Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$45.38-0.53%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Clear Secure, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	293.58M
EPS	—	0.483
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.11B
EPS	—	1.833
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.27B
EPS	—	2.197

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow raised to at least $465 million in 2026	Free cash flow guidance was raised to $465 million for 2026.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $400 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $188.982M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $465 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026188,982,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income margin near 22.3% in Q1 2026	Profit margins are strong, with operating income at 24.5% margin and net income margin at 22.3%.	Improving	net income margin falls below 18% over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income margin near 24.5% in Q1 2026	Profit margins are strong, with operating income at 24.5% margin and net income margin at 22.3%.	Intact	operating margin falls below 20% over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating income increased from $42.6 million in 2025-Q2 to $83.0 million in 2026-Q2, with margin expanding from approximately 19.4% to 29.9%. Management has consistently emphasized margin expansion and is delivering significant improvement in operating income and margins. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth reaching at least $1.08 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Clear Secure, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.08 billion.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $1.0 billion in FY26	Revenue: $277.757M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.08 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026277,757,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4e0d802e-97d3-40c2-ac6a-8f9350520e47. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $219.5 million in 2025-Q2 to $277.8 million in 2026-Q2, a 26.6% increase. Third quarter 2026 revenue guidance anticipates 24.6% year-over-year growth at midpoint. The trajectory is delivering consistent strong revenue growth as management has emphasized. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,237,082,600	3 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,237,082,600	3 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,237,082,600	3 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,237,082,600	3 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,237,082,600	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,237,082,600	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,237,082,600	3 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,259,096,600	3 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,259,096,600	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	2	1
2026-06-01	4	2	1
2026-07-01	3	2	1
2026-08-01	4	1	1
2026-09-01	4	1	1
2026-10-01	4	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

NeedhamOct 7

$70.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$38.50$77.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow raised to at least $465 million in 2026Free cash flow: $188.982M
Net income margin near 22.3% in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income margin near 24.5% in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth reaching at least $1.08 billion in FY26Revenue: $277.757M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Clear Secure, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

YOU is a growth company with improving operating performance, rather than a mature, steady business. The long-term thesis is intact, but risk is elevated and confidence has eased from high to medium.

What's priced into Clear Secure, Inc.

The evidence labels the valuation as justified and reports low fragility, meaning it does not flag unusually concentrated expectations. The expectations-gap measure is negative, but the snapshot gives no scale or plain-language interpretation, so the degree of optimism already reflected is unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Through the multi-year view, recent results show strong revenue growth and expanding operating margins. Membership is growing, though CLEAR+ subscriber growth makes that priority a mixed result; near term, the main business risk is a reversal of the guidance increase issued in August, despite a low estimated chance of a miss.

What Clear Secure, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on management sustaining growth and margin gains without reversing its recently raised guidance, which would also hurt credibility. Near term, Fed rate cuts and continued strong results from sector peers could support technology-sector momentum, while peer misses and YOU’s history of a deep miss remain risks.