Waste Management (WM)

NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$226.86+1.19%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Waste Management’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.06 → 9.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted operating EBITDA margin expands above 30.8%	A primary condition in Waste Management's published investment case. The stated target is >=30.8%.	Improving	Adjusted operating EBITDA margin falls below 30.8% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Adjusted operating EBITDA margin grew from about 29.7% in 2024-Q4 to 31.2% in 2026-Q2, with full-year 2026 guidance at 31.0%-31.2%. Management consistently emphasized margin expansion driven by disciplined pricing and cost control, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow grows about 29.4% to $3.75-$3.85 billion	Free cash flow rises nearly 30% to about $3.8 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow growth falls below 29.4% in FY26	Free cash flow: $1.096B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=29.4% growth. Target and observation units differ. Source published Jul 29, 20261,096,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Healthcare Solutions operating EBITDA grows and synergies reach $300 million by 2027	Healthcare Solutions integration adds margin and revenue growth.	Intact	Healthcare Solutions EBITDA growth falls below 18% or synergies miss $300 million by 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 7 quarters. Healthcare Solutions operating EBITDA grew from $95 million in 2025-Q1 to $110 million in 2025-Q2, with margin improving and integration completed by 2025-Q4. Management targets $250 million in synergies by 2027. The trajectory shows steady progress and synergy capture. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue grows about 5.2% in FY26	Waste Management grows revenue about 5% a year.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 5.2% in FY26	Revenue: $6.684B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.2% YoY growth. Target and observation units differ. Source published Jul 29, 20266,684,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b6443504-5e2e-4f59-8c32-09ccf7bd8633. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Revenue grew from $22.063 billion in 2024 to $6.684 billion in 2026-Q2 alone, with full-year 2026 guidance at $26.275-$26.475 billion. Management's emphasis on disciplined pricing and volume growth is supported by consistent revenue increases, indicating delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.03

