Verizon (VZ)

NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$44.79+0.88%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Verizon’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.25 → 5.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS growth and raised guidance	Adjusted EPS rises to about $5.0 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.95 in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted EPS guidance was raised from $4.90-$4.95 in 2025-Q4 to $4.99-$5.04 in 2026-Q2, reflecting expected 6.0 to 7.0 percent growth. Actual diluted EPS was $1.20 in 2026-Q1 but declined to $0.92 in 2026-Q2, indicating some volatility but management maintains growth guidance. The trajectory shows raised guidance with mixed quarterly EPS results. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow growth and capital discipline	Free cash flow grows to $21.5 billion.	Broken	Free cash flow falls below $21.5B or capex rises above $16.5B in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Free cash flow grew from $8.8 billion in first-half 2025 to $10.2 billion in first-half 2026, a 16.0% increase. Capital expenditures are guided to $16.0-$16.5 billion for 2026. Management has consistently emphasized free cash flow growth and capital discipline, and the financials show delivering progress on these priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Complete Frontier integration and repay debt	A supporting condition in Verizon's published investment case. The stated target is Repay substantially all Frontier debt by end of 2026.	Intact	Frontier debt repayment not substantially complete by end 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 6 quarters. Verizon included Frontier results starting 2026-Q1, paid down about half of Frontier debt by 2026-Q1, and expects to repay substantially all Frontier debt by end of 2026. Integration and debt reduction are ongoing with visible progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Total mobility and broadband service revenue growth	Verizon grows wireless and broadband revenue about 3% yearly.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 2.0% in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Mobility and broadband service revenue grew from approximately $22.9 billion in 2026-Q1 to 2.8% growth in 2026-Q2, broadband net additions increased 12.3% in 2026-Q2, and total broadband connections expanded to about 17.1 million. The trajectory is delivering with consistent revenue growth and expanding broadband connections. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.25

$5.27 → $5.25 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$143.33B

$144.30B → $143.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.27	$144,302,488,770	24 / 21
2026-07-25	$5.23	$144,139,289,338	15 / 17
2026-07-26	$5.23	$143,817,745,128	15 / 17
2026-07-27	$5.27	$143,990,370,920	25 / 22
2026-07-28	$5.27	$143,990,370,920	25 / 22
2026-07-29	$5.24	$143,662,510,571	15 / 18
2026-07-30	$5.24	$143,662,510,571	15 / 18
2026-07-31	$5.27	$143,656,969,270	25 / 23
2026-08-01	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-02	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-03	$5.27	$143,656,969,270	25 / 23
2026-08-04	$5.27	$143,656,969,270	25 / 23
2026-08-05	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-06	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-08	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-09	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-10	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-12	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-13	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-14	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-15	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-16	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-17	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-18	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-19	$5.24	$143,408,462,304	15 / 18
2026-08-20	$5.25	$143,336,969,604	15 / 18
2026-08-21	$5.25	$143,336,969,604	15 / 18
2026-08-22	$5.25	$143,336,969,604	15 / 18
2026-08-23	$5.25	$143,336,969,604	15 / 18
2026-08-24	$5.25	$143,336,969,604	15 / 18
2026-08-25	$5.25	$143,336,969,604	15 / 18
2026-08-26	$5.25	$143,336,969,604	15 / 18
2026-08-27	$5.25	$143,336,969,604	15 / 18
2026-08-28	$5.25	$143,336,969,604	15 / 18
2026-08-29	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-08-30	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-08-31	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-09-01	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-09-02	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-09-03	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-09-04	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-09-05	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-09-06	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-09-07	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-09-08	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-09-09	$5.25	$143,336,966,313	15 / 18
2026-09-10	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-11	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-12	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-13	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-14	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-15	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-16	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-17	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-18	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-19	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-20	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-21	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-22	$5.25	$143,336,511,913	15 / 18
2026-09-23	$5.25	$143,289,814,130	15 / 18
2026-09-24	$5.25	$143,289,814,130	15 / 18
2026-09-25	$5.25	$143,294,616,310	15 / 18
2026-09-26	$5.25	$143,269,438,120	15 / 18
2026-09-27	$5.26	$143,334,088,823	15 / 18
2026-09-28	$5.26	$143,334,088,823	15 / 18
2026-09-29	$5.26	$143,328,818,308	15 / 18
2026-09-30	$5.27	$143,323,272,708	15 / 18
2026-10-01	$5.27	$143,323,272,708	15 / 18
2026-10-02	$5.27	$143,323,272,708	15 / 18
2026-10-03	$5.27	$143,323,272,708	15 / 17
2026-10-04	$5.27	$143,308,592,960	15 / 17
2026-10-05	$5.27	$143,308,592,960	15 / 17
2026-10-06	$5.27	$143,308,592,960	15 / 17
2026-10-07	$5.26	$143,319,966,440	15 / 17
2026-10-08	$5.26	$143,314,491,489	14 / 17
2026-10-09	$5.26	$143,314,508,289	14 / 17
2026-10-10	$5.26	$143,314,508,289	14 / 17
2026-10-11	$5.26	$143,367,583,703	14 / 16
2026-10-12	$5.26	$143,367,583,703	14 / 16
2026-10-13	$5.25	$143,272,414,773	14 / 16
2026-10-14	$5.25	$143,272,413,472	14 / 16
2026-10-15	$5.25	$143,329,020,373	14 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	14
2026-06-01	11	15
2026-07-01	12	15
2026-08-01	11	16
2026-09-01	11	16
2026-10-01	11	16

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinOct 13 · prior Jul 27

$47.00 → $45.00-4.3%

ScotiabankOct 9 · prior Jul 27

$52.50 → $50.00-4.8%

$0$28.88$57.75

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS growth and raised guidanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow growth and capital disciplinePublished status: Broken
Complete Frontier integration and repay debtDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Total mobility and broadband service revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Verizon outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth and free cash flow generation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management priorities.

What's priced into Verizon

The market currently prices VZ as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that investors may be cautious but see potential value in the stock.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities like growing wireless service revenue and maintaining strong free cash flow. Recent results show mixed quarterly EPS outcomes, but overall financial performance remains strong.

What Verizon hinges on

Key factors include the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which could benefit VZ, and the performance of sector peers like TMUS, T, and CMCSA. A reversal in guidance from VZ could negatively impact credibility.