Vertex, Inc. (VERX)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.39+0.46%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Vertex, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.02 → 1.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$208M–$211M	—
EBITDA	$55M–$57Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	216.97M
EPS	—	0.228
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$825M–$830M	827.14M
EPS	—	0.82
Cloud revenue growth	18%	—
EBITDA	$206M–$210Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	914.03M
EPS	—	1.016

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Progress on AI-enabled transformation plan	A supporting condition in Vertex, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is progress score improves above 50%.	Improving	Progress score remains below 40% or declines	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management highlights the AI-First strategy improving engineering and customer workflows and strengthening leadership to accelerate innovation and growth. This aligns with the operational focus and transformation efforts described, showing delivering progress on AI-enabled transformation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operational efficiency improves to align with strategy	A supporting condition in Vertex, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operational efficiency progress score above 50%.	Improving	Efficiency progress score stays below 40% or worsens	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year 2026 revenue reaches at least $823.5 million	A primary condition in Vertex, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $823.5 million.	Intact	Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $823.5 million	Revenue: $203.97M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $823.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026203,970,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a35165a7-6910-4a66-a172-53da7c5e2b55. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.02

$1.04 → $1.02 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.91B

$0.92B → $0.91B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.04	$919,893,976	8 / 12
2026-07-25	$1.04	$919,815,450	15 / 15
2026-07-26	$1.04	$919,815,450	15 / 15
2026-07-27	$1.04	$919,815,450	15 / 15
2026-07-28	$1.04	$919,815,450	15 / 15
2026-07-29	$1.04	$919,893,976	8 / 12
2026-07-30	$1.04	$919,815,450	15 / 15
2026-07-31	$1.04	$919,893,976	8 / 12
2026-08-01	$1.04	$919,893,976	8 / 12
2026-08-02	$1.04	$919,893,976	8 / 12
2026-08-03	$1.04	$919,815,450	15 / 15
2026-08-04	$1.04	$919,815,450	15 / 15
2026-08-05	$1.04	$918,861,520	15 / 15
2026-08-06	$1.04	$917,986,133	8 / 12
2026-08-08	$1.02	$914,039,890	14 / 15
2026-08-09	$1.02	$914,039,890	14 / 15
2026-08-10	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-12	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-13	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-14	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-15	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-16	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-17	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-18	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-19	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-20	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-21	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-22	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-23	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-24	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-25	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-26	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-27	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-28	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-29	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-30	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-08-31	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-01	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-02	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-03	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-04	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-05	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-06	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-07	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-08	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-09	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-10	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-11	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-12	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-13	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-14	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-15	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-16	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-17	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-18	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-19	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-20	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-21	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-22	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-23	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-24	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-25	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-26	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-27	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-28	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-29	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-09-30	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-01	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-02	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-03	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-04	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-05	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-06	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-07	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-08	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-09	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-10	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-11	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-12	$1.02	$914,059,888	8 / 12
2026-10-13	$1.02	$914,033,221	8 / 12
2026-10-14	$1.02	$914,033,221	8 / 12
2026-10-15	$1.02	$914,033,221	8 / 12
2026-10-16	$1.02	$914,033,221	8 / 12
2026-10-17	$1.02	$914,033,221	8 / 12
2026-10-18	$1.02	$914,033,221	7 / 12
2026-10-19	$1.02	$914,033,221	7 / 12
2026-10-20	$1.02	$914,033,221	7 / 12
2026-10-21	$1.02	$914,033,221	7 / 12
2026-10-22	$1.02	$914,033,221	7 / 12
2026-10-23	$1.02	$914,033,221	7 / 12
2026-10-24	$1.02	$914,033,221	7 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	7
2026-06-01	9	7
2026-07-01	8	8
2026-08-01	7	8
2026-09-01	7	8
2026-10-01	7	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Progress on AI-enabled transformation planDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operational efficiency improves to align with strategyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Full-year 2026 revenue reaches at least $823.5 millionRevenue: $203.97M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-58.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Vertex, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

VERX is a recurring-revenue growth and operational-improvement story, with some traits of a turnaround. Its long-term thesis remains in a watch state: management is making progress on revenue and efficiency, while recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Vertex, Inc.

The evidence tags expectations as justified, with low fragility and a modest negative expectations gap. It does not provide peer valuation data, so whether VERX is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, revenue and annual recurring revenue increased from the first to the second quarter of 2026, while operating losses narrowed and adjusted EBITDA rose. Management says cost actions are improving profitability, but its AI-enabled transformation has mixed progress and recent financial performance remains weak relative to the industry cohort.

What Vertex, Inc. hinges on

The next guidance update is a key near-term test, since a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on recurring revenue growth and efficiency gains continuing, while interest-rate changes and results from major technology peers could influence the sector backdrop.