Dentsply Sirona (XRAY)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.43-0.74%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dentsply Sirona’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.51 → 1.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	935.11M
EPS	—	0.455
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$3.5B–$3.6B	3.57B
EPS	$1.4–$1.5non-GAAP	1.53
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.61B
EPS	—	1.494

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve liquidity and manage cash effectively	A supporting condition in Dentsply Sirona's published investment case. The stated target is maintain cash above $190 million.	Intact	cash falls below $190 million over next 4 quarters	Cash and cash equivalents: $239M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: maintain cash above $190 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source date unavailable239,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_balance_sheet. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management eliminated dividends starting 2026, redeploying capital to repurchases and debt reduction. In 2026-Q2, repurchased 1.3 million shares for $12M. Dividend payments ceased from $32M in 2025-Q4, showing delivering on capital allocation shift. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Deliver adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.50 in 2026	A primary condition in Dentsply Sirona's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.40 per share.	Intact	adjusted EPS falls below $1.40 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently maintains 2026 net sales guidance between $3.5B and $3.6B and adjusted EPS guidance between $1.40 and $1.50. Actual quarterly revenues show slight decline but management holds outlook steady, indicating a stable but cautious trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve 2026 revenue of $3.5B to $3.6B	A primary condition in Dentsply Sirona's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.5 billion.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $3.5 billion in FY26	Revenue: $898M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026898,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0476e1c3-2d10-4dd8-8293-c217d04cb4ee. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue declined from $961M in 2025-Q4 to $898M in 2026-Q2, while net income improved from a loss of $10M in 2026-Q1 to a gain of $37M in 2026-Q2. Management emphasizes progress on distributor relationships, sales realignment, and reinvestment, indicating delivering momentum but with revenue pressure. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.49

