Waystar Holding Corp (WAY)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$28.85-0.45%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Waystar Holding Corp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.88 → 1.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	328.86M
EPS	—	0.417
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.28B–$1.29B	1.29B
EPS	—	1.67
EBITDA	$535M–$545Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.42B
EPS	—	1.88

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations rises to about $85 million in Q1 2026	Cash from operations rose to $84.9M, supporting buybacks.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $70 million in next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $59.411M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $85 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202659,411,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management has emphasized increasing cash flow from operations in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operations fluctuated between $59.4M in 2026-Q2 and $84.9M in 2026-Q1, with $67M in 2025-Q4 and $82M in 2025-Q3. The cash flow shows mixed but generally solid generation supporting operations, consistent with management focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS reaches about $1.64 in FY26	A primary condition in Waystar Holding Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.64 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.50 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.21 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.64 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.21 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 04577347-ede1-4fa4-b970-7b230a0232af. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to about $80.5 million in Q1 2026	A supporting condition in Waystar Holding Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $80 million.	Intact	Operating income falls below $70 million in next 4 quarters	Operating income: $76.042M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $80 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202676,042,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 04577347-ede1-4fa4-b970-7b230a0232af. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $1.28 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Waystar Holding Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.279 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY26	Revenue: $319.674M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.279 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026319,674,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 04577347-ede1-4fa4-b970-7b230a0232af. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $256.4M in 2025-Q1 to $313.9M in 2026-Q1 (+22%), and from $271M in 2025-Q2 to $319.7M in 2026-Q2 (+18%). Fiscal year 2025 revenue was $1.099B, up 17% YoY. Management consistently emphasizes revenue growth driven by demand, platform expansion, and AI innovation, and the financials show delivering growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.88

$1.85 → $1.88 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.42B

$1.42B → $1.42B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.85	$1,420,810,661	14 / 17
2026-07-25	$1.85	$1,420,666,570	23 / 23
2026-07-26	$1.85	$1,420,723,664	14 / 17
2026-07-27	$1.85	$1,420,666,570	23 / 23
2026-07-28	$1.85	$1,420,666,570	23 / 23
2026-07-29	$1.85	$1,420,666,570	23 / 23
2026-07-30	$1.85	$1,420,681,060	23 / 23
2026-07-31	$1.87	$1,422,737,580	23 / 23
2026-08-01	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-02	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-03	$1.87	$1,423,202,320	22 / 22
2026-08-04	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-05	$1.88	$1,423,652,730	22 / 22
2026-08-06	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-08	$1.88	$1,423,652,730	22 / 22
2026-08-09	$1.88	$1,423,652,730	22 / 22
2026-08-10	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-12	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-13	$1.88	$1,423,652,730	22 / 22
2026-08-14	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-15	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-16	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-17	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-18	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-19	$1.87	$1,422,757,969	14 / 17
2026-08-20	$1.88	$1,423,477,087	14 / 17
2026-08-21	$1.88	$1,423,477,087	14 / 17
2026-08-22	$1.88	$1,423,477,087	14 / 17
2026-08-23	$1.88	$1,423,477,087	14 / 17
2026-08-24	$1.88	$1,423,477,087	14 / 17
2026-08-25	$1.88	$1,423,477,087	14 / 17
2026-08-26	$1.88	$1,423,477,087	14 / 17
2026-08-27	$1.88	$1,423,477,087	14 / 17
2026-08-28	$1.88	$1,423,477,087	14 / 17
2026-08-29	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-08-30	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-08-31	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-01	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-02	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-03	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-04	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-05	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-06	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-07	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-08	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-09	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-10	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-11	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-12	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-13	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-14	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-15	$1.88	$1,423,476,483	14 / 17
2026-09-16	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	14 / 17
2026-09-17	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-18	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-19	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-20	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-21	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-22	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-23	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-24	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-25	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-26	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-27	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-28	$1.88	$1,423,475,087	13 / 17
2026-09-29	$1.88	$1,423,596,209	13 / 17
2026-09-30	$1.88	$1,423,596,209	13 / 17
2026-10-01	$1.88	$1,423,596,209	13 / 17
2026-10-02	$1.88	$1,423,596,209	13 / 17
2026-10-03	$1.88	$1,423,596,209	13 / 17
2026-10-04	$1.88	$1,423,596,209	13 / 17
2026-10-05	$1.88	$1,423,596,209	13 / 17
2026-10-06	$1.88	$1,423,596,209	13 / 17
2026-10-07	$1.88	$1,423,578,027	13 / 17
2026-10-08	$1.88	$1,423,579,663	13 / 17
2026-10-09	$1.88	$1,423,579,663	13 / 17
2026-10-10	$1.88	$1,423,579,663	13 / 17
2026-10-11	$1.88	$1,423,579,663	13 / 17
2026-10-12	$1.88	$1,423,579,663	13 / 17
2026-10-13	$1.88	$1,423,579,663	13 / 17
2026-10-14	$1.88	$1,423,579,663	13 / 17
2026-10-15	$1.88	$1,423,579,663	13 / 17
2026-10-16	$1.88	$1,423,611,481	13 / 17
2026-10-17	$1.88	$1,423,611,481	13 / 17
2026-10-18	$1.88	$1,423,625,118	13 / 17
2026-10-19	$1.88	$1,423,625,118	13 / 17
2026-10-20	$1.88	$1,423,625,118	13 / 17
2026-10-21	$1.88	$1,423,625,118	13 / 17
2026-10-22	$1.88	$1,423,625,118	13 / 17
2026-10-23	$1.88	$1,423,625,118	13 / 17
2026-10-24	$1.88	$1,423,625,118	13 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	23	1
2026-06-01	23	1
2026-07-01	23	1
2026-08-01	23	1
2026-09-01	23	2
2026-10-01	21	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

KeyBancOct 16 · prior Jul 1

$30.00 → $35.00+16.7%

$0$19.25$38.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations rises to about $85 million in Q1 2026Cash from operations: $59.411M
EPS reaches about $1.64 in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.21 per share
Operating income improves to about $80.5 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $76.042M
Revenue reaches about $1.28 billion in FY26Revenue: $319.674M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Waystar Holding Corp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

WAY is a growth-oriented healthcare business with recent strong financial performance and robust earnings quality. Its multi-year view is intact, but elevated risk and a mixed history of quarterly results mean execution remains important.

What's priced into Waystar Holding Corp

The evidence describes WAY as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 0.74 premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap, so the valuation signals are mixed. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility and no fragility gates triggered.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s focus on revenue growth, profitability, and operating cash flow is on track: recent quarterly revenue grew year over year, and profitability improved while adjusted EBITDA margin stayed steady. Recent results include two earnings beats after a February miss, but the record of past misses and the possibility of a guidance reversal remain risks.

What Waystar Holding Corp hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management sustaining growth and profitability without reversing its recently raised guidance. A weakening jobs trend could increase recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.