Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-10-15

$30.95+0.03%

Close 2026-10-05 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Warner Bros. Discovery’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Generate at least $3 billion free cash flow	The company targets $3 billion free cash flow in 2026.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $2 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $572M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3000 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026572,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Exceed 150 million global subscribers	Discovery aims for over 150 million global subscribers by 2026.	Intact	subscriber count falls below 140 million by end of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Global streaming subscribers increased from 122.3 million in 2026-Q1 to 128.0 million in 2025-Q3, with management guidance confirming the target to surpass 150 million by end of 2026. The trajectory shows steady subscriber growth delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Complete merger with Paramount Skydance	A supporting condition in Warner Bros. Discovery's published investment case. The stated target is merger closed by end of 2026.	Intact	merger blocked or delayed beyond 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.00

$-0.06 → $0.00 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$37.14B

$37.84B → $37.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.06	$37,838,418,665	11 / 15
2026-07-25	$0.05	$37,989,324,290	13 / 18
2026-07-26	$0.05	$37,989,324,290	13 / 18
2026-07-27	$-0.06	$37,837,536,312	11 / 14
2026-07-28	$0.05	$37,989,324,290	13 / 18
2026-07-29	$0.04	$37,975,602,070	13 / 18
2026-07-30	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	11 / 14
2026-07-31	$0.04	$37,975,579,840	13 / 18
2026-08-01	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	11 / 14
2026-08-02	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	11 / 14
2026-08-03	$0.04	$37,975,579,840	13 / 18
2026-08-04	$0.04	$37,975,579,840	13 / 18
2026-08-05	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	11 / 14
2026-08-06	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	11 / 14
2026-08-08	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	12 / 15
2026-08-09	$-0.05	$37,646,692,760	12 / 20
2026-08-10	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	12 / 15
2026-08-12	$-0.06	$37,537,368,380	14 / 20
2026-08-13	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	12 / 15
2026-08-14	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	12 / 15
2026-08-15	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	12 / 15
2026-08-16	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	12 / 15
2026-08-17	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	12 / 15
2026-08-18	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	12 / 15
2026-08-19	$-0.06	$37,822,983,926	11 / 15
2026-08-20	$0.01	$37,298,691,940	11 / 15
2026-08-21	$0.01	$37,298,691,940	11 / 15
2026-08-22	$0.01	$37,298,691,940	11 / 15
2026-08-23	$0.01	$37,298,691,940	11 / 15
2026-08-24	$0.01	$37,298,691,940	11 / 15
2026-08-25	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	11 / 15
2026-08-26	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	11 / 16
2026-08-27	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	11 / 16
2026-08-28	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	11 / 16
2026-08-29	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	12 / 16
2026-08-30	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	12 / 16
2026-08-31	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	12 / 16
2026-09-01	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	12 / 16
2026-09-02	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	12 / 16
2026-09-03	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	12 / 16
2026-09-04	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	12 / 16
2026-09-05	$0.01	$37,236,113,702	12 / 16
2026-09-06	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-07	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-08	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-09	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-10	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-11	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-12	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-13	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-14	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-15	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-16	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-17	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-18	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-19	$-0.01	$37,142,963,183	12 / 16
2026-09-20	$0.00	$37,142,962,039	12 / 16
2026-09-21	$0.00	$37,142,962,039	12 / 16
2026-09-22	$0.00	$37,142,962,039	12 / 16
2026-09-23	$0.00	$37,142,959,894	11 / 16
2026-09-24	$0.00	$37,142,959,894	11 / 16
2026-09-25	$0.00	$37,142,959,894	12 / 16
2026-09-26	$0.00	$37,142,959,894	12 / 16
2026-09-27	$0.00	$37,142,959,894	12 / 16
2026-09-28	$0.00	$37,142,959,894	12 / 16
2026-09-29	$0.00	$37,142,959,894	12 / 16
2026-09-30	$0.00	$37,142,959,894	12 / 16
2026-10-01	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	11 / 16
2026-10-02	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	12 / 16
2026-10-03	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	12 / 16
2026-10-04	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	12 / 16
2026-10-05	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	12 / 16
2026-10-06	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	12 / 16
2026-10-07	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	12 / 15
2026-10-08	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	10 / 13
2026-10-09	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	10 / 13
2026-10-10	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	10 / 13
2026-10-11	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	10 / 13
2026-10-12	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	10 / 13
2026-10-13	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	10 / 13
2026-10-14	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	10 / 13
2026-10-15	$0.00	$37,142,935,517	10 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	17	3
2026-06-01	3	16	3
2026-07-01	3	16	1
2026-08-01	3	16	1
2026-09-01	3	16	2
2026-10-01	2	16	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleySep 22

$31.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$17.05$34.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Generate at least $3 billion free cash flowFree cash flow: $572M
Exceed 150 million global subscribersDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Complete merger with Paramount SkydanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Warner Bros. Discovery outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving subscriber numbers and operational cash flow. The current thesis state is cautious, as management faces challenges in execution and market conditions.

What's priced into Warner Bros. Discovery

The market appears to price in a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations of recovery and growth. However, the valuation is considered unjustified given the company's current loss-making status and recent performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may show mixed results in the near term. Subscriber growth is on track, but cash flow metrics have declined, indicating operational challenges that management needs to address.

What Warner Bros. Discovery hinges on

The thesis hinges on the successful completion of the merger with Paramount Skydance and the ability to enhance cash flow. Additionally, broader market conditions, such as potential interest rate cuts and performance of sector peers, will play a critical role.