World Kinect Corporation (WKC)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.54+0.11%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge World Kinect Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	11.8B
EPS	—	0.6
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	47.18B
EPS	—	3.6
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	43.41B
EPS	—	2.56

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS near $2.75 in 2026	The company raised its EPS guidance to about $2.75 for 2026, showing confidence in earnings growth.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $2.65 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain gross profit growth above $270 million	Operational improvements boosted gross profit by $40.8 million year over year.	Intact	gross profit falls below $230 million	Gross profit: $365.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $270 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 2026365,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d16af49b-048a-412d-bdcc-c9f787e26bb5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross profit increased from $235M in 2025-Q4 to $365M in 2026-Q2, with Aviation segment gross profit up 51% year-over-year in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently emphasized growing gross profit through portfolio transformation and market opportunities, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net income improves to positive territory	World Kinect is improving profit with net income rising from a loss of $21.1 million in 2025-Q1 to a gain of $26.2 million in 2026-Q1.	Intact	net income falls below $0 in any quarter	Net income: $48.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income > $26 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 202648,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d16af49b-048a-412d-bdcc-c9f787e26bb5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net income improved significantly from a loss of $280M in 2025-Q4 to a gain of $48M in 2026-Q2. Management has reiterated focus on improving profitability, and the financials show a clear positive trajectory delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to positive levels	A supporting condition in World Kinect Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is operating income > $50 million.	Intact	operating income falls below $0	Operating income: $96.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income > $50 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 202696,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d16af49b-048a-412d-bdcc-c9f787e26bb5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income improved from a loss of $276M in 2025-Q4 to a gain of $96M in 2026-Q2, with adjusted operating margin rising from 21% to 33%. Management has emphasized cost discipline and operational efficiency, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	2
2026-06-01	1	2
2026-07-01	1	2
2026-08-01	1	2
2026-09-01	1	2
2026-10-01	1	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS near $2.75 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain gross profit growth above $270 millionGross profit: $365.1M
Net income improves to positive territoryNet income: $48.4M
Operating income improves to positive levelsOperating income: $96.1M

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

World Kinect Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a recovery and execution story, not yet a proven durable compounder. Management is stable and has made progress on profit goals, while recent financial performance remains weak versus its industry cohort.

What's priced into World Kinect Corporation

WKC is described as cheap versus peers, but the model also shows a 56% premium versus peers, so the valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, and the evidence rates what is priced in as justified, with low fragility rather than a broadly stretched setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have improved: gross profit and operating income rose from late 2025 levels, and net income moved from a loss to a gain by 2026-Q2. Management has stayed focused on profitability, but recent performance remains weak relative to peers and earnings surprises have been erratic; the stated near-term miss risk is low.

What World Kinect Corporation hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining gains in gross profit, operating income, and net income. A reversal of the recently raised guidance would damage credibility, while continued strength from energy-sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.