Wabtec (WAB)

NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$286.82-0.33%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Wabtec’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.44 → 12.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash flow from operations improving	Free cash flow is improving modestly.	Intact	Cash flow from operations falls below $190 million next year	Cash from operations: $441M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash flow from operations >= $199 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 22, 2026441,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 17.5%	A primary condition in Wabtec's published investment case. The stated target is >=17.5% operating margin.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 16% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of about 13% YoY	A primary condition in Wabtec's published investment case. The stated target is >=13% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year	Revenue growth: 17.48% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=13% YoY revenue growth. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 22, 202617.479675 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1548f28b-cfe6-46e0-9dbe-d6d0cabea4b4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.61B in 2025-Q1 to $3.18B in 2026-Q2 (+21.8%). Adjusted EPS increased from $2.28 to $2.76 (+21.1%) over the same period. Multi-year backlog expanded from $22.3B to $30.9B. Management consistently emphasized sales growth, backlog strength, margin expansion, and acquisition integration, and the financials show delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.48

$12.37 → $12.48 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.45B

$13.37B → $13.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.37	$13,374,507,922	6 / 8
2026-07-25	$12.37	$13,374,494,490	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$12.37	$13,374,507,922	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$12.37	$13,374,494,490	12 / 12
2026-07-28	$12.37	$13,374,494,490	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$12.37	$13,374,507,922	7 / 8
2026-07-30	$12.37	$13,374,507,922	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$12.37	$13,374,507,922	7 / 8
2026-08-01	$12.37	$13,374,507,922	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-03	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$12.37	$13,374,494,490	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-09	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-10	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$12.37	$13,392,833,110	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$12.37	$13,392,846,545	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$12.44	$13,430,277,780	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$12.44	$13,430,277,780	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$12.44	$13,430,277,780	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$12.44	$13,430,277,780	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$12.44	$13,430,277,780	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$12.44	$13,430,277,780	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$12.44	$13,430,277,780	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$12.44	$13,430,277,780	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$12.44	$13,430,277,780	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$12.44	$13,430,344,447	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$12.46	$13,436,594,447	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$12.46	$13,436,594,447	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$12.45	$13,442,844,447	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$12.45	$13,442,844,447	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$12.45	$13,442,844,447	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$12.45	$13,442,844,447	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$12.45	$13,442,844,447	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$12.45	$13,442,844,447	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$12.45	$13,442,844,447	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$12.45	$13,442,844,447	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$12.45	$13,442,844,447	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$12.45	$13,442,844,447	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$12.45	$13,442,761,113	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$12.45	$13,442,777,780	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$12.45	$13,442,777,780	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$12.45	$13,442,777,780	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$12.45	$13,442,777,780	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$12.47	$13,442,777,780	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$12.47	$13,442,777,780	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$12.48	$13,449,786,076	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$12.48	$13,449,786,076	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$12.48	$13,449,786,076	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$12.48	$13,449,786,076	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$12.48	$13,449,752,743	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	2
2026-06-01	9	2
2026-07-01	10	2
2026-08-01	10	2
2026-09-01	10	2
2026-10-01	10	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash flow from operations improvingCash from operations: $441M
Operating margin near 17.5%Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth of about 13% YoYRevenue growth: 17.48%

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-10.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Wabtec outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

WAB represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth and margin improvement. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial results and a stable management team.

What's priced into Wabtec

The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, reflecting a premium. The market appears to have priced in a justified level of performance, with low expectations for significant downside.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, given management's consistent focus on sales growth, cash flow improvement, and margin expansion. Recent financial performance has been robust, with revenue and earnings showing significant growth.

What Wabtec hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like UNP, CSX, and NSC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support WAB's momentum; however, any negative guidance from them could pose risks.