NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth about 19% in 2026: Q2 FY26 revenue $4.0B vs $5.6B prior quarter; YoY growth not reported.
Vistra grows revenue about 19% next year. Free cash flow is $4.3 billion. It adds 4.5 GW capacity to meet demand. Partnerships boost growth in AI infrastructure.
Profit margins could shrink if costs rise. Free cash flow might miss $3.9 billion. Growth could slow if demand weakens.
The price is about 5% below our fair value near $163. Analysts expect 19% revenue growth. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median.
Breaks if: Capacity growth stalls or falls short of 4.5 GW by mid-2026
Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow to strengthen financial performance.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow. The current thesis state is mixed, as management execution is steady but there are risks from sector performance and management volatility.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with VST being relatively cheap compared to its peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential improvements in financial performance.
Fundamentals are likely to show consistent growth in Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow, as management has reaffirmed guidance. However, there is an elevated risk due to recent industry performance and a history of misses.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their priorities, particularly the completion of the Cogentrix acquisition and the share repurchase program. Additionally, performance of sector bellwethers will be critical in determining the overall momentum for VST.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has negatively impacted the outlook. Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, which is worth watching.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: FCF falls below $3.9 billion in FY26
Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow to strengthen financial performance.
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below $6.8 billion in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26
Focus on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow to strengthen financial performance.
In the next 1 to 3 years, VST's performance will depend on management execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
