VIAVI Solutions (VIAV)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$30.45+0.50%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge VIAVI Solutions’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	$450M–$460M	—
EPS	$0.4–$0.42non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Q2
Revenue	—	467.63M
EPS	—	0.403
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.89B
EPS	—	1.643
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.14B
EPS	—	1.951

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross profit rises to about $234M by 2026-Q3	Profit margins are improving, with gross profit rising $70.6M from late 2025 to early 2026.	Improving	Gross profit falls below $163.5M	Gross profit: $276.9M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$234M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 13, 2026276,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. GAAP gross margin improved from 56.3% in Q4 FY25 to 59.1% in Q4 FY26, a 280 basis points increase. Non-GAAP gross margin also rose 220 basis points year-over-year to 62.3%. Management's repeated emphasis on margin improvement is supported by these gains, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income grows to about $25M by 2026-Q3	Operating income also grew by $9.5M, showing better cost control.	Improving	Operating income falls below $15.3M	Operating income: $11M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$25M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 13, 202611,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $432M next quarter	A primary condition in VIAVI Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is ~$432M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $393M next quarter	Revenue: $443.1M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$432M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 13, 2026443,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1,084.3 million in FY 2025 to $1,518.3 million in FY 2026, a 40.0% increase, with Q4 revenue up 52.5% year-over-year to $443.1 million. Management's focus on diversification into datacenter and aerospace markets aligns with this strong growth, indicating delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$2.14B

Unavailable → $2.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$2,140,345,688	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$2,140,352,254	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$2,140,344,404	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	7	1
2026-07-01	7	1
2026-08-01	7	1
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross profit rises to about $234M by 2026-Q3Gross profit: $276.9M
Operating income grows to about $25M by 2026-Q3Operating income: $11M
Revenue grows to about $432M next quarterRevenue: $443.1M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

VIAVI Solutions outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

VIAV is a growth-focused technology business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a proven steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the evidence is mixed because the company remains loss-making on the value factor and risk is elevated.

What's priced into VIAVI Solutions

The valuation evidence describes VIAV as expensive versus peers, though confidence in that comparison is low. The priced-in assessment says the valuation concern is not part of a broader fragile setup, and the market appears to recognize strong recent momentum without evidence here of a specific earnings expectation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s stated focus on revenue growth and higher margins is supported by strong FY 2026 revenue growth and improved gross and operating margins. An August earnings beat and low estimated miss risk support the current operating picture, but a guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk, especially given a past deep miss.

What VIAVI Solutions hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and margin progress, including management’s diversification into datacenter and aerospace markets. Guidance is a key swing factor. Fed rate cuts and continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum, while weaker guidance could undermine confidence.