WEC Energy Group (WEC)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-15

$108.71+2.52%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge WEC Energy Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.00 → 6.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend increase to at least $3.81 per share	A supporting condition in WEC Energy Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.81 dividend per share.	Intact	Dividend does not increase or falls below $3.81	Dividend per share: $0.95 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.81 dividend per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20260.9525 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2db0d473-0e42-411f-af05-43cf597ef798. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividends per share increased from $0.8925 in 2025-Q3 to $0.9525 in 2026-Q2, reflecting a 6.7% raise and marking the 23rd consecutive year of dividend growth. This consistent increase matches management's stated commitment to rewarding shareholders. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS of $5.51 to $5.61 in 2026	A primary condition in WEC Energy Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.51 EPS.	Intact	EPS falls below $5.51 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.91 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.51 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20260.91 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance range of $5.51 to $5.61 per share across 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2. This consistent reaffirmation aligns with the reported net income growth from $969.6M in first half 2025 to $1.1B in first half 2026, indicating management is delivering on this guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth near 5% annually	A supporting condition in WEC Energy Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= 4.8% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 4.8% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.00

$6.01 → $6.00 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$10.67B

$10.83B → $10.67B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.01	$10,832,044,100	9 / 15
2026-07-25	$6.01	$10,827,044,100	8 / 15
2026-07-26	$6.01	$10,827,044,100	8 / 15
2026-07-27	$6.01	$10,827,044,100	8 / 15
2026-07-28	$6.00	$10,645,118,326	8 / 11
2026-07-29	$6.00	$10,645,118,326	8 / 11
2026-07-30	$6.00	$10,645,667,169	8 / 11
2026-07-31	$6.01	$10,827,044,100	9 / 15
2026-08-01	$6.00	$10,647,938,676	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$6.01	$10,829,142,760	9 / 15
2026-08-03	$6.01	$10,829,142,760	9 / 15
2026-08-04	$6.00	$10,647,938,676	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$6.00	$10,647,938,676	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$6.00	$10,647,938,676	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$6.00	$10,680,498,820	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$6.00	$10,680,498,820	9 / 11
2026-08-10	$6.01	$10,805,986,560	9 / 15
2026-08-12	$6.00	$10,680,498,820	9 / 11
2026-08-13	$6.01	$10,805,986,560	9 / 15
2026-08-14	$6.00	$10,680,498,820	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$6.00	$10,680,498,820	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$6.00	$10,680,498,820	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$6.00	$10,680,498,820	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$6.00	$10,680,498,820	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$6.00	$10,680,498,820	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$6.00	$10,675,633,962	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$6.00	$10,675,633,962	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$6.00	$10,675,633,962	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$6.00	$10,675,633,962	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$6.00	$10,675,633,962	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$6.00	$10,675,205,390	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$6.00	$10,675,227,973	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$6.00	$10,675,227,973	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$6.00	$10,675,227,973	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$6.00	$10,675,227,973	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$6.00	$10,675,227,973	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$6.00	$10,675,227,973	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$6.00	$10,675,227,973	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$6.00	$10,675,205,387	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$6.00	$10,674,033,959	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$6.00	$10,674,605,387	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$6.00	$10,674,605,387	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	11	1
2026-06-01	8	11	1
2026-07-01	8	11	1
2026-08-01	9	11	1
2026-09-01	8	10	1
2026-10-01	8	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

KeyBancOct 13

$111.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$61.05$122.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend increase to at least $3.81 per shareDividend per share: $0.95 per share
EPS of $5.51 to $5.61 in 2026Diluted EPS: $0.91 per share
Revenue growth near 5% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

WEC Energy Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

WEC represents a stable utility investment with a focus on consistent earnings and dividend growth. The current thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to its guidance.

What's priced into WEC Energy Group

The market currently prices WEC at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that investors expect continued strong performance. However, this premium is stretched given the fragile earnings quality, suggesting that expectations may be high relative to actual execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its 2026 EPS guidance and has successfully increased dividends for 23 consecutive years. While recent financial performance has been strong, the low probability of missing guidance is notable, especially given the recent history of misses in the industry.

What WEC Energy Group hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which could benefit utilities like WEC. Additionally, maintaining guidance and observing the performance of sector peers will be crucial for sustaining momentum.