$9.17 → $9.03 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$27.83B

$27.99B → $27.83B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.17	$27,994,583,286	18 / 20
2026-07-25	$9.21	$28,011,970,130	28 / 25
2026-07-26	$9.21	$28,011,970,130	28 / 25
2026-07-27	$9.17	$27,994,583,286	18 / 20
2026-07-28	$9.17	$27,994,583,286	18 / 20
2026-07-29	$9.21	$28,011,970,130	28 / 25
2026-07-30	$9.21	$28,011,970,130	28 / 25
2026-07-31	$9.09	$27,811,929,052	17 / 20
2026-08-01	$9.09	$27,811,929,052	17 / 20
2026-08-02	$9.09	$27,805,129,052	17 / 20
2026-08-03	$9.09	$27,805,129,052	17 / 20
2026-08-04	$9.09	$27,805,129,052	17 / 20
2026-08-05	$9.14	$27,831,504,590	28 / 26
2026-08-06	$9.09	$27,805,129,052	17 / 20
2026-08-08	$9.08	$27,791,818,032	18 / 20
2026-08-09	$9.08	$27,791,818,032	18 / 20
2026-08-10	$9.08	$27,791,818,032	18 / 20
2026-08-12	$9.14	$27,828,345,900	28 / 26
2026-08-13	$9.08	$27,791,818,032	18 / 20
2026-08-14	$9.08	$27,791,818,032	18 / 20
2026-08-15	$9.08	$27,791,818,032	18 / 20
2026-08-16	$9.08	$27,791,818,032	18 / 20
2026-08-17	$9.08	$27,791,818,032	18 / 20
2026-08-18	$9.08	$27,791,818,032	18 / 20
2026-08-19	$9.08	$27,791,818,032	18 / 20
2026-08-20	$9.06	$27,784,997,650	18 / 20
2026-08-21	$9.06	$27,785,004,546	18 / 20
2026-08-22	$9.06	$27,784,874,111	18 / 20
2026-08-23	$9.06	$27,784,874,111	18 / 20
2026-08-24	$9.06	$27,784,874,111	18 / 20
2026-08-25	$9.06	$27,784,874,111	18 / 20
2026-08-26	$9.06	$27,784,874,111	18 / 20
2026-08-27	$9.06	$27,784,874,111	18 / 20
2026-08-28	$9.06	$27,784,874,111	18 / 20
2026-08-29	$9.06	$27,784,884,472	18 / 20
2026-08-30	$9.06	$27,784,884,472	18 / 20
2026-08-31	$9.06	$27,784,884,472	18 / 20
2026-09-01	$9.06	$27,784,884,472	18 / 20
2026-09-02	$9.06	$27,784,884,472	18 / 20
2026-09-03	$9.06	$27,784,884,472	18 / 20
2026-09-04	$9.06	$27,784,884,472	18 / 20
2026-09-05	$9.06	$27,784,884,472	18 / 20
2026-09-06	$9.06	$27,784,884,472	18 / 20
2026-09-07	$9.06	$27,784,884,472	18 / 20
2026-09-08	$9.06	$27,784,890,094	18 / 20
2026-09-09	$9.06	$27,784,890,094	18 / 20
2026-09-10	$9.06	$27,784,890,094	18 / 20
2026-09-11	$9.06	$27,784,890,094	18 / 20
2026-09-12	$9.06	$27,784,890,094	18 / 20
2026-09-13	$9.06	$27,784,890,094	18 / 20
2026-09-14	$9.06	$27,784,890,094	18 / 20
2026-09-15	$9.06	$27,784,890,094	18 / 20
2026-09-16	$9.07	$27,789,936,340	18 / 20
2026-09-17	$9.07	$27,789,936,340	18 / 20
2026-09-18	$9.07	$27,789,936,340	18 / 20
2026-09-19	$9.07	$27,789,936,340	18 / 20
2026-09-20	$9.07	$27,790,048,357	18 / 20
2026-09-21	$9.07	$27,790,048,357	18 / 20
2026-09-22	$9.07	$27,790,048,357	18 / 20
2026-09-23	$9.07	$27,790,048,357	18 / 20
2026-09-24	$9.07	$27,790,048,357	18 / 20
2026-09-25	$9.07	$27,790,048,357	18 / 20
2026-09-26	$9.07	$27,790,048,357	18 / 20
2026-09-27	$9.07	$27,790,048,357	18 / 20
2026-09-28	$9.07	$27,790,048,357	18 / 20
2026-09-29	$9.07	$27,790,048,357	18 / 20
2026-09-30	$9.07	$27,790,048,357	18 / 20
2026-10-01	$9.07	$27,795,965,023	18 / 20
2026-10-02	$9.07	$27,795,965,023	18 / 20
2026-10-03	$9.06	$27,799,252,565	18 / 20
2026-10-04	$9.06	$27,799,252,565	18 / 20
2026-10-05	$9.06	$27,799,252,565	18 / 20
2026-10-06	$9.06	$27,799,252,565	18 / 20
2026-10-07	$9.06	$27,799,252,565	18 / 20
2026-10-08	$9.05	$27,817,627,565	18 / 20
2026-10-09	$9.04	$27,810,726,417	18 / 20
2026-10-10	$9.04	$27,810,726,417	18 / 20
2026-10-11	$9.03	$27,817,804,003	18 / 20
2026-10-12	$9.03	$27,817,804,003	18 / 20
2026-10-13	$9.03	$27,817,804,003	18 / 20
2026-10-14	$9.03	$27,818,548,238	18 / 20
2026-10-15	$9.03	$27,827,595,414	18 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	9	0
2026-06-01	19	9	0
2026-07-01	19	9	1
2026-08-01	19	9	0
2026-09-01	19	9	0
2026-10-01	19	9	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

CIBCOct 8 · prior Jul 7

$244.00 → $225.00-7.8%

$0$134.20$268.40

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted operating EBITDA margin expands above 30.8%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow grows about 29.4% to $3.75-$3.85 billionFree cash flow: $1.096B
Healthcare Solutions operating EBITDA grows and synergies reach $300 million by 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows about 5.2% in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Waste Management outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.

What's priced into Waste Management

The market seems to have a neutral valuation stance, with expectations slightly above historical averages. There is a premium compared to peers, indicating that investors expect continued solid performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, driven by management's focus on expanding margins and increasing free cash flow. The low probability of missing earnings supports this positive trajectory, although the overall sector backdrop presents some risk.

What Waste Management hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like RSG, CLH, and CWST. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for WM, while any negative guidance from them could pose risks.