Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS)

NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$130.40-0.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Advanced Drainage Systems’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.42 → 7.39 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	782.76M
EPS	—	1.152
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$3.35B–$3.55B	3.43B
EPS	—	6.245
Capital expenditure	About $200M	—
EBITDA	$1B–$1.05Bnon-GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.67B
EPS	—	7.393

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures near $200 million annually	Capital spending is steady near $200 million.	Intact	Capital expenditures fall below $150 million or rise above $250 million in 2027	Capital expenditures: $57.151M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$200 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202657,151,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance was approximately $250 million for fiscal 2026 and adjusted to approximately $200 million for fiscal 2027. Management maintains disciplined capital spending focused on safety, capacity, and productivity, showing consistent guidance with a slight reduction reflecting current priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Dividend at least $0.20 per share and $155M returned to shareholders	The company raised its dividend to $0.20 per share.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.20 or capital return drops below $155M in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.18 in 2026-Q1 to $0.20 in 2026-Q2, and the company repurchased $228.5 million of common stock in 2026-Q2. Management has maintained disciplined capital allocation with consistent dividend increases and share repurchases, delivering on stated commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 5% annually	A primary condition in Advanced Drainage Systems's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in fiscal 2026	Revenue growth: 20.63% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202620.633345 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6f6c0641-b49b-4bcf-a5db-1de23201dbea. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net sales grew from $829.9 million in 2025-Q2 to $1.0 billion in 2026-Q2 (+20.6%), and fiscal 2026 net sales increased 5.0% to $3.05 billion. Management consistently emphasizes acquisitions and product innovation as growth drivers, and the trajectory is delivering with strong revenue growth and integration of acquisitions like NDS. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$7.39

$7.38 → $7.39 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$3.67B

$3.67B → $3.67B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.38	$3,665,939,506	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$7.37	$3,665,896,930	8 / 9
2026-07-26	$7.37	$3,665,896,930	8 / 9
2026-07-27	$7.37	$3,665,896,930	8 / 9
2026-07-28	$7.38	$3,665,939,506	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$7.37	$3,665,896,930	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$7.38	$3,665,939,506	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$7.38	$3,665,939,506	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$7.38	$3,665,939,506	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$7.38	$3,665,939,506	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$7.38	$3,665,939,506	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$7.38	$3,665,939,506	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$7.38	$3,665,939,506	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$7.36	$3,665,167,230	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$7.38	$3,665,205,555	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$7.38	$3,665,205,555	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$7.38	$3,665,205,555	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$7.53	$3,680,044,200	9 / 10
2026-08-13	$7.38	$3,665,205,555	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$7.38	$3,665,205,555	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$7.38	$3,665,205,555	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$7.38	$3,665,205,555	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$7.38	$3,665,205,555	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$7.38	$3,665,205,555	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$7.38	$3,665,205,555	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$7.53	$3,680,419,041	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$7.53	$3,680,419,041	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$7.53	$3,680,419,041	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$7.53	$3,680,419,041	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$7.53	$3,680,419,041	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$7.43	$3,681,562,765	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$7.42	$3,676,368,472	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$7.41	$3,672,319,041	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$7.41	$3,672,319,041	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$7.41	$3,672,319,041	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$7.39	$3,666,319,041	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$7.39	$3,666,319,041	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$7.39	$3,666,279,041	7 / 7
2026-10-12	$7.39	$3,666,279,041	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$7.39	$3,666,279,041	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$7.39	$3,666,279,041	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$7.39	$3,666,279,041	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$7.39	$3,666,279,041	7 / 7
2026-10-17	$7.39	$3,666,279,041	7 / 7
2026-10-18	$7.39	$3,666,279,041	7 / 7
2026-10-19	$7.39	$3,666,279,041	7 / 7
2026-10-20	$7.39	$3,666,279,041	7 / 7
2026-10-21	$7.39	$3,666,279,041	7 / 7
2026-10-22	$7.39	$3,666,319,041	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$7.39	$3,666,319,041	7 / 7
2026-10-24	$7.39	$3,666,319,041	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	1
2026-06-01	10	0
2026-07-01	10	0
2026-08-01	12	0
2026-09-01	12	0
2026-10-01	12	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

OppenheimerOct 9 · prior May 26

$190.00 → $185.00-2.6%

D.A. DavidsonOct 6

$190.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$104.50$209.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures near $200 million annuallyCapital expenditures: $57.151M
Dividend at least $0.20 per share and $155M returned to shareholdersDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows at least 5% annuallyRevenue growth: 20.63%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Advanced Drainage Systems outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

WMS is positioned as a durable compounder with a focus on growth through acquisitions and product innovation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent revenue growth and disciplined capital allocation.

What's priced into Advanced Drainage Systems

The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating that the market has low expectations for future performance. The current pricing reflects a justified valuation without significant fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, supported by strong revenue growth and disciplined management priorities. However, there is moderate risk due to the potential for guidance cuts and the mixed status of capital expenditure priorities.

What Advanced Drainage Systems hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like JCI, MAS, and CSL. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for WMS, while any negative guidance from them could pose risks.