Vistra Corp. (VST)

NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$152.02-1.39%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Vistra Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.22 → 10.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Add 4.5 GW capacity to meet rising demand	It adds 4.5 GW capacity to meet demand.	Improving	Capacity growth stalls or falls short of 4.5 GW by mid-2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow about $4.3 billion in 2026	Free cash flow is $4.3 billion.	Intact	FCF falls below $3.9 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $133M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: FCF between $3.9B and $4.7B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026133,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin about $7.3 billion in 2026	A supporting condition in Vistra Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Gross margin between $6.8B and $7.6B.	Intact	Gross margin falls below $6.8 billion in FY26	Gross margin: 23.53% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Gross margin between $6.8B and $7.6B. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 10, 202623.525019 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth about 19% in 2026	A primary condition in Vistra Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=19% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26	Revenue growth: -5.48% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=19% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026-5.482353 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a299b7b0-e763-4c3e-9a40-e4e02f4d6efa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.25

$11.27 → $10.25 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$24.63B

$25.26B → $24.63B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.27	$25,264,134,000	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$11.27	$25,264,134,000	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$11.27	$25,264,134,000	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$11.27	$25,567,102,667	10 / 9
2026-07-28	$11.26	$25,275,236,500	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$11.25	$25,459,546,030	10 / 9
2026-07-30	$11.16	$25,163,136,490	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$11.10	$25,687,781,990	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$11.03	$25,370,146,030	8 / 7
2026-08-02	$11.10	$25,687,781,990	8 / 9
2026-08-03	$11.10	$25,687,781,990	8 / 9
2026-08-04	$11.10	$25,687,781,990	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$11.01	$25,353,210,146	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$11.01	$25,353,210,146	8 / 7
2026-08-08	$10.93	$25,312,638,717	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$10.92	$24,918,079,550	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$10.93	$25,312,638,717	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$10.85	$24,918,079,550	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$10.93	$25,312,638,717	8 / 8
2026-08-14	$10.93	$25,312,638,717	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$10.93	$25,312,638,717	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$10.93	$25,312,638,717	9 / 8
2026-08-17	$10.93	$25,312,638,717	9 / 8
2026-08-18	$10.93	$25,312,638,717	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$10.93	$25,312,638,717	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$10.56	$24,968,515,649	8 / 7
2026-08-21	$10.56	$24,968,515,649	8 / 7
2026-08-22	$10.50	$25,008,692,987	8 / 7
2026-08-23	$10.50	$25,008,692,987	8 / 7
2026-08-24	$10.50	$25,008,692,987	8 / 7
2026-08-25	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-08-26	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-08-27	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-08-28	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-08-29	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-08-30	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-08-31	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-01	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-02	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-03	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-04	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-05	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-06	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-07	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-08	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-09	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-10	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-11	$10.22	$24,562,646,788	9 / 8
2026-09-12	$10.22	$24,562,646,787	9 / 8
2026-09-13	$10.22	$24,562,646,787	9 / 8
2026-09-14	$10.22	$24,562,646,787	9 / 8
2026-09-15	$10.22	$24,562,646,787	9 / 8
2026-09-16	$10.22	$24,562,660,121	9 / 8
2026-09-17	$10.22	$24,562,660,121	9 / 8
2026-09-18	$10.22	$24,562,660,121	9 / 8
2026-09-19	$10.22	$24,562,660,121	9 / 8
2026-09-20	$10.23	$24,525,282,129	9 / 8
2026-09-21	$10.23	$24,525,282,129	9 / 8
2026-09-22	$10.23	$24,525,282,129	9 / 8
2026-09-23	$10.23	$24,525,282,129	9 / 8
2026-09-24	$10.23	$24,525,282,129	9 / 8
2026-09-25	$10.13	$24,685,016,565	9 / 8
2026-09-26	$10.13	$24,685,016,565	9 / 8
2026-09-27	$10.13	$24,685,016,565	9 / 8
2026-09-28	$10.13	$24,685,016,565	9 / 8
2026-09-29	$10.13	$24,685,016,565	9 / 8
2026-09-30	$10.13	$24,685,016,565	9 / 8
2026-10-01	$10.13	$24,685,016,565	9 / 8
2026-10-02	$10.22	$24,710,682,128	9 / 8
2026-10-03	$10.22	$24,710,682,128	9 / 8
2026-10-04	$10.25	$24,641,389,495	9 / 8
2026-10-05	$10.25	$24,641,389,495	9 / 8
2026-10-06	$10.25	$24,632,576,995	9 / 8
2026-10-07	$10.25	$24,632,576,995	9 / 8
2026-10-08	$10.25	$24,632,576,995	9 / 8
2026-10-09	$10.25	$24,632,576,995	9 / 8
2026-10-10	$10.25	$24,632,576,995	9 / 8
2026-10-11	$10.25	$24,632,576,995	9 / 8
2026-10-12	$10.25	$24,632,576,995	9 / 8
2026-10-13	$10.25	$24,632,576,995	9 / 8
2026-10-14	$10.25	$24,632,576,995	9 / 8
2026-10-15	$10.25	$24,632,576,995	9 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	2
2026-06-01	19	2
2026-07-01	19	2
2026-08-01	19	1
2026-09-01	19	1
2026-10-01	20	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 5

$210.00New observation · no comparable prior

Williams TradingOct 2

$202.00New observation · no comparable prior

BernsteinOct 1 · prior Jun 16

$187.00 → $181.00-3.2%

$0$115.50$231.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Add 4.5 GW capacity to meet rising demandQualitative condition
Free cash flow about $4.3 billion in 2026Free cash flow: $133M
Gross margin about $7.3 billion in 2026Gross margin: 23.53%
Revenue growth about 19% in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Vistra Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on stable earnings and cash flow. The current thesis state is intact, supported by consistent management priorities and recent financial performance.

What's priced into Vistra Corp.

Valuation appears expensive compared to peers, with a premium of 0.89. The market seems to have priced in a justified level of performance, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some caution is warranted.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to increase Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow, with recent results showing consistent growth. However, the mixed execution on share repurchases and the pending acquisition of Cogentrix Energy introduces some uncertainty.

What Vistra Corp. hinges on

The thesis hinges on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector bellwethers like CEG, NRG, and TLN. Additionally, any guidance cuts from VST could negatively impact market sentiment.