Waters Corporation (WAT)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-15

$436.95-1.62%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Waters Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

16.50 → 16.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS near $14.5 per share	Adjusted EPS guidance is strong at about $14.5 per share.	Intact	Adjusted EPS falls below $13.5 per share	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue contribution from Becton, Dickinson assets of at least $520 million in Q1	The acquisition of Becton, Dickinson assets adds $520 million revenue in Q1, boosting growth.	Intact	BD asset revenue falls below $480 million in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue from acquired Biosciences and Diagnostic Solutions businesses increased from $520M in 2026-Q1 to $817M in 2026-Q2, reflecting integration progress and operational improvements. Management reiterates focus on seamless integration and synergy realization, delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Full-year 2026 revenue of about $6.42 billion	The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to about $6.42 billion.	Intact	Full-year revenue falls below $6.0 billion	Revenue: $1.645B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.42 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 20261,645,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fbbf4a09-c1b0-4ff1-a77d-7cfebd2b6f26. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.48

$16.45 → $16.48 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.13B

$7.10B → $7.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$16.45	$7,104,470,999	14 / 17
2026-07-25	$16.49	$7,110,645,470	24 / 23
2026-07-26	$16.45	$7,104,470,999	14 / 17
2026-07-27	$16.49	$7,110,645,470	24 / 23
2026-07-28	$16.45	$7,104,470,999	14 / 17
2026-07-29	$16.49	$7,110,645,470	24 / 23
2026-07-30	$16.45	$7,104,470,999	14 / 17
2026-07-31	$16.49	$7,110,645,470	24 / 23
2026-08-01	$16.45	$7,104,470,999	14 / 17
2026-08-02	$16.46	$7,104,470,999	14 / 17
2026-08-03	$16.49	$7,110,645,470	24 / 23
2026-08-04	$16.49	$7,110,645,470	24 / 23
2026-08-05	$16.46	$7,104,470,999	14 / 17
2026-08-06	$16.46	$7,104,470,999	14 / 17
2026-08-08	$16.57	$7,131,786,290	24 / 23
2026-08-09	$16.52	$7,123,879,553	14 / 17
2026-08-10	$16.52	$7,123,879,553	14 / 17
2026-08-12	$16.56	$7,116,732,110	23 / 23
2026-08-13	$16.52	$7,123,879,553	14 / 17
2026-08-14	$16.52	$7,123,879,553	14 / 17
2026-08-15	$16.52	$7,123,879,553	14 / 17
2026-08-16	$16.52	$7,123,879,553	13 / 17
2026-08-17	$16.52	$7,123,879,553	13 / 17
2026-08-18	$16.52	$7,123,879,553	13 / 17
2026-08-19	$16.52	$7,123,879,553	13 / 17
2026-08-20	$16.35	$7,109,169,979	13 / 17
2026-08-21	$16.52	$7,126,631,956	14 / 17
2026-08-22	$16.52	$7,126,631,956	14 / 17
2026-08-23	$16.52	$7,126,631,956	14 / 17
2026-08-24	$16.52	$7,126,631,956	14 / 17
2026-08-25	$16.50	$7,126,904,683	14 / 17
2026-08-26	$16.50	$7,126,904,683	14 / 17
2026-08-27	$16.50	$7,126,904,683	14 / 17
2026-08-28	$16.50	$7,126,904,683	14 / 17
2026-08-29	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	14 / 17
2026-08-30	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	14 / 17
2026-08-31	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	14 / 17
2026-09-01	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	14 / 17
2026-09-02	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	14 / 17
2026-09-03	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	14 / 17
2026-09-04	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	14 / 17
2026-09-05	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	14 / 17
2026-09-06	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	13 / 17
2026-09-07	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	13 / 17
2026-09-08	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	13 / 17
2026-09-09	$16.50	$7,126,896,042	13 / 17
2026-09-10	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	13 / 17
2026-09-11	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	13 / 18
2026-09-12	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-13	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-14	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-15	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-16	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-17	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-18	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-19	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-20	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-21	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-22	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-23	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-24	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-25	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-26	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-27	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-28	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-29	$16.50	$7,127,880,872	14 / 18
2026-09-30	$16.50	$7,127,892,910	14 / 18
2026-10-01	$16.49	$7,129,615,315	14 / 17
2026-10-02	$16.49	$7,129,615,315	14 / 17
2026-10-03	$16.49	$7,129,615,315	14 / 17
2026-10-04	$16.49	$7,129,615,315	14 / 17
2026-10-05	$16.49	$7,129,615,315	14 / 17
2026-10-06	$16.49	$7,129,615,315	14 / 17
2026-10-07	$16.49	$7,129,842,587	14 / 17
2026-10-08	$16.49	$7,129,842,587	14 / 17
2026-10-09	$16.49	$7,128,609,436	14 / 17
2026-10-10	$16.49	$7,128,618,527	14 / 17
2026-10-11	$16.49	$7,128,618,527	14 / 17
2026-10-12	$16.49	$7,128,618,527	14 / 17
2026-10-13	$16.49	$7,128,618,527	14 / 17
2026-10-14	$16.48	$7,128,611,000	14 / 17
2026-10-15	$16.48	$7,128,633,496	14 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	9
2026-06-01	15	9
2026-07-01	16	9
2026-08-01	17	9
2026-09-01	18	7
2026-10-01	18	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Aug 5

$460.00 → $500.00+8.7%

GuggenheimOct 1

$490.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsSep 21 · prior Jul 14

$425.00 → $515.00+21.2%

$0$283.25$566.50

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS near $14.5 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue contribution from Becton, Dickinson assets of at least $520 million in Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Full-year 2026 revenue of about $6.42 billionRevenue: $1.645B

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Waters Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

WAT is positioned as a durable compounder in the healthcare sector. The current thesis state reflects strong recent financial performance, but with medium confidence due to potential risks ahead.

What's priced into Waters Corporation

The market currently prices WAT at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that expectations are somewhat high. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that while the stock is expensive, it is justified based on its recent performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown strong execution by consistently raising revenue and earnings guidance. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for economic downturns affecting cyclical names like WAT.

What Waters Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain upward guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any cuts to guidance or worsening economic indicators could negatively impact sentiment.