-08-04	$20.58	$6,380,780,840	11 / 12
2026-08-05	$21.22	$6,451,668,280	17 / 16
2026-08-06	$20.58	$6,380,780,840	11 / 12
2026-08-08	$22.13	$6,555,382,310	17 / 16
2026-08-09	$22.07	$6,556,106,924	11 / 12
2026-08-10	$22.13	$6,555,382,310	17 / 16
2026-08-12	$22.07	$6,556,106,924	11 / 12
2026-08-13	$22.12	$6,565,375,750	17 / 16
2026-08-14	$22.07	$6,556,106,924	11 / 12
2026-08-15	$22.07	$6,556,106,924	11 / 12
2026-08-16	$22.07	$6,556,106,924	11 / 12
2026-08-17	$22.07	$6,556,106,924	11 / 12
2026-08-18	$22.07	$6,556,106,924	11 / 12
2026-08-19	$22.07	$6,556,106,924	11 / 12
2026-08-20	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-08-21	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-08-22	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-08-23	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-08-24	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-08-25	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-09-10	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-09-11	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-09-12	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-09-13	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-09-14	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-09-15	$22.20	$6,593,852,503	11 / 12
2026-09-16	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	11 / 11
2026-09-17	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	11 / 11
2026-09-18	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	11 / 11
2026-09-19	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	11 / 11
2026-09-20	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$22.22	$6,600,548,850	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$22.25	$6,604,401,352	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$22.25	$6,604,401,352	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$22.25	$6,604,401,352	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$22.25	$6,604,401,352	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$22.25	$6,604,401,352	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$22.25	$6,604,401,352	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$22.25	$6,604,401,352	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$22.27	$6,609,785,967	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$22.28	$6,611,247,506	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$22.28	$6,611,247,506	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$22.28	$6,611,247,506	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$22.28	$6,611,247,506	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$22.28	$6,611,247,506	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$22.28	$6,611,247,506	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$22.32	$6,613,827,712	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$22.32	$6,613,827,712	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$22.32	$6,613,827,712	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	5
2026-06-01	14	4
2026-07-01	14	5
2026-08-01	12	5
2026-09-01	11	6
2026-10-01	10	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Aug 5

$355.00 → $378.00+6.5%

$0$207.90$415.80

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete exit of robotics automation solutions businessQualitative condition
Achieve at least $900 million free cash flowFree cash flow: $198M
Sustain revenue growth near 9.5% annuallyRevenue growth: 20.42%
Increase share repurchase authorization by $1 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Zebra Technologies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on sustainable growth and innovation. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent strong earnings and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

What's priced into Zebra Technologies

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with ZBRA appearing cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully reflect the company's potential for growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued strength, as management is on track to achieve its goals for revenue growth and free cash flow. However, there is some near-term risk due to a low probability of missing earnings expectations, despite recent strong performance.

What Zebra Technologies hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's potential rate cuts and the performance of sector leaders like CSCO and LITE. A reversal in guidance from ZBRA could negatively impact credibility and stock performance.