$1.55 → $1.49 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.61B

$3.66B → $3.61B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.55	$3,659,600,830	18 / 17
2026-07-25	$1.55	$3,659,600,830	18 / 17
2026-07-26	$1.55	$3,659,600,830	18 / 17
2026-07-27	$1.55	$3,659,600,830	18 / 17
2026-07-28	$1.55	$3,659,600,830	18 / 17
2026-07-29	$1.55	$3,657,324,611	12 / 14
2026-07-30	$1.55	$3,657,539,450	18 / 17
2026-07-31	$1.55	$3,657,539,450	18 / 17
2026-08-01	$1.55	$3,654,977,740	12 / 14
2026-08-02	$1.55	$3,657,539,450	18 / 17
2026-08-03	$1.55	$3,657,539,450	18 / 17
2026-08-04	$1.55	$3,657,539,450	18 / 17
2026-08-05	$1.55	$3,658,580,620	18 / 17
2026-08-06	$1.55	$3,654,977,740	12 / 14
2026-08-08	$1.55	$3,656,185,347	12 / 14
2026-08-09	$1.53	$3,643,993,070	18 / 15
2026-08-10	$1.55	$3,656,185,347	12 / 14
2026-08-12	$1.52	$3,634,254,060	18 / 17
2026-08-13	$1.52	$3,634,254,060	18 / 17
2026-08-14	$1.55	$3,656,185,347	12 / 14
2026-08-15	$1.55	$3,656,185,347	12 / 14
2026-08-16	$1.55	$3,656,185,347	12 / 14
2026-08-17	$1.55	$3,656,185,347	12 / 14
2026-08-18	$1.55	$3,656,185,347	12 / 14
2026-08-19	$1.55	$3,656,185,347	12 / 14
2026-08-20	$1.53	$3,634,670,970	12 / 14
2026-08-21	$1.53	$3,634,670,970	12 / 14
2026-08-22	$1.53	$3,634,670,970	12 / 14
2026-08-23	$1.52	$3,634,670,970	12 / 14
2026-08-24	$1.52	$3,634,670,970	12 / 14
2026-08-25	$1.52	$3,634,670,970	12 / 14
2026-08-26	$1.52	$3,634,670,970	12 / 14
2026-08-27	$1.52	$3,634,670,970	12 / 14
2026-08-28	$1.52	$3,634,670,970	12 / 14
2026-08-29	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-08-30	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-08-31	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-01	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-02	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-03	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-04	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-05	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-06	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-07	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-08	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-09	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-10	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-11	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-12	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-13	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-14	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-15	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-16	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-17	$1.52	$3,634,671,989	12 / 14
2026-09-18	$1.51	$3,627,984,489	12 / 14
2026-09-19	$1.51	$3,627,984,489	12 / 14
2026-09-20	$1.51	$3,627,984,489	12 / 14
2026-09-21	$1.51	$3,627,984,489	12 / 14
2026-09-22	$1.51	$3,627,984,489	12 / 14
2026-09-23	$1.51	$3,627,984,489	12 / 14
2026-09-24	$1.51	$3,627,984,489	12 / 14
2026-09-25	$1.51	$3,627,984,489	12 / 14
2026-09-26	$1.51	$3,627,984,489	12 / 14
2026-09-27	$1.51	$3,627,984,489	12 / 14
2026-09-28	$1.51	$3,627,984,489	12 / 14
2026-09-29	$1.51	$3,627,603,992	12 / 13
2026-09-30	$1.51	$3,627,603,992	12 / 13
2026-10-01	$1.51	$3,627,603,992	12 / 13
2026-10-02	$1.51	$3,627,603,992	12 / 13
2026-10-03	$1.51	$3,627,603,992	12 / 13
2026-10-04	$1.51	$3,627,603,992	12 / 13
2026-10-05	$1.51	$3,627,603,992	12 / 13
2026-10-06	$1.51	$3,627,603,992	12 / 13
2026-10-07	$1.50	$3,619,317,325	12 / 13
2026-10-08	$1.50	$3,619,317,325	12 / 13
2026-10-09	$1.50	$3,619,116,497	12 / 13
2026-10-10	$1.50	$3,619,116,497	12 / 13
2026-10-11	$1.50	$3,617,209,830	12 / 13
2026-10-12	$1.50	$3,617,209,830	12 / 13
2026-10-13	$1.50	$3,617,209,830	12 / 13
2026-10-14	$1.50	$3,617,209,830	12 / 13
2026-10-15	$1.50	$3,617,436,497	12 / 13
2026-10-16	$1.50	$3,616,169,830	12 / 13
2026-10-17	$1.50	$3,616,169,830	12 / 13
2026-10-18	$1.50	$3,616,169,830	12 / 13
2026-10-19	$1.50	$3,616,169,830	12 / 13
2026-10-20	$1.50	$3,616,169,830	12 / 13
2026-10-21	$1.50	$3,616,169,830	12 / 13
2026-10-22	$1.50	$3,616,169,830	12 / 13
2026-10-23	$1.49	$3,613,916,497	12 / 13
2026-10-24	$1.49	$3,613,916,497	12 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	12	2
2026-06-01	4	11	2
2026-07-01	4	13	2
2026-08-01	4	13	2
2026-09-01	4	12	2
2026-10-01	4	12	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 22

$12.00New observation · no comparable prior

Leerink PartnersOct 14

$10.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 9 · prior Jul 29

$14.00 → $12.00-14.3%

$0$7.70$15.40

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve liquidity and manage cash effectivelyCash and cash equivalents: $239M
Deliver adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.50 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve 2026 revenue of $3.5B to $3.6BRevenue: $898M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dentsply Sirona outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a recovery and execution story, not a steady compounder. The multi-year view is intact, with recent financial performance strong relative to peers, but management execution remains volatile and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Dentsply Sirona

XRAY is described as cheap versus peers, while the model shows an expectations gap below its benchmark. The valuation signal has low confidence, and pricing is tagged as justified with no fragility flags, so the evidence does not point to a clear mismatch between expectations and fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue pressure remains: quarterly revenue fell from $961 million in 2025-Q4 to $898 million in 2026-Q2, even as net income improved to $37 million from a loss in 2026-Q1. Management has reaffirmed its 2026 sales and adjusted EPS outlook, but the return-to-growth plan is making mixed progress, and earnings surprises have become less consistent.

What Dentsply Sirona hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on the return-to-growth plan restoring sales momentum while management maintains its 2026 outlook. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add risk; continued strength and higher guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.