CBDMD INC (YCBD)
AMEXHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-09
$0.49-1.56%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
AMEXHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating income improves toward break-even: metric not reported.
CBDMD grows revenue about 13% next year to ~$22 million. It expands by buying other companies. The company tries to cut costs but still loses money. Its stock is cheap compared to peers.
CBDMD keeps losing money and fails to improve profit. Revenue growth slows below 13%. The company struggles to manage costs and capital. The stock stays weak or falls more.
The market expects about 13% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is near $4.97, reflecting this growth. We see risk in profit and cost control that the market may underestimate.
Breaks if: Capital allocation worsens or creates financial stress next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Operating loss worsens or stays below -$800,000 next 4 quarters
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround play in the healthcare sector, focusing on consumer wellness. The current thesis state is weakened, reflecting recent financial struggles and a shift from robust to fragile performance.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, with YCBD being viewed as cheap compared to its peers. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may anticipate further challenges ahead.
Fundamentals may remain under pressure in the near term, especially given the company's recent financial performance, which has been weak. The probability of missing earnings is notable, particularly for a smaller-cap name like YCBD.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its priorities, such as expanding its consumer wellness platform and managing capital allocation effectively. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and broader economic indicators will play a crucial role in shaping outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped significantly, moving from the robust half to the weak half of its industry. This change indicates a decline in the reasons to own the stock. However, the acquisition of Twinlab supplement brands may support future growth and revenue objectives.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below ~$19.5 million (about 7% growth) in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, YCBD's trajectory will depend on its strategic execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.