Williams Companies (WMB)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-10-15

$71.28+2.98%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Williams Companies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.57 → 2.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Annual dividend grows at least 5% to $2.10 per share	A supporting condition in Williams Companies's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% annual dividend growth to $2.10.	Intact	Dividend growth stalls or falls below 3% next year	Dividend per share: $0.53 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% annual dividend growth to $2.10. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 3, 20260.525 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bf054a6d-9b43-48eb-86a8-b1d2bd0909c9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 7 quarters. Management has consistently increased dividends, with a 5% increase to $2.10 annualized for 2026 from $2.00 in 2025. Dividend coverage ratios remain above 2x AFFO, supporting sustainable dividend growth. This demonstrates delivering on the commitment to maintain and grow dividends. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Adjusted EBITDA from pipeline projects grows at least 13% YoY	Williams grows pipeline projects, boosting adjusted EBITDA 13% yearly.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 7% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Management consistently reported placing multiple pipeline transmission projects into service and advancing others, including Transco's Southeast Supply Enhancement (~1.6 Bcf/d) and a total of 7.1 Bcf/d of projects in execution as of 2025-Q4. This aligns with revenue growth in transmission segments and increased Adjusted EBITDA, demonstrating delivering progress on expanding pipeline capacity. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Capital investment in power innovation reaches at least $1.64 billion	It invests $1.64 billion in power innovation.	Intact	Capital investment in power innovation drops below $1 billion next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.62

$2.52 → $2.62 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.34B

$13.43B → $14.34B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.52	$13,428,794,376	11 / 7
2026-07-25	$2.52	$13,428,794,376	11 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.57	$13,651,157,530	13 / 9
2026-07-27	$2.52	$13,434,143,777	11 / 7
2026-07-28	$2.52	$13,434,143,777	11 / 7
2026-07-29	$2.56	$13,651,157,080	12 / 9
2026-07-30	$2.56	$13,651,157,080	12 / 9
2026-07-31	$2.56	$13,651,157,080	12 / 9
2026-08-01	$2.52	$13,434,143,777	11 / 7
2026-08-02	$2.52	$13,434,143,777	11 / 7
2026-08-03	$2.52	$13,434,143,777	11 / 7
2026-08-04	$2.58	$13,663,268,190	11 / 9
2026-08-05	$2.58	$13,663,268,190	11 / 9
2026-08-06	$2.53	$13,663,268,190	9 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.53	$13,486,895,970	9 / 7
2026-08-09	$2.53	$13,486,895,970	9 / 7
2026-08-10	$2.53	$13,486,895,970	9 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$13,880,348,150	4 / 5
2026-08-13	$2.53	$13,486,895,970	9 / 7
2026-08-14	$2.53	$13,486,895,970	9 / 7
2026-08-15	$2.53	$13,486,895,970	9 / 7
2026-08-16	$2.53	$13,486,895,970	7 / 6
2026-08-17	$2.53	$13,486,895,970	7 / 6
2026-08-18	$2.53	$13,486,895,970	9 / 6
2026-08-19	$2.53	$13,486,895,970	9 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.60	$14,008,133,106	7 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-08-22	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-08-23	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-08-24	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-08-25	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-08-26	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-08-27	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-08-28	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-08-29	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-08-30	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-08-31	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-09-01	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-09-02	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-09-03	$2.59	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-09-04	$2.58	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-09-05	$2.58	$14,008,133,106	8 / 5
2026-09-06	$2.59	$14,146,876,894	8 / 5
2026-09-07	$2.59	$14,236,736,506	8 / 5
2026-09-08	$2.59	$14,236,736,506	8 / 5
2026-09-09	$2.59	$14,236,736,506	8 / 5
2026-09-10	$2.57	$14,236,736,506	8 / 5
2026-09-11	$2.57	$14,236,736,506	9 / 5
2026-09-12	$2.57	$14,236,736,506	9 / 5
2026-09-13	$2.57	$14,236,736,506	9 / 5
2026-09-14	$2.57	$14,236,736,506	9 / 5
2026-09-15	$2.57	$14,188,765,783	9 / 5
2026-09-16	$2.57	$14,188,765,783	10 / 6
2026-09-17	$2.57	$14,188,765,783	10 / 6
2026-09-18	$2.57	$14,188,765,783	10 / 6
2026-09-19	$2.57	$14,188,765,783	10 / 6
2026-09-20	$2.57	$14,188,765,783	10 / 6
2026-09-21	$2.57	$14,188,765,783	10 / 6
2026-09-22	$2.57	$14,188,765,783	10 / 6
2026-09-23	$2.57	$14,188,765,783	10 / 6
2026-09-24	$2.57	$14,188,765,783	10 / 6
2026-09-25	$2.56	$14,170,489,205	11 / 6
2026-09-26	$2.56	$14,170,489,205	11 / 6
2026-09-27	$2.56	$14,170,489,205	11 / 6
2026-09-28	$2.56	$14,170,489,205	11 / 6
2026-09-29	$2.56	$14,170,489,205	11 / 6
2026-09-30	$2.56	$14,170,489,205	11 / 6
2026-10-01	$2.56	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-02	$2.61	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-03	$2.61	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-04	$2.61	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-05	$2.61	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-06	$2.61	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-07	$2.61	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-08	$2.61	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-09	$2.61	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-10	$2.61	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-11	$2.61	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-12	$2.61	$14,163,612,346	11 / 6
2026-10-13	$2.62	$14,274,100,846	11 / 7
2026-10-14	$2.62	$14,322,920,346	12 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.62	$14,336,973,679	12 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	21	4	1
2026-06-01	21	4	1
2026-07-01	20	3	1
2026-08-01	20	4	0
2026-09-01	22	3	0
2026-10-01	23	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 13

$85.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 1 · prior Jul 8

$75.00 → $82.00+9.3%

Williams TradingSep 22 · prior Aug 26

$103.00 → $92.00-10.7%

$0$56.65$113.30

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Annual dividend grows at least 5% to $2.10 per shareDividend per share: $0.53 per share
Adjusted EBITDA from pipeline projects grows at least 13% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Capital investment in power innovation reaches at least $1.64 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Williams Companies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

WMB represents a durable compounder in the energy sector. The current thesis state is intact, with management focused on expanding pipeline capacity and maintaining dividend growth, though execution quality is neutral.

What's priced into Williams Companies

The market currently prices WMB at a premium compared to peers, indicating high expectations for future performance. This premium appears unjustified given the company's recent execution quality and the overall sector's turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain stable in the near term, supported by ongoing management initiatives. However, there is a moderate risk of earnings misses, particularly given the company's recent performance history.

What Williams Companies hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate and the performance of sector bellwethers. A reversal in guidance could significantly impact credibility and investor sentiment.