Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-23

$109.31-3.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Marriott Vacations Worldwide’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.61 → 9.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.46B
EPS	—	2.743
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.45B
EPS	—	8.759
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.66B
EPS	—	9.623

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EPS of $7.05-$7.80 in 2026	The company targets adjusted EPS between $7.05 and $7.80 for the year.	Broken	adjusted EPS falls below $7.05 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase contract sales to $1,815-$1,885 million in 2026	Marriott Vacations Worldwide aims to grow contract sales to $1.8-$1.9 billion in 2026.	Intact	contract sales fall below $1,760 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate free cash flow of $375-$425 million in 2026	Free cash flow is expected between $375 million and $425 million.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $375 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $66M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $375-$425 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202666,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.62

$8.41 → $9.62 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.66B

$5.40B → $5.66B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$8.54	$5,396,868,520	11 / 10
2026-07-26	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$8.54	$5,396,868,520	11 / 10
2026-07-28	$8.54	$5,396,868,520	11 / 10
2026-07-29	$8.54	$5,396,868,520	11 / 10
2026-07-30	$8.54	$5,396,868,520	11 / 10
2026-07-31	$8.54	$5,396,868,520	11 / 10
2026-08-01	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-08-03	$8.54	$5,396,868,520	11 / 10
2026-08-04	$8.54	$5,396,868,520	11 / 10
2026-08-05	$8.54	$5,396,868,520	11 / 10
2026-08-06	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-08-09	$8.91	$5,501,281,520	11 / 10
2026-08-10	$8.91	$5,501,281,520	11 / 10
2026-08-12	$9.17	$5,529,535,020	10 / 9
2026-08-13	$9.17	$5,529,535,020	10 / 9
2026-08-14	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$8.41	$5,396,959,201	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$9.53	$5,629,011,668	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$9.53	$5,629,011,668	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$9.53	$5,629,011,668	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$9.53	$5,629,011,668	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$9.53	$5,629,011,668	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$9.53	$5,645,457,409	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$9.61	$5,662,011,668	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$9.61	$5,673,828,789	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$9.61	$5,673,828,789	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$9.61	$5,673,828,789	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$9.61	$5,673,828,789	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$9.61	$5,673,828,789	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$9.61	$5,673,828,789	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$9.62	$5,673,828,789	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$9.66	$5,676,604,880	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$9.66	$5,676,604,880	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$9.66	$5,674,377,608	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$9.66	$5,674,377,608	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$9.65	$5,662,104,880	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$9.65	$5,662,104,880	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$9.62	$5,662,104,880	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$9.62	$5,662,104,880	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$9.62	$5,662,104,880	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	1	4
2026-06-01	7	1	4
2026-07-01	7	1	3
2026-08-01	7	2	3
2026-09-01	7	2	3
2026-10-01	8	2	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 22 · prior Aug 18

$65.00 → $63.00-3.1%

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Jul 14

$68.00 → $100.00+47.1%

SusquehannaOct 15 · prior Aug 18

$110.00 → $115.00+4.5%

$0$63.25$126.50

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EPS of $7.05-$7.80 in 2026Published status: Broken
Increase contract sales to $1,815-$1,885 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Generate free cash flow of $375-$425 million in 2026Free cash flow: $66M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Marriott Vacations Worldwide outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

VAC is an execution-dependent business with growth supported by rising contract sales and adjusted earnings guidance. The current long-term thesis is on watch: recent results and guidance improved, but performance remains below its industry cohort and the signal has shifted to mixed.

What's priced into Marriott Vacations Worldwide

The evidence calls VAC expensive overall, despite also describing it as cheap versus peers, so the relative valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, meaning weak execution quality alone is not viewed as a full stack of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s 2026 contract sales and adjusted EPS priorities are on track, supported by higher guidance and year-over-year growth in the latest quarter. Adjusted free cash flow is a mixed priority, and erratic recent earnings surprises remain a risk despite a low stated miss probability. The recent earnings beat and muted reaction have not removed concerns about performance below the industry cohort.

What Marriott Vacations Worldwide hinges on

The multi-year view depends on VAC sustaining its raised 2026 guidance without a reversal, which could damage management credibility. Cash flow delivery is another swing factor. Consumer Discretionary sector momentum may help if bellwethers LVS, DKNG, and WYNN keep beating and guiding higher, